MSM Industry News Intelligence
China’s expanding macadamia crop points to lower import demand
Mundus Agri reports that China’s 2026/27 macadamia crop is expected to rise by 12% to about 110,000 tonnes as young trees mature. Production remains concentrated in Yunnan and is spread across a large number of small farms, creating continuing challenges around yield consistency and standardisation.
The report expects rising domestic supply to reduce import demand further. African macadamias have benefited from zero tariffs since May 2026, while US and Mexican shipments face provisional anti-dumping duties, but tariff advantages may not offset the effect of China’s larger local crop.
The direction is therefore mixed for offshore suppliers: policy can improve relative competitiveness between origins, but the larger structural issue is how much imported product China needs as its own production expands.
Why This Matters
China remains central to global NIS demand. A larger domestic crop could limit import recovery and intensify competition between origins even where tariff conditions improve.
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