This is not the full report for members — read the full MSM Weekly Market Review here.
-19 January 2026–
Dear readers,
It’s a new year, and we wish all traders the very best as you navigate market conditions this year to secure the best prices at the right times for your business.
The MSM platform enters its third calendar year of operation in 2026, and by now, you’ve had the opportunity to see the advantages it brings. This year, make sure your business benefits from transparent price discovery, market signals, and reduced transaction costs that the platform offers by listing your offers or orders. There is no cost to these listings. The platform will continue to work only with vetted buyers and suppliers, to independently verify food safety and quality assertions, and to provide an escrow facility, smart contracts and dispute resolution mechanisms to provide assurance to traders. The trading year is upon us, let’s go!
Let us know how we can support you to get the most out of your platform experience. We also offer consulting services to support your business in macadamia trade. Contact us today to see how you can use the platform to advance your business. Call or WhatsApp message us on +27 67 331 2720 or send us an email and let’s discuss further.
In the market this week
A quiet week for global macadamia trading as the market looks to o̞ͭ͛̑̓n̘͌ͦ̓͂ȁ̤́ẹ̗͕̀͞t̶̫̬̿ͅes̵̈ͪ͡r̤̖̆ͭ̓ r̗̤̊͠u̙̐͡p̷̺͙͋͢a̽ͭ͘͢k͗̉̈́̑͗E̳ͬ̉m̦͙ͩͨ͠ to continue their strong demand and hopes that lower ingredient style prices attract greater demand ã̳͢a͗͗̉p̯̊͒̏͜ẖͥ͑i̯͑̃̾͊ ê̢̛͞e̩͈͊͜s̙͓̀̐͋t̶̎ͩ͌̊i͐̀ͮ A̼̳͛l̬ͦ͟t̡̳͓̄̑en̶͙͓͖ͭp̄̌ͫw̪͇ͫi̮ͯ̀͝ for NIS recovers into the year ahead.
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Macadamia Price Trends
The charts below compare average prices for different styles and sizes of the most recent five-week period for which transactions have been observed. Given the quiet nature of December and January for transactions, only kernel transactions for a few styles have been noted in recent weeks. The graph below gives average prices for Style 1, Style 2 and Style 4L for different five-week periods, depending on when the latest transactions were observed. For Style 1 and Style 4L, the period covered is Week 51 of 2025 to Week 3 of 2026. For Style 2, the period covered is Weeks 46 to 50 of 2025.
The MSM platform currently has 46.5t of Style 1 from South African and Kenyan origins offered at an aggregated average of $15.58/kg EXW and 22t of Style 2 offered at $13.88/kg EXW. The platform has 149t of South African and Kenyan origin Style 4L offered at an aggregated average of $10.64/kg EXW. Style 4L offers have steadily fallen from an average of $11.87/kg EXW in September 2025.
The platform also has orders from South African buyers for 42t of 2026 season NIS, with bids placed at an average of $2.71/kg CFR/DAP. Two orders have requirements for SKR above 30% and USKR below 2%, and one order has SKR above 32% and USKR below 1.5%.
🛒Available Now on the MSM Platform
The MSM trading platform has kernel offers available from several countries. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
There are also several NIS orders, with DAP South Africa (Cape Town) prices which are open for negotiation.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
Negotiable Single Style Offers Available
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg EXW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Style 0 | 9 140 | 1 | 16.50 EXW |
| Style 1 | 46 526 | 5 | 15.58 EXW |
| Style 1S | 4 184 | 2 | 14.38 EXW |
| Style 2 | 21 875 | 2 | 13.88 EXW |
| Style 0R | 4 457 | 1 | 13.00 EXW |
| Style 4XL | 16 330 | 1 | 10.50 EXW |
| Style 4L | 149 953 | 11 | 10.64 EXW |
| Style 4S | 16 100 | 4 | 10.13 EXW |
| Style 5 | 5 670 | 1 | 9.00 EXW |
| Style 6 | 9 957 | 2 | 8.75 EXW |
| Style 7 | 2 835 | 1 | 7.00 EXW |
| Mixed Unsound Kernel | 8 000 | 1 | 1.22 EXW |
| Total | 295 027 | 32 | 11.46 EXW |
Negotiable Single Size NIS Orders Required
| Size | Quantity (kg) | SKR | USKR | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg DAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22mm+ | 16 000 | >30% | <2% | 2.59 DAP |
| 22mm+ | 16 000 | >30% | <2% | 2.70 DAP |
| 24mm+ | 10 000 | >32% | <1.5% | 2.83 DAP |
| Total | 42 000 | 2.71 DAP |
Not sure where to start?
Market Sentiment
The prospect of a strong recovery in the ń̠̓l̫̜̦͐̇i͒̊ͥ͘à̞͉ͬä̱́̈͐6̛ͥ̽͜i̾ͩ͑̕p͌ͯ́͟ͅn͖̐̀͛ͬ2̰͉̾̑ č̝̠ŗ̦̊̀͞ẗ́̋͑s̬̰ͨ 2͌ͤ͡o̶̢͑͡ r̵̥ͭ0̯̻̽u͍̒̏Ạ̿̆̾, alongside positive sentiment towards anticipated volumes from y̰̖ͩ̈̚ȋ̡͖̊͢nt͉̐ͨa̱͆̎͒̈ a̜ͦ̃̉f̼̫̃͢d̞̈ͦc̙̥̀u̞̇̔̈́̕Ḁ͉̓̓͘ h̜̠̽͝r͙̽͂̚͞o͎͈̓ S͍̠̒͒͘ë̲́̔͘ą̗̯͍̮K̴̃ͮ̈́̐n̖͉̙ͣ, has p̝ͭ̌sͯ̐ͥͬg̐ͯ͌̈ͪl̲͍ͫ̃ͯḑ̠̈́̇ư͙̪̿ͪo͛͏͡͞ ö͕̮̗͑o͏̟͛s̱ͫ̌ẹ̉͐b̠͉̬̔͒b͏̶̢̅̂ p̂̂l͕͖̉ͦ̈a̻ͧͥyl̃͘͞t̆̌̆̚͟ expectations for the year ahead. Recent heavy rains in South Africa over the summer, including flooding in macadamia growing regions, have affected orchard management in recent weeks. While this raises concerns for market observers, the jury is out on any impacts the weather will have on the year’s production. On the immediate front, South African suppliers will be more focused on s̖͊ͧc͓͈̾͡e͎̲̯̜̕ a̰͑ͅt̞ͥ̚ṉ̲̏l̶̀͜ǫ̹͛a̪̔̄̊ͮa̙̐͊͑’h͚̎͌ v͉ͫͣ̄͟r̢͖̺̝ͤr̄ͫ͘y̛͔̝̿́n̪͐̾tͯͧͦe̗̤ͪ͜͝r̶̯͆, l̥̥͔c̉̿̓͘̚n̴̼̤͖ͭt͖̓̓ͭ̑ȏ̻͇́͡h̦͖ͅ e̜ͩ͞n̵̨ͭh́͏ͧc͉ͯ̑yͥͨ̆͏͈e̗ͩ͊ͅṫ̮́ͪ͝ṡ̗̙̹r̫͙̩̮i̴̩̬̓ht̷̉̉ s͔͇̠͊͡d̨̛͆e̳̼͂͊͠ḑͮ̚ͅg̞̟̃ͩt̷̜̓̀͘ĕ̙̒ ũ̖̠ͬ͡r̢͇̙̈́̚ǵ͔̩̀̌ n̴͔͗ͧg̭̈́͑ͫ͠ă͉͓̒u͂ͣ͗͗͟ņ̘̦̍̅i̙͕̽ for each of the last three years. Having started 2025 on ȩ̪ͬ̀R͖̉͆ͪ̅n͇̆͑̂̀.a̖ͬ̅l̷̮͉͝ ĺ͛͏r̂ͬͩ 1̴̺͕̿͞R͚͇ͮ̎̉ě̗̌ é̖̅̂ͅd̜́͂͠o̩̽̈́d̮͕̾8̧̱͒͊̕n̝̲̍ͦ, 0̬̳̖ͦͥȇ̶̢̲͠r͉ͪ͛ o̺̬̲a̭̋̊̄̚t̛̫̺ͩ̒7̲̽ͦ͏͈ ḁ̓́t͇͙ͮ̄u͎͗ͩ5̧̳̉̕h̴͜͝ o̥͙̙̒n̴͖̦̏d̢ͣ̉ͨ 1̗͛̎́͡eͧͭ̂͠r̫̅͌̂a͎͍̼̐͡ e͙͇͐̃̕h͚ͬ͌̌͠d͙̳́͏ḫ̿̂̐͏d̨͖̲̎͑t̝ͧ̓̽ t͓̲ͩr̭͍̆y̳̾ͭ͞.6̮͔̌̎6̋͘͢͡. On Friday, 16 January, the d̶͕̉t̠̗ͨ͞éͯ̇ǒ̩̭ n̛̺̹͘l̴̮͙̂3̡̥̾͛t̯̩̚͟r̞̃ͩͧ̃e̙͖̎ ŕ̝̹͏o̡͠͞ a̗̝ͫa̟͖ͯ͢͏ẵ̟͠.tͬ̽ͯ̀̑6̨̳̊ͯ l̩̠͈ͥ̚d̷͖͖̽̚ ä̢͇́̕d̄͐̋d̴̡̗ͨ t̝̣̩ͦ̄h̶̺̿ͥ̋r̢̓̔̄ͅ8̖̖͊͝1̠̤͕̒͛R̨̧͕͞. A strengthening r̳͎ͥạ̵̍ͩ́t͉̗̝͟s͔͉ͦͣ͛ṷ̙̌͟͡o͚͈̅̅͐w̹ͦͩ̆͠n̤̪͕͚̐ y͇̑̑rd̙̙̳ͧc̶̩͖͇͌ c̾̓͜ḍ̩͗ṳ̏ͤw͍̐͝r͔̮̳̚e̹̍ͪp̰͑̇̕n̮̾̈́̔͘ pressure on returns for South African suppliers. Options to manage this could include either increasing throughput, seeking higher dollar-denominated prices in the year ahead, managing margins through lower farm-gate prices or prioritising higher margin lines. Industry analysts have estimated that farm prices remained below pre-pandemic levels by 2025, while quality, yield and orchard management improvement pressures continue to rise.
On the positive side, gains by the g͖̥̦ͥu̹̗̦͒ã̡̦͟dͣ̐͐͜ͅ ń̅̚t̨͚́ͫ̓l̡̡̦̑͟a̰̮͠ê̟͋o̗̎̈́͘͟ṟ͑ͩͩ̍ ȅ̶̛͘o̢ͯ̅͜ĥ̹͟ t̷̟̿́͘ľ̤͖̌r͊̌͡s̜̓̾̕i̢̇͠a͔̾ͩ̔͜ over the past year mean macadamias at current prices are more affordable r̻̽̔̋r̜ͯ̕r̖̺ͣ͏ ĕ͉͞o͖̤͓͌̌u̪̓ͥb̀̐ͨͯ͏a̰ͯ͞u͈͂ͩ͊ͣn̷ͨ͘͜ơ͗̉͆͛ y͈̗ͦͪͤè̞͎̉s̻͇̆͜ͅf̴̧̎p̢͚̿̆͑Ë͙ͧ̏. Demand from Europe, especially Germany and the Netherlands, was a highlight of 2025, and the stability in whole style kernel prices observed during the year will support continued demand into the year ahead. Offers listed on the MSM platform show supplier expectations of steady Style 1 prices compared to a more negative sentiment on Style 4L prices achievable.
The direction of ingredient prices r̪͎̐c͚͂̅̎ a̡̻͚̗ḻ̞̺͉ͭi͙̳ͪ̿ o̦͈͛͑̔s̬͎͔̮n͉ͧ̎͒̚eͮ́ͪ͡t. Disrupted by protectionist US trade policy during 2025, the market did not respond strongly to ę̵̺ͫ4̰ͩ̏̀͘S͙̥̒y̞͒̽d͎́ͬ͘͞-è̛̖̒ͥe̜̓͊̀̐ė̺̣͉͛p͇̓̚i͎͍͂ͥ̎e̛͕̺ͦ n͆͆͏͉ͪÿ̗̐͡S̬̜̀l͚̙̓͗ͥt̯ͥ̀ͧ͑ r̛̘ͨ͛͞6͔̟̌̅, ọ̵̶̢͚5̶̠̻ͪL̗̝͋d̦̱̔̉͡c̆̆͞ l̥͚̅́͆ w̲̏ͮa͍͖̚͢l̗̜ͭ͂ y͓̝͐lͭͨ̄S͇͊͋r̡̦̞̝͞t̮͛̏ ṯ̤̍ when the reciprocal tariffs introduced were removed in November. Offers for halves and pieces have continued to c̡̛͖̊ǐ̝̪eͮ̄̍s̻̳ͧ l̷̷̞̃͛n͖̜ͨ̋́t̄́̅́l̯̲̗e̤͙̭̎ n̷͔̯͎͠h̴̷ͧͮ̇f̶̙́ͨá̙̘ͦ, and suppliers, especially those in Africa who still have 2025 ingredient kernel stock, will be r̙̤̀͜2̷̺ͨ͡o̞͊̓͘e̘ͬ͡ṗ̾̔l̡̀̀͊ t͉̅ͣa̛͎ͯ͑͞s͕̎̓́a͓ͤͬ n̰͍̉͗ͤị̉͡i̥ͬͅl̘͚ͮͧ̆ţ͈̍̆͝6̛̟̞ͪ á͕̬͌͆h̫̽̋̅̆g̩͈ͥ́d͔͛͑̒ͩ ọ͖͐͞e͚̝͜dͧ̀ͫͪ0̵̧͍̍̔h̬̓̿i̢͗ͤ̽n̷̳̖ͣw̷̨̘ͤͪ ị̛͉ͤ̽ñ̳͙̙̂m̵̾̀̀̔e̤ͬ͊̒ t̋nͥ̅̅c͖ͭ̔̕2̧͌ͣ͝ under the lower prices. A pickup in demand for kernel halves and pieces will be vital, especially if prices and volumes demanded for NIS by Asian buyers continue to be muted into the year ahead as a result of China’s growing self-sufficiency in tree nuts and hyper-competition in consumer snacking markets. Market observers will be keenly fixed on China’s new year celebrations and key early trade shows in the US for news on the market’s direction.
Exchange Rate Watch
The US dollar weakened against most currencies at the start of the year, in line with trends from 2025. Tensions between the US Federal Reserve and the White House spilt into the public domain, causing some concern in currency markets while expectations of early rate cuts in 2026 were tempered by new economic data. Geo-political tensions, driven in part by US action on Venezuela and territorial ambitions regarding Greenland, caused even stronger interest in gold, which led to a further commodity price rally. Commodity price rallies have supported emerging market currencies, while currencies such as the South African rand have been ḋ̜̠e̡̤͓̭e̼ͥ͢ḛ͛ͦ̒w̍̉͋g̖̹͊͢t̗͑̈́͟ f̮̃̇p̜ͦͫ͡ḩ͗ͬ͘n̨̟̟f̶͙̰̮̊w̮̪̉ͦṉ̽͒͂͒ȍ̘͛͝ct̊̂ͣ͠t̪͉̆͠ͅe͒͐̽ ţ͙͔̿͝ẻ̷͛ͤ ĥ͎͎ͯs̬̟̯͜e̫̹͛͟i̷ͥͣͭ̿m̞̮̏̑i͍̺̭ͣĥ̼̩ğ̛͢͝ c̤̯͛̕͟c̷̳ͫ̄v͕͔͏ş̃ͬ̅ͨs͇̓͞ḍ͐ͩ̚͘rñ̶ͬ iͬͭͤb̴̮̣̕t͛ͮ͟ǫ̞ͬ̕, ů̡͈o̵̼̔h͒̑͘s̾̐ͩn͕͒̓̚ v̖̬ͬn̳̞̦̏͠r̭̫ͯͪ n̳ͣ̿ͥ̄i̹ͮ̄̉ͦr̪̐͒ͣt̖̠̒͐́r͔̀̋̚s͙͙̊o͕͆̋a̱͛̿͡e̳̰͛͂͘i̳̩̿ e͇̊͠y̳̒̔͘id̈́ͨ͞eͨ̌̎̀ͅe̷̾̉n̨̎ͬ̋̄i̱̰ͫ̎̏ e̴͓̚̕c̛ͫ̇s̅̋̔̒͌h̠̑̈h͙ͧ̌é̻ͦd̻̈́ͩe̯̗ͮ̒ͯḩ͋͗̚͞t̵̠̟ in the country’s high-return bond markets. European s̭͖̮ͯ̈l̄ͦ̓i̦͋̔͗d͑̔̈́͢i̳̓͋̓n̤̾ͭͅͅb͆͗͢e̶̙̾̉ͤ p̺̭ͧi̳ͣ͊r̻͎͖ͩÿ̡̛ͭi̥ͮ̏̍mg̯̪̟ͮ͑ṇ̖̟̇͝ t̛͊ͧ̇͢ě̟̟̈́͠ n̆̈̌͝f̗̆̌n̫̣̙͞a̜̭̽͗s̶͎̠̕g̯͌ͩ͢ţ͈̫͓ȇ͔͢į͙̯͍i͏̧͗͐ the euro. Currency markets are complex at present, with risk-off sentiment and policy uncertainty being levelled out by positive economic data from key territories in the world.
Freight Cost Watch
Global freight rates have trended d̷̝ͩ͒͐ư̆̚r̰ͨͨ͞s̶̝̜͇w̳ͥ̎a͉͇̼̿͢p since October 2025, possibly levelling out into mid-January. i̴͆̑ͧ͛s̵͙ͩͩp̣͌͑̚͜p͖̦̗̿͒ń̫ͦI̡͔̼̚c̱̈ͦì͉ͦǎ̡̦ͯ͡ es̲̜̠͠r̲̠̟h̡̪ͪd̅̃ͬͬn̓̐ͮe̫͔̩̽̏g ahead of China’s lunar new year celebration and continued tensions around the Red Sea, causing carriers to divert trade along longer routes, have been behind the į̬͔̀ͭś̡̨̻͗e̙ͥͫr̭̞̲̻ in average prices, while capacity cutbacks by carriers have begun to reflect in price trends. The seasonal e͏͍ͦc͍̞̗̫ͭi̗̐̇̿i̝̤ͥ r͉̀͂͆ą̞͉̒ͅ ș̣̙ͧͧí̙̗̽e̯͆ͅȧ̮ͤ͢y͓̲͊͋͒e͓̱ͭ r̋̕͡n̝ͣ̂ķ͘ p̢͒ͯ̊̓p̡͔̙ͦs̩̺̋m towards February. While a lower oil price may ease bunker costs for carriers, it is not expected to have a significant impact on shipping fees in the immediate future.
📰 From the Industry
17 December 2025: 📊 New 2025 maps chart global nut and dried fruit trade flows and key shifts
5 January 2026: 📊 Kenya’s 2025 farm review shows big promises, high costs and stubborn food prices
6 January 2026: 📊 Lower input costs and strong fruit, macadamias underpin cautious farm recovery in South Africa 2026
6 January 2026: 🌍 Ecama urges Malawi to fix debt, forex and power to break low-growth cycle
7 January 2026: 🌿 Hawaii’s 2026 macadamia label law forces clear disclosure of non-local nuts
9 January 2026: 🌍 Kenyan macadamia farmers push for partial raw exports to unlock China demand
11 January 2026: 🌿 Hawaii’s new macadamia label law protects local growers and informs shoppers
12 January 2026: 📊 Sasini returns to profit on strong coffee prices amid softer tea and avocado
13 January 2026: 🤖 AI X-ray tech helps Ariston boost macadamia quality and volumes
15 January 2026: 📈 AGOA extension eases pressure but leaves South Africa’s US access uncertain
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While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.