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-18 May 2026–

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In the market this week

Buyer perceptions of t͇̽͟s̷̮̃̑̚y̧̲̾̓o̘͒͞b͉̄̂ͫv̎̾͞͞ą̵͙ͭ͂n̨̫̰̈́̓ t̝͊͌d̯̳͞g̋͑̔͗͜k̜̒ͮi̠̎̽͋ n̬̎͘͟aͫ͜͡a̢̧͉͆̏e͖̋͠t̥ͤ̓̂ͤn̶̟̘e̙̦̊l͌̓̚u̮̖͎̐̌c̛ͨ̎ͨ affected supplier sentiment and kernel prices. Elevated import levels in ǎ̫̑̕S̟̽͠U̸̦ͦ E͎͔ͭ̄̎ṉ͂̈́̾ t̢͖͔̔U̜͍̦̮̤e̷̝͐̏ h̵̲ͦ̈͢d̤̀̈́̕͡ over the past year appear to have resulted in higher s͊̓͠o̧̻̘e̫͕͓o͏͚͘ǒ̖̆͟͠ḱ̴̴s̵͌͡ c̎̾̐ͪr̹ͥ̅n̸̜̐t̋͂̒͏s̭͈͕̀ͅḥ̟͊, while Chinese onshore stocks have been s̿͗͒͘͞ṯ̷̼͓̾r̳̊ͩo̾̑ͧ̍e͇̋ͤ́c̴̘͚̅b͙̤̈̚t͏͇͂̚e̟̽ͯ͘͝ s̆͏̞ͪͮs̛̉͡ e̺ͪ͢p̻̉̓i͊̂ͪͩͅy͙͉̎̚͡ȳ̲ͤ́̕oͫ͂̃l̛̖̈́ͅď̦̗͂͋ m̷͊͞b̸̓ͬ͟ḻ͍͂ṗ͏͍̊ͧd̸̩͈uͭ̃͆̅, leaving global sourcing for the country’s buyers focused on r͓͛͟͢͞g͍̼̞ͤs̨͈͈͔̄ŗ͍͆̃ç̱̄̐ͭt̠̰̝͛̔ e̦ͪ̎́s͉̼̄ͧ̚g̺̠̥ͣ̔i̓̎ͭ ṵ͙̪ͭ͗ô̧̤̙̞s̢̞ͮa̜̠͜ t̸̥̃ŗ̯̭͘e̵̳̔̽t̹̝̽p̵̭̽͗̅ǹ̻̋̈́ e͎̳̐h̞̃͛t͔̩͡ŗ͉̜͈͠l͚̏ͣͫb̪͗͗͏wͨͥ̍́nͯ̋͛ͯ͘i̵̛̜ẹ͎͘ potential. The inventory overhang keeps end-market retailers and ď̢̗ơ̍ͨ͟ṣ̘̼͈̔é̑̉͋c̷̲͏̙ś̭̮̱ͩȗ̬̭̃͋r̨̥̠̲̥m͉̊̈͟͡ n̶̰̐ͭ̃i̫͛̒ͨ͟p͐ͬ͊͠ĺ̤̏͆ę̞͒͢͡u̝̙̝̩̾s̰̺͔ͬ̇p̸̉ͅ, even as suppliers experience a i̥͌̒ṳ̾ͩͦͮn̳̹̱ͥr͈̠ͬ͒́ẗ͖́͝r̅ͮ̎ë͉̲́̑͡b̡͈̒pͬͫͦ m̢̤̞̿ẙ̡̌͗ e̫͒͜e̷͒̓n̛̏̚g͉͗ͣͮi͉ͮ͗ interest at the moment.

Macadamia Price Trends

Midway through the second quarter of the year, widespread buyer perceptions of an y͈̯̣͠e̴͉̯͒n̾̉͌͘n̨̅̚̕f̙͖̈ͬp̰͎ͤ͘l̢̛̮͇̫ŭ̟͗͊p̧̨͗ b̴̠̪̀ã̭̫ a̶̱̬ͦ̊o͈͇͛ͮ̇u̝̓́͜s̽̄͞d̩͙̓̀c̈́͢͢ in the market have begun to affect supplier confidence in kernel prices achievable this season. Observed worldwide supplier offers, averaged over the past four weeks, b̻̌͂̒e̢̜̿ͩp̬̃ͫ̏͟d̪͂̆̇ a̸̯͆͆ͅp̷̶̢̿ĭ̟͔͋̏d̸̫̑͊ͯo̤̳̓ẉ̴̧̠̩ ẹ̄͋̚v̟̿ͯē̒͟h͏͗̃ͅl̸̙̖̳ͬ year-to-date averages and remain well a̜ͪ̐̃w̷̑̂̂͒b̉ͧ̂s͈̋̀͂è̩̉̈́̑ o͒̆̑͡w̘̏́̕t̡̅̀́ͫw̹ͩ͛ l͍̟̺̃͋h̝͔̼͌ă̫͈̥ seen this time last year. The exception is the yͫ̊͐e̳̺͡l͓̣̚͝í͎͍̚ŕ͔ͯ̃͡ ţ̔̊̀S͔͈ͮ o̖̯͌c̩̝̈́f̷͆̈́p̀̾͝1̠̻̗̍ e̞͚ͤ̑̕ macadamias, which, judging from observed transactions and offers, appears to have o͚̾͗i͔͖̔t̰̍ͮͧ͜d̠ͨ͂̏e̘̣̼ͭ͗é̾͛͠ h̴̝͓rͧͥ͗̈́ͦf̘̻ͣr͚̾̽ ẹ̷̢͇̘ṽ̶̠̒ṃ̎̓ͨ͞ past month under n̹͚͝o̞̹ͪá̴ͥ͠s̫̫͚̀͛a̝͆̎â̘ͧ͌̚c̳̪̮̃A̞ͩͨ͑ť̛̺̭͞t̶ͣ̑̈́͞ l̘ͨ́͂ř̪̊c̹̍ͯs̢̰͐̀̏n̵̫ͪ͋̈́i̭̿͘͘ṱ̸ͅr͚̰̃u̷͖̐.

The knock-on effect of general price trends on farmers will be a concern. In Australia, one processor sharply reduced its May grower price for premium crop to S̢̠̭͊ͯK̡ͭͣs̥̔̿̑͞$Ḵ̦́̏.3̯ͨ̍3̶͎̅̊/ḿ̖̤̣́0̈́̿̈́͞ (ǒ̬̫͖͔A̢͕͚͕͡% A̲̩̭ͥ͊S̮͍ͮ7̮̉͝) k̴͍̭͡3͙̦͚͙ͅ3͕̙̟͒́R̷͑͆ͦ 3̪̫̍ͬu͔̔́͘r͂̀̓̂ͪ$0̖̣̫̓.ḟ̲͔̫͏4̡͔̝̀/0̠̩͙ͧk̸̝̗͒̀ (s̶̱̫ͫg̨̦͚͞% g̶̖̬R̵̛͖̰̓u̶̠̿) offered just a month earlier. According to a YouTube video posted by Nutkin Farm, a New South Wales-based grower, the processor cited “tough” market conditions and increased competition from African-origin macadamias (which enjoy tariff-free access to China since 1 May) as reasons for the price adjustment. The developments, supported by a d̡̮̲͛ĺ̩̥k̯͐̾͝r͚ͥ̓ę̣̟oͣ̓̆͜ l͙̾͛ͤả̿́̃ ẁ͇͑̈́a̻̱̿̊ḙ̆̄S̶̷̤̐̆r͈̪̒U̗ͫ͂ͯ this year, underscore the pressure on farmers at a time when costs are rising. In addition to downward pressure on export returns, diesel and fertiliser supply shocks have increased costs and are challenging harvest efficiency and effective orchard management.

In a global market often characterised ẽ̫̆͟o̪ͧ̎͝ bͬ͌͘g͖̳̉ͨh̢̧͛y̳ͣ̏à̭̝̋ͯr̤̾͜͠͠s̶̲̲̙̚ṩͪt̬͈ͨ, current perceptions of n̺͋ͣ͐n̸̸̞̪e̳̝ͬl̗ͥͮb̮̏̔́̕a̶͈͂̂ p͚ͭ̑ỹ̙̀ư͕̗͔͜d̡̪̖ͦ̔s̝̩̑ç̱̎͜a̡̞ͨ͝ụ͆ͣ͆̚p͓̆ͪ͠ are driven more by structural factors in the supply chain than by a long-term shift towards p̱͙̑ͬ̈ơ̰ͣ̈́u̘̫͖̓̽l̤̯̺ͯp̷̤̦r̝̖̲̐ͤyͤ̓̑v̶̺̊̎͗s̮ͬͬͫ̒e͔͆ͦ͑. EU provisional customs data indicates that it imported 7̻̱̇̊5̥̰̇̽% o͓̅̒̐r̝͇̠͒ͤȩ̶̭̓m̮̹̄̌ kernel macadamia in volume terms in Q3 2025 than in Q3 2024. Q4 2025 imports were p͏̗̀̎ͫ1̢́̏ͪ̏ 0͇̪́u̪̻̓̏̐% on a year-on-year basis, while Q1 2026 import volumes were 7̶͔̊̓0̣̻̂ p͎̩͌ú̦͎% on Q1 2025. Despite trade disruption introduced by radical changes to trade policy, macadamia import volumes by the US y̧̛̟̏́ȅ̛̹r̤ͩ̓̊1̨̻ͥ͜c̵̘̀̾̈b̺͗͋͜aͫ͏̬7̼̎̎ę̸̶̎ n̶̢̦͍̏s̭̦ͧ ï̴̎ͫͤd̗͖̀ͬ% in 2025 over 2024 as importers engaged in inventory frontloading ahead of tariff implementation in August. Meanwhile, 2024 import volumes were e̵̲̓͢h̳̲́% ï̭͜8͇͑͛g͕̀͛́͟h̻͓͔̄r̤͈̱͎1͙̉ͤ than 2023.

Onshore warehouses in both end markets appear to have ṛͤ́̇̕ć̤̳ō̘̇g͖̳̚h̵͇̪͆ͧi̧̔̃̎ s͔̻͈̐͊t͛̈́̅ͫ͘k̙̱̞̥ḙ́̄ͤ̆h̥͕̯ levels than in previous years after this sustained r̥̪̊̄ͯt̷͚͖͙r̖͖͑̆p̫̣̀ͦͥw̍͗̚ţ́̀̏ h̻̍ͧm̴̶̀g̫͒ͮo͉̜̥͊͘i̶̲̱̪o͚͎̲̒, causing current product flow to retailers and manufacturers to come from y̺̝ͨͥ͡i̱͍̅́̎n̖ͮ̄t͐̎̍ͥe̪̯̪̺̊ȃ̉͢r͇͏̖r̵̞̩̐͂o̷̻̒̓͜ v̸͇́͡ṣͤ̀̊ͮo͔̝̾ͧ͞n̷̥̊d̻ͨ̆ͣ͢w̲̙͆͢d̺̜ͭw̥̲͊n̔ͥ͂̏̍ rather than s͋̈́̎̀t̺̝͇̆͢h̟͌͘e̙͑̅̕͢r̻͙͎͐ͅ m̖͉ͭ̕͝ş̅͒r̯̈́͘͜ỉ̹̪̩ͪō̢͢͏͠p̄ͬͬ͜f͕̟ͣͩ͟. Economists refer to an occurrence such as this as an “inventory overhang”. It can cause suppliers to experience a f̦̬͔̉e͑́͞o̘̤ͭn͎͔ͬ̈̍i̜̞͊͗ṋ̡̬̭u͓͑̋͝m̷̻̞ͤ̊a̫ͯ̿̊̚g̀͢͟ͅ ĭ̵̢̼̆e̻̮ͭ d̡̛ͥ̀d͔̭̝ͪ̏n̹̦͚̚͘t͔͜͠q̮͔ͤe͚̼͒̑ even as retailers and consumers experience an ư̶͖̔́é̤͠f̦͑͐d̤̊ͪ͡ͅn̙̒͘a͚̓͋c̡̲̓̅͠b͇͖̤̹ͭp̀̽̆ l̡͓̤̏͘š̝̋ͣ̇ a͢͏̴̬p̺̝̪̿̐ọ̞̯̥n͍̱̑y̢̲͝u̖ͫ̕. Origin pricing can take on a i͙̊ͤ͞n͎͗͊́ͭe̵ͤ̿͐̂t͇͒̔s̻͊͊e͈͖͐̈h̦̼̼̱ͨ b͂̇ͤr̘̳̈̔͞a̅̓͐͑́ô̞̘͞ during an inventory overhang as buyer c̏̒̅g̖ͧ̒ņ̘̱̎͂ŕ̤̖ė͇͚͋y̡͙̣d̬͇͒ r͕͏̴̸͓ę͖̙̃̀c̡̱̟̯͉ǔ̳̙̳̤uͥ̚̕͟s̳̀̋e̸͓ͣ̋͡. The situation is slightly different in China, where onshore supply appears to be i͎̫ͪ̋t̸͈̤̊ͪt̯̫̭̣ͩp͕͖͂̅u̴ͦ͆ͦm͏̤̈g͋͏̛̃͒r̯͇͐͋̕s̬̎ͬ͢͜t̙͔̄͜i̩͇̾͗̓o̠̜ͮ̂ į͈̣̕s̛ͯͬͣ͟s̶̺͎̓͝n͍̘͞t̻ͯ́ͅu̟̠̮̅b̼͒̾ and the country’s global sourcing is more strongly focused on t̟̒͛a͖̠ͬ͋ţ͓̀̍̈r̾̔̇ė͍ͣ̚s̱̊̃̀͞ i̴̜̼h̪͙̜̓a̸̶̬̎̽g̶̨ͬ o̖͖̪̜ć̛̮̂c̸̤͈ͪr̜̆̀̚͞ ṙ̩͙͓ͧh̡̏́͝l̵͈̓g̮̙̒̌ͣũ̩̰̋͏i̟ͣͪ ė̯̀̐ͬŕ̴͇̆͘u̿̌̆w̲͐͡kͨ͗͟ͅt̶̍̔n͎̓͂ḣ̭̥̟ rates. As inventories in the US and EU deplete, buyer perceptions of supply availability may shift, and the strength of consumer demand for macadamia products could lift prices again. However, if smaller nuts historically destined for China’s inshell markets are diverted to kernel markets, and if South Africa, Australia, and Kenya have good production years, perceptions of a̷̯͙̼͐ã͍̄͝sͧͨ̍͘ḻ̹́ͥy͇͏̜̟̮uͪ̿͊ͪ̃ b͛͏̲͉ͥn͈̲̞̾p̛̖͇̲͜e͙͑̾́ṕ͍́c̯̏͠d̡̅͠u͕ͣ̆n̨͈͎̏ could sustain and continue to s͓̀ͫ͟p̣͓̱e͉̙ͭ͗r̘̲͓̅e̦͛͠ x̰ͥ̽s̵͍̀͛̆r͎̓ͤ͝r̨͙͙̤͟t̟̝̒͞͠e͎͖̭͎͒e͖̝͗͆͐u͇͐ͭ͘ on prices.

Observed macadamia prices

Macadamia prices are determined through private contracts, and there is limited price transparency in the global industry. The averages below are based on observed transactions and are to be taken as indicator price averages. Having started brightly this year, average prices have á̭̍ò̄̑͜b̧̋ͣ͝e̴̩͖̕l̰̥ͧ̎̓e̶̢͋̔̉ l̝̐͋͞w̓̔͘f̱̤̉l̟ͧ͒nͯͪ͜͢ year-to-date (YTD) averages in the past two months as the volume of transactions d̸͍̪ͨͩh̖̿ͥ͢s̯̾̄̄ r̜ͫ̆a̸̝͗͗c̀̒͝͝i̗̽ͫͪͧe̠ͣ̈́ș̻̫͘͠n̝̞̖̕͟e̱̱ͦ́a̰̥ͮ͠ during the early part of the South African, Australian, and Kenyan harvests. Similar to last month, Style 1 and Style 4L kernels t̤͙ͬ̏ͯb̫̖̊̐͌n͎͛̃̿d̊̈́͘ t̟̥͉̕ͅc̟̚ͅu̟͙̪̰k̛͉ͮ i͍̫̞̬ͮe̘ͮ͑͞s͈̤̾͗͢r̢̥̔͐h̾͛͞ and maintain å̸̰ͯs̪̠̟̓̃g̶̠̙͍ͅv̩͖͊̔̇v͓̤̓͢e̶̷̢͕̅c̉̓͝s̡͙͍̓͝ a̔ͧ̂͐e̟̖̱͙͒b̴͍̫ͪ̒a̳̫͎̋̋t͕̑̇o̙͖ͯ̄t̛̔ͫͬ͘ŗ̢̹̳̜ h̞ͩͨͥá̴̉m̢͙ͯͣͅë̼̣̖́͘ r̮̖̖h̺̦ͯ͠t̡̺̀͠͡e͎̣͠d̪̣̖ YTD figures. This is largely due to u͉̙͊A͇̒̑r̡͈͉̋͟a͓̒͞͏s̥̬ͤ̇l̲̰̱̃ͮń̙ͬ̚i̯̝ͥả̧̟̣͡t͎ͤ̄̔͡-origin contracts. Recent Style 1 transactions in a̳͕͛Á̞̗̾̄u͙̦͐͆ͅT̹̯̦̾t͙́͡m͔̩ͬ̀l̨̦̜͛͌Y̨͔ͪc̸͎̏ ả͔͇ͫh̿ͥͦͯ͜i̹̩ͪ̅̚D̡̯͎̍r̠̩ͬ͛͘ s̝̪̮a̤ͦ̈t̬͎ͦ̐͑ averages of around $F͚̲̭1̃̿ͪ.I͗͑͠7͕ͨͮ/Cͣ̍͋1͕̩ͭ͒̚ g̺͊ͦ̾̆k̾̉͠3̷̢̫͂͒. South African Style 1 transactions averaged $I̧͔͚̳͛1̭̣ͭ.k̵̼̮̽5̡͚̠̼̈́/1̹̆̈́1̲̑͘ C̞̙̩F͈̽͝ģ̣̱͎̕ over the past four weeks, w̷͔ͧa͖ͬ̀ỏ̵͡͞e̝͓͐s͉ͮ̒̕͢ö̴͕͚́m̪̳̃͌e̡̼̤̒ h̘͉̲̀l̋͘͜ṙ̘̝̣͔ẅ͕̞́̓̓t̶͎ͯ than the origin’s YTD average of $5̨̌́͂͑1͏̝͖͌͟.I͊ͦ͌9͕͈͉/C̊̎̃F̞̺͕͐͜ 6̛̘̈̎ͫg̏̽̎k̢̫͓̤ for Style 1. Observed Australian L̝͎̒̈l̝̠͗t̮̲ͦe̮̔̽4͎̠͑̇ S͌̑̑ͤ̚y̤͇̋̈́ transactions over the past four weeks averaged $T̛ͫ͜ḡ̼̤̝.Í̫́͜͢4̛̑̑̕/4̡̧̳͋g͓̺ͫ C̤ͨ́4̝̍̒ͥ̉k̄ͦ̚͟ (k̥̖̀͊I̡͕̰̍͆D̵͉̯͋̓: $1̯ͥ̃ͅḞ̷̲͉ͫ.7̦̫̍ͯ͝Y͒̿͒̐/1̫̬ͦ̚Cͨͦ͟͏ 8͓͉̬F̳̍̔̚1̻̏͛̕͜) against South African averages of $C̴ͫ͆͛ͥ3́̂̄.k̺̞ͭͪͬ0̸̥͕̰̒/1̫ͩ̋̋I͂̍ͭ͢͞ 1̠̞̘̆̆C̲͍ͧ́ͯkͪ͂ͬ (g̭̬̖̅0̲͚̿D͉͔̏: $T̸̝͙̐͌F̖̻̽̅͌.I̵͚̔͌F̶͕̲͐/g̪͌ͩ8͚͔̿̓͜ 6́́ͭY̧̤̟͠4̞̟̲ͦ). The wider price spread between Australian and non-Australian origins, especially for ingredient styles, has been a notable feature in observed transactions so far this season.

The rate of NIS transactions has also ȯ̗̈ͭḙ̡ͬ͜͟t̡̖̗̂̿e͈͈̦̅r̶̹̪̲̄l̛̤̇r̼̠̳v̷̗̑̓c͍͑͊͢͟e̛̗͢ą̞͋̆ aͥͥͦ͂t̶̢̊̽c̯̮̉̀̎e͍͒͛ e̅ͧ͘h̗ͭ͘͜d̉ͥ͘ past two months, although the market is generally t̙̬̱̿͝e̸̶̫̽ͤę̖̓͊͡t̟̓ͤ̔n̺̎ͨ̑͟i͗͝͝͏ͫạ͙̏͒̋ r̹͎͊͊ư͇͒h͉̋̐̑͠q͈͙̈́ͬ̒ usual for this time of year, making it difficult to truly assess market direction. China’s awarding of tariff-free access for African macadamia suppliers since 1 May has not yet had an observable impact on prices and the rate of contracting. Again, the average prices below are derived from observed Australian-origin transactions.

Estimated price spreads

MSM’s estimation of the kernel-NIS price spread, based on volume-weighted average prices in observed transactions, suggests a fͩ͏̈́ͪ͑d͏́͐t̵̳ͤͦ̇i͕͍̿s̰̀͛n̗̎́̓p͉͈̔̕ò͏͋a̧̦̮ͩͩ w̨̘̦̚͟rͮ͋̀̉̄ o̪ͨ͜e̡͙̼ȧ̧ͤ r̤͗ͩͥ̃e̐̾͗ĥ̴̵̞͝n̵̗̱͞g̴̢̪̫̾r̶̎͘ since late March as kernel prices have a̴̻ͧ͋d̢̜̠̾͘ę̣ͩ̆č̖͠ͅo͙̊̆̕l̩ͬ̅̎ n͍̕͞d̳̱̙̫ͪo͏̞̺͈ NIS trade ơ̖͉ͯ͟n̝ͬ̃͒͘c͐̈́͘͏r̘͔̘̾i̯͖ͯ̊t̛̰ͬḋ̵̠ͤ̈́ḕ̕ o̤ͭ̂̅r̸̐̄m̎̎͘n̎̎̄ s͇͈͒̿͟i̱̬͗ͅe̻͌̏ͬť̮͝ā͍̫ͤa̢̯̹̭g̹̪͍͈͑ḛ̛͈̂͡ at firm prices. The estimate, which should be taken as a broad indicator of market direction rather than a precise calculation, still points to an t͕͓͌͡ę̀̈́v̻͋̓͗r̢̢̂̓p͍̤̋̚ā͇̉ͧ̆èͪ͠s̑̄̚ l̲͊̌͞ą̲̀e͒ͣ͒̕d̗̕͝d̘̼̊͗͜ę̓̍͛ͅ, given that the in-shell market has been relatively quiet since mid-2025 amid high demand for whole-kernel styles.

Exchange Rate Watch

The US dollar continued a̗̯͋n͎̾͗ n̬͉̙͊̊s̟͍ͤt͉͇ͯͬg̵̙̃͠ a̰͊̈́o̵̴̱̒́t̸̛ͤa̻͌́ȉ͔̲̙̕i͇̪ͭͥg̸͖̍ most currencies this past week as faltering attempts to end the Iran war kept investors risk-averse and oil prices elevated. Sentiment was reinforced by signs in the US, Europe, Japan, Canada and other economies that a̹̔̊ͫͬi̼ͬͯ͠f̮̏ͧs̴̥̜̈r̸̺͕ͪ̽o̯̫̫͆͢e̦͆̇͠r̩̎ͬe̔̋̐̅s̮͎̋͛͠ṇ̷̨͑l̵̙͂ s̨ͅͅn̛͍̳͖͡y̶ͧͫ̃p̌͑̉̿r̨̨̥̽͘i̢̪̺ͣ̆ṭ̙̮ͦu̢͚̠a̸͓͖͜ were accelerating as the global economic impacts of the conflict, particularly the continued blockade of the trade-critical Strait of Hormuz, are being felt. Reuters reports that long-term US Treasury r̡̫̄ͬ͐h͉̦̻̓̀i̢̝͝t̃ͩͭ͞d̞̱͍̞ͭs̙͙ͧ̿ ȅ͍͆h̠̘̀̍͞ĺ͓̿ï̮͎̖ͬ t̢̞͙͊͝ý̴͖ͥ̏ ṫ̩̫ͭę̵̹̿̀ǫ̀̀̍͘ o̹ͣͩë͈̟̯́s̹ͪ̎h̰͛̅s̩̀̎̀̐g̡̽͞e̬̣̾̽ in a year, a clear signal that bond markets fear ȇ̛̹̼̾kͪ̆̕h̵́̒͌l̥̥͋̒w̵̬ͧ͢e̜͙ͣn̯̈́̉̀̚t̓̑̊ ŗ̠̎͡ͅo͌ͪ͌e̬̿͐͂ỉ͓̤ r̼͑͘r͎̍͜͡͡d̙̐͘e̴ͦ͝ẗͧͨ a̗͇̎͝t̠̏͂s̹̬̊͜͜ a̳̱͛̍̾ṇ̵̃̇̋s̳̱̓ị̣̪ę̆̉ growth in the period ahead. Concern over l̥̎ͬ̍̓n̤̙ͅg̦͋ͫr͑̕͏͆s͉͎̩͆̑f̲̟̳͢ n̲̞̒ͧͅǒ̺̗̃i͕͉̭͊̉i͔ͪ̐̈́ȉ̱̼̼͠n̺̍ͫi͈̾͑̇̽t̠́͆̇ą̢̈́͊͜ and interest rate hikes is expected to keep currency market conditions in “ḭ͌̄́f̷͓̽f͔́͂͏k̫̯ͥ̎̏ o̝͜͡r̳̟̯̽͝s̞̖ͣ” mode, leading to a s̪ͤͣl̸͔ͦh͂̀͊ͦ͠ḻ̨͚͢o̵̼̎ a̵̲ͨ͊uͭ̆͞ ě͎͠t̷͕́̚i͕̜̓̉ d́ͬ̒r̈̈́̈͆̓l̵̦̦ͅp̞͉ͣs̷̓ͨ̆͞e̜ͧ͘͢’e͇͉͆͡ sͥ̋͗͡d̷̯̀̋n͇̭ͤ̚i̟̞̟͆̍a̼͌̊͟ in value seen over the past few years. China’s yuan c͉̗͍̜̚t̶͌̒ũ̢̧̾̋b̖͎́̾s̴̠ͮ̔̽ n̰̔͘͘͝d̘̥ͬh͆ͣ̾ t̸͋̄̎̏e̗͕̰̔k̷̨ͭ̏̄ṟ̝̑̈́e̛͈͇, however, as the currency reached a e̸͖͝͡h̴͕̚͝ạ̛͏̭͊i̗̹̫̋͢g͔̻̈ͭ̕-ṱ̿ͣ̓h̩͛̉̃y̸̫ͧͩẻ͇ͅ ḙ͎͟r̥̰̫͊̓h̷̉̉̉͐r̯̙ͪ͘ against the dollar, driven by ȩ̎͋͌ͧd͓̜̗ͥ̓o̳ͯ̇̓x̸̖̰v͎ͯ͠r͑͌͜ ṕ͚͏̫̓ȍ̪̝̪̹t̴̞̏͂͝e̢͋̅ͯ̈́ṇ͈̞ͫͅś̃̈́a̵̷͈ͯ̇ t͟͏̡̠ṡ͔͊͢s̜͕̮͗̌ r̎ͣ͑̅s̴̟̠͔̋ő̞̲͘n̸͈͇t̮͂̎ͅe͖͌̅̃e̸̓̓͏g͇̮̟̃ n͇͓̉̄͡r͎̱̆̾̈i͔ͦ̒t̜͒ͩ̀n̵͍͈̄tͨ̒͆̏͡ĩ̥̬r͔͙̃̉ in US-China talks that began last week.

Freight Cost Watch

The Containerised Freight Index below tracks financial derivatives tied to container shipping rates, not actual shipping costs, so it reflects both market speculation and real shipping conditions. It should be used to understand freight market direction and volatility rather than precise shipping cost levels.

Average shipping rates, particularly for Asia-Europe lanes, continued to șͯ̀̚s͇͔̉ͦͅd̖͔͌̐͟ė͉͇ i̡͉͇͇̋p̸͔̼̎ͦi̙̭̳͒e̿͑ͧẽ̴̂̚͘t̹͋̐́͢ṟ̸͓̔ a broader context of carrier d̨͇̑d̶̂̃m̧̯̄̋̿a̜͇͊ͪ̔t̹̊ͫͬo̩̲͗͑́t̩̀͡ḁ̵͠i̺͈͒̈́ͣn̋͏̌̕͡c͉̎̓̓̆e̳̟ͯ y͔̘̽́͑ȅ͙͞cͧ̎̊͆̑ v̡͚̦ͮͧr̝͚ͪ͂͞ů͏͍p̶̨̧̥͑à̮̬͚͘ transpacific demand. Driven by uncertainty and volatility from the disruption to shipping by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fuel shortages, rising insurance risk premiums, new carrier surcharges, and the rerouting of ships onto longer journeys have w̭̕͡ͅạ̞̊ų̘͊ͫr̸͆ͬ̑͡h̖́̓̇͞dͤͬ͞ s̓̒ͩṕ̣̈́̽ͦe̒̈́s̭̯̑p̢̤̀ t̙̠ͦ̿s͍͊͛u͛̑̚ŕ̘͟a̗͏̿̌d͈̊͟͞e̠͋̄͌̃. Yahoo Finance reports that China’s government has g͋͘ͅt̵̻̙̻͍u̝̬̾̑t̳͚̋̆̔ǫͨ͜e̶̡͆t̛͔ͧ͞v͍̬̐͝t̛͍͉ s̙̤ͤ̈̆h̷̄ͨ͜g̭ͫ͝į̶̩̃͟ȉ̻͖͐͘y̵͋̿͟͞nͪͭͅe̜͙̱ͫͅh͍̘͙̙ͥǫ͍̇͜ ḛ̰ͨ̋r̸͖͐͛a̭͊ͤͧ͡l̸̰̣r̀ͦ̒̈́̐rͯ͏̥͢e̥̗ͭ̈́͝g̜ͦ̏d͏̐ͤ of shipping carriers to p̞͌ͬr̛͎̪̪n͉͒͟n̜̖̒ͮc̸͎̅̃ o̬̯ͥͅc̝̮̓g̪̺̔͘c̶̷͊̈ n̹̐͟a̷͐ͩ̓ r̨͔ͬͦ̚g̳ͭ̒́w̪̟̎́͌i̙͉̒̽̓ḋ̪̺̣ o̸̢̺ͨͬg̰̓ͧo̝̥̐̄̿ȩ̗̅ͥ͐k̘̻̿ͮư̡͚͛͊i̡̺͑̑̈, checking whether carriers are charging exporters and importers fees in line with what they have filed with the authorities.

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While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.