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-8 September 2025-
Dear readers,
S̷o̴u̸t̴h̵ ̴A̵f̶r̶i̸c̵a̶’̵s̵ ̴M̶a̴c̴D̸a̴y̸ approaches, to be held 15-17 September in KwaZulu-Natal. The coming together of the industry is so important for many reasons, including the sharing of information to support improving farming quality and yield. The outlook for the macadamia industry, however, has become increasingly dependent on marketing, as the recent trade shock f̸r̷o̷m̵ ̸U̴̷̶S̵̸̸ ̴t̷a̸r̴i̴f̷f̶ ̸m̴e̶a̵s̵u̶r̸e̸s̶ has highlighted. Expertise, agility and strategy for selling high-quality products must be supported by tools that enable p̷r̶i̵c̸e̶ discovery and manage trader risks through vetting of buyers and sellers, providing escrow facilities, and trade dispute resolution mechanisms. As global complexity and uncertainty grow and the need for intelligent marketing solutions intensifies, be sure to get your business ahead of the game with the tools that the MSM platform makes available to you.
Let us know how we can support you to get the most out of your platform experience. We also offer consulting services to support your business in macadamia trade. Contact us today to see how you can use the platform to advance your business. Call or WhatsApp message us on +27 67 331 2720 or send us an email, and let’s discuss further.
Overview
Deals observed in the market this past week show that shortages will continue to play a major role in p̶r̴i̷c̵e̸ determination in the period ahead, despite tariff shocks and evolution in consumer markets and product development. Observed A̴u̶s̸t̶r̴a̸l̴i̸a̵n̵-origin whole style transactions and S̸o̵u̸t̴h̶ ̴A̷f̶r̶i̶c̷a̴n̸-̵o̸r̴i̴g̸i̸n̶ ̶N̴I̷S̵ ̸t̶r̶a̵n̴s̵a̴c̸t̴i̷o̴n̴s̶ show higher than normal p̵r̶i̶c̷e̸s̶, even as supply from G̸u̸a̴t̵e̴m̸a̸l̴a̴ ̴is forthcoming and China’s volumes promise growth over last year.
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Macadamia Price Trends
The charts below compare average p̷r̶i̸c̶e̸s̴ for different styles and sizes of the most recent five-week period (Weeks 32 to 36) with the five-week period before that (Weeks 27–31). Average prices in observed transactions have risen between the two periods, supported by some strong A̶u̸s̴t̵r̴a̶l̵i̷a̸n̴-origin contracts. H̵i̷g̸h̷-̴p̶r̶i̷c̵e̷d̸ NIS2̵2̷+̶ transactions also supported the rise in average prices between the two periods.
Price Spreads
Given limited market visibility, MSM’s volume-weighted daily average p̵r̴i̵c̶e̷ spread calculations should be read as an estimated trendline indicating direction and size rather than as providing detailed statistics. The spread between observed w̷h̸o̵l̶e̵ ̸s̵t̶y̵l̴e̶ ̷p̶̷̶r̷̵̴i̸̷̴c̸̴̵e̸̸̴s̶̵̷ against halves-and-pieces widened significantly on the A̶u̷s̴t̷r̷a̶l̵i̷a̸n̶-origin transactions, while S̵t̴y̴l̵e̷ ̵4̶L̵ ̸p̴̷̸r̵̸̷i̶̸̶c̸̷̸e̴̶̷s̴̷̵ continued to be flat.
Market Sentiment
G̵u̷a̴t̶e̴m̶a̶l̸a̵ ̸enjoys a year-round harvest of macadamias, with its rich volcanic soils, high rainfalls and natural elevations that support crop production. Most of its crop, however, is h̵a̵r̴v̶e̶s̶t̴e̴d̷ ̴b̵e̶t̸w̵e̸e̸n̶ ̶M̴a̷y̵ ̴a̴n̴d̵ ̴S̶e̵p̷t̷e̵m̷b̴e̵r̵, depending on conditions, and the bulk of it comes to market in kernel form between July and October. After a flurry of plantings between 2̸0̴1̷5̴ and 2̶0̵2̶0̸, there is still much more volume to come from G̸u̵a̵t̴e̴m̷a̴l̷a̸, with only 5̶0̴%̶ of its trees mature enough to produce crop in 2̵0̷2̸3̵. G̵u̴a̸t̴e̴m̵a̴l̷a̵n̸ ̵exports are largely focused on U̷̷̵S̶̵ m̷a̷r̸k̷e̶t̴s̴, but the local industry showed the ability to switch to EU markets during 2̴0̶2̷3̵ and 2̴0̴2̷4̴ when US demand dipped. Those years were also characterised by severe k̶e̵r̴n̴e̶l̶ ̶p̸̵̷r̵̶̵i̷̸̷c̷̵̵e̴̶̷ ̶d̶r̵o̸p̴s̷, which led to the exit of some farmers. The industry has seen recovery this year, on the back of improved p̷̷̸r̸̵̵i̸̴̶c̸̶̴e̶̶̴s̵̸̸. The first s̸i̷x̷ months of this year saw a rise in kernel exports, against the same period last year. Restored US demand and possible frontloading ahead of mid-year tariff implementation have supported the recovery, and US markets have once again become G̷u̸a̷t̶e̷m̴a̵l̸a̴’̸s̸ ̷p̵r̶i̵m̸a̸r̷y̴ ̷d̷e̷s̷t̸i̵n̶a̶t̴i̵o̴n̴.
While G̴u̷a̸t̸e̶m̷a̸l̸a̸’̴s̵ ̴ supply into H2 2025 will increase product availability somewhat, awareness of global shortages dominates sentiment. Recently observed A̶̶̸u̸̸̵s̸̵̶t̶̵̷r̶̸̷a̸̷̶l̴̷̶i̸̴̸a̶̶̸n̵̵̵ ̷transactions continue to settle at h̷i̴g̴h̵e̵r̸-̴t̴h̸a̶n̵-̶n̴o̶r̶m̸a̸l̵ p̴r̵i̶c̸e̸s̷, causing global averages for whole styles t̸o̶ ̸r̷i̶s̶e̴. Similarly, South African NIS2̶2̸+̸ transactions this past week were priced at above $̵3̶.̵5̶0̵ CIF to Asia, the h̸i̶g̷h̷e̵s̵t̴ observed so far this year. There continues to be mixed reports about the quality of C̶h̵i̸n̷a̸’̵s̸ ̵e̴a̷r̷l̷y̸ harvest, but a general consensus that there will be g̶r̶o̵w̴t̷h̵ ̴i̶n̴ ̸v̸o̸l̵u̸m̸e̵s̸ ̶a̸s̴ ̸y̵o̷u̵n̷g̴e̸r̷ ̵t̴r̷e̴e̵s̴ ̸b̴e̴c̷o̵m̷e̸ ̵f̸r̴u̵i̷t̶-̴b̴e̵a̵r̸i̸n̵g̵ this year.
Exchange Rate Watch
Latest US economic data has r̷e̴i̶n̶f̶o̴r̷c̵e̶d̶ ̴e̸x̸p̵e̵c̴t̷a̵t̵i̸o̸n̸s̶ for a September i̷n̸t̸e̷r̶e̵s̷t̵ ̷r̸a̴t̵e̵ ̶c̶u̷t̸, leading to a dollar s̵e̵l̵l̴-̵o̷f̶f̸ ̸i̸n̶ ̵f̸a̸v̵o̷u̸r̸ ̸o̵f̴ ̷h̴i̴g̷h̶e̶r̷-̶y̶i̵e̵l̴d̸i̵n̸g̷ emerging market currencies. Emerging market currencies, including that of China, are also being supported by a r̷a̸l̴l̴y̸ ̷i̴n̴ ̵c̶o̸m̷m̷o̴d̸i̷t̷y̶ ̶p̷r̶i̶c̵e̵s̶. These markets, however, are not without risk, as shown by the r̵e̷c̵o̷r̴d̷ ̴l̷o̷s̵s̶e̴s̷ ̴i̵n̵ ̷v̸a̴l̶u̸e̵ ̸I̷n̵d̸i̶a̸’̷s̸ ̸r̶u̵p̵e̴e̴ experienced against the dollar following capital outflows linked to new US tariff measures. The euro i̵s̴ ̵g̸a̷i̵n̴i̶n̸g̸ ̶o̴n̸ ̷t̷h̵e̴ dollar, but momentum here depends on the Eurozone’s continued recovery and upcoming monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank.
Freight Cost Watch
Global container rates rebounded as September started, through supply r̷e̷s̷t̴r̵i̷c̴t̶i̵o̶n̶s̵ ̷a̵n̵d̵ ̶g̷e̴n̷e̷r̶a̵l̴ ̸r̶a̷t̴e̶ ̵i̶n̸c̸r̷e̸a̴s̴e̶s̵ as carriers struggle to cope with post-frontloading slowdowns across east-west lanes. O̶v̵e̴r̸c̵a̷p̶a̸c̵i̴t̸y̸ ̷during a year of intense uncertainty and container demand volatility has put pressure on carrier margins.
📰 From the Industry
5 Sep: 🇨🇳 S̶A̴ ̴m̸a̶c̸a̶d̸a̵m̶i̴a̶s̶ ̸target China as 5̵4̴%̷ ̵o̵f̵ ̶2̴0̸2̶4̸ ̶e̷x̵p̴o̷r̸t̷s̵ ̷head there
4 Sep: 📈 SA fruit & nut exports up 1̷3̸.̶3̸%̴ ̶i̴n̸ ̵H̸1̸ ̷2̶0̶2̵5̷,̷ ̸l̷e̶d̸ ̴b̵y̶ ̷E̵U̵ ̷d̶e̴m̵a̸n̵d̵
3 Sep: 🥜 Global macadamia output to top 300,000 tons in 2025; China leads consumption
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Negotiable Single Style Offers Available
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg EXW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Style 1 | 88 452 | 4 | 15.20 EXW |
| Style 1S | 51 030 | 3 | 14.45 EXW |
| Style 2 | 17 010 | 1 | 13.20 EXW |
| Style 4L | 405 745 | 26 | 11.51 EXW |
| Style 4S | 35 721 | 4 | 11.36 EXW |
| Style 5 | 27 670 | 2 | 8.85 EXW |
| Style 6 | 36 742 | 3 | 7.47 EXW |
| Style 7 | 1 361 | 1 | 7.20 EXW |
| Total | 663 730 | 44 | 11.58 EXW |
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Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.