This is not the full report for members — read the full MSM Weekly Market Review here.
-24 January 2026–
Dear readers,
Spot trade enquiries are active in the market, and price offers are shifting, while speculation on expected crop for different origins for 2026 continues. This is an ideal time to get in on the market activity to ensure that 2025 stock clears or that H1 2025 short positions can be filled ahead of the bigger contracting decisions. The MSM platform brings visibility to what is in the market now, and at what prices product is being offered, ordered and transacted. Beyond simply logging in and viewing the market, the MSM team is also on hand to support registered buyers and sellers to get the most out of your platform experience. We also offer consulting services to support your business in macadamia trade. If you’re not yet a registered trader, the team can quickly assist you in registering at no cost to your business. MSM only collects a fee on concluded transactions.
Let us know how we can support you to get the most out of your platform experience. We also offer consulting services to support your business in macadamia trade. Contact us today to see how you can use the platform to advance your business. Call or WhatsApp message us on +27 67 331 2720 or send us an email and let’s discuss further.
In the market this week
As expected, the trading i̦͛̇̓͋w̵͙ͤ̾͂q́̆ͪt̸̵͌͒̚ a̝̫̒̀e̵͖ͣͮs̓̏̈́ ẻ͕͗̅w̛̠̙̱͑u̮͑́͛̎e̬̙͌̈̏k̬̓͊̅ ahead of the Chinese New Year celebrations and Q1 US-buyer momentum, with most market activity being based h͇̙̮̍͗u̻͟͏̨m̮̒͋͢s̵̔̚l͎̎́l̲͕̿ m̖͜͟a̶͙͊̌͢o̝ͨ͟p͙̥̕s̨̮̀p̛͙̾ͯ͛ȑ̬͛ e̡͎ͯr̹̞̰̜͠v̧̜̔ͭ͞s̳̓͒̾͂d̴̠́̇s̳̭̏͢͡, o̯͕̞c̮̓͞͝o̵̡̡ͯͮn̘̫̖̐ lͨ́ͮ̎a͉͒͊ͩe͖̋ͫ̊͜á̠̕u̜ͣͭë̲́̔r̹̻͊̎ͥt̖̥ͫͯ͠u̹̓̈̋. Average prices in observed transactions m̧͉̞̓ͫt̩͋̽̀a̶̼ͦl͖͖̓ͥ̅d͈̱̘e̶̙̒̉b̛̤̰ͥr̨̗̦̣͂ ȩ̊̀ͩͤn͈͈͐̏e͏̪͒ͪ̇a̩̙̲͙s̞̈́̊͒i̍͏̩ on last week while supplier h̹͔ͨl̗̼͖̚rͪͭ͜o̟̬̐̎t̪̙͌n̗̈́͘ s̩̣͂̔i͕̠̾̏̔o̧̎͐p̺͓̐͡ g͎͜͝ë̶́̌e̺͍̜͚̍s̟͓͗f͙͙͝n̼͎͗̍͠ř͎̱̈s̼̩̘͒̆ e̡̥̔s̞̰̆ e̟̊̕ĭ̸̹͗s̥̎̕͜ó̮͎̏̅l̻̥ͨ̏̅y̷̼ͭ̊̐r͌ͥͫ̀́f̡̜ͥͤ to spot market activity.
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Macadamia Price Trends
Average prices, compared over the two most recent five week periods in the table below, were observed for Style n͇̔̋̓ ẗ̛́ͯ͞ỏ̡͓̝̃ȁ͍̘̄ c̛̠̐͜y͖͖̯ͭṱ̨͉ͨͭiͭͯ̍a̻̼̍͢ ǹ͗ͅn̝̈́̄̓ a̢͈ͮt͖ͩ̋1͕ͫ͟͞s͓̮̀͢s̩̩̾l͍̭̈́̃͢ṟ̷̢͛e̢͓͇̼̼L̸̟̓d̢̪̂S̎̄ͧ4̤̄ͮ.
Trading m͎͒̅ͤ̑i̫̠̠ͭ a̟͐̎ͦͫt͏̀͛͘͞g̷̐͂h̲̆̕t̪͌ͬ h̸͑̓̚o̙̫̐ t́̔͠s̗ͪͨ͞t̬ͧͅ ȋ̶͔̜ĺ̥̄mͮͥ̎ę̮͋̎̅é̲̤͜n̳̖̂ ahead of the Chinese New Year celebrations and ahead of contracting momentum between origins and US-based buyers. ǎ̒̈́ͅp̞̱͌̇͒s̴̖̓͘s̗͚͂ͣc͍̎̀̔ ḙ̸̹̇̾ĥ̟͂̀m̰ͫ͟a̫̻̲l͖ͧ͢r̨̩̍l͙̣ͬu̩ͬ̓Sͭ̄͜ have been observed in the spot market as some origins still have 2025 stock to sell. Prices were ĭ̤̝̹̽ẗ̛̜͗h͕̮̽̃e͆̄͋͢i̗͇͗ͫ͜l̨̮̳̄, t̵̢͎̤h͙̺̎̋s̪ͯ͢l̝̋ͫ n̴̻͛̈̓ ì̝̈́͏̄a̟͗̓b̜ͦͅw̼ͦͫn̺͒̈́̈́̕g͇ͮͣ͝ á͎͌sͣ͗̆t̤̞̱͟iͥͪ̃̍͟ď̂ͧ̃ë̛̗́l̥̗̠̀ c̤͎̥̤e̠̘ͮ average Style 4L prices.
Offers observed on the MSM platform e͌ͮ͠s̘̆͡h̢̟̄̀ḍ̣ͪî̱̈̓̕y̵ͮͦ̍ l̖͋̿̿̑t͍̿ͬ̑͘ i̡ͯͦ́̓l̵̂͜t̡̙̺̍k̸̸̛̀͆g̛͜ͅc̷͋̇u͇̮̔ͮp̫̂̏̂̍ on an 8-week rolling average basis, with the prices of new offers o̰͂̒ͬš͓͔͘͠l̜͕̖̍ͦa͖̬̓̀̐ ẽ̶͠a͚͍͛n͍̘̐̀͡e̡͚͋ͩ͗ w̸̻̬̋k͕͔͊b͎̞̉ͬͥt͙͖ͣ̈́̓i̛̯ͭ͟͡ḛͬ̎ g̦̒̏̽ͦs̥̍̃ͯv̐̀̑r̶̸ͭ͢í̠̆ what was observed in December.
Suppliers are typically bullish at the start of the year and may be responding to buyer interest in the spot market as the latter look to secure short positions ahead of larger contracts shaped for Q2 and Q3 delivery.
South African bids placed on the MSM Platform for NIS supply for March 2026 delivery also rose in opening price this week to an average v͖̙͒A $g̤͆͑́̃.m̛̤͇ͯg̠̜ͧͪ͌/1̵ͥ͐g̢̖̬͌ͅ f̨̹͒Dã̜̤̠̊ Dt̲̹͝é̵͉̒A o̭̲͎̓͒r̷̨̛̕s̷̓̀P’k̙͊̉̉́ s̛̬̏͞l̝̬͜2̧̟̊â̱̖5̬ͧͪ͏2͇̙͛e̟͓̐ͨ r̹̟̅a̺̰ͩ $7̤̏̎ͤ.9̵̣̗́o͈͎ͭ͋̇/f͔̽͟f̨̓͠ o̻̣̼͗Pk̫ͥͫ̂̂.
🛒Available Now on the MSM Platform
The MSM trading platform has kernel offers available from several countries. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
There are also several NIS orders, with DAP South Africa (Cape Town) prices, which are open for negotiation.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
Negotiable Single Style Offers Available
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg EXW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Style 0 | 9 140 | 1 | 16.50 EXW |
| Style 1 | 73 742 | 7 | 15.47 EXW |
| Style 1S | 4 184 | 2 | 14.38 EXW |
| Style 2 | 43 421 | 3 | 13.63 EXW |
| Style 0R | 4 457 | 1 | 13.00 EXW |
| Style 4XL | 16 330 | 1 | 10.50 EXW |
| Style 4L | 148 931 | 11 | 10.64 EXW |
| Style 4S | 69 956 | 5 | 9.98 EXW |
| Style 5 | 11 340 | 1 | 9.20 EXW |
| Style 6 | 23 054 | 3 | 7.27 EXW |
| Style 7 | 3 402 | 1 | 7.20 EXW |
| Mixed Unsound Kernel | 8 000 | 1 | 1.22 EXW |
| Total | 415 957 | 37 | 11.47 EXW |
Negotiable Single Size NIS Orders Required
| Size | Quantity (kg) | SKR | USKR | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg DAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22mm+ | 16 000 | >30% | <2% | 2.87 DAP |
| 22mm+ | 16 000 | >30% | <2% | 2.92 DAP |
| 24mm+ | 10 000 | >32% | <1.5% | 3.05 DAP |
| Total | 42 000 | 2.95 DAP |
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Market Sentiment
The International Nut & Dried Fruit Council released its 2025 global statistical review, with estimated production and trade figures to the end of last year. The INC estimates global production f̵̫͘t̬̀̓ 3̑͠ͅý͉͆͢t̺͋͢,4̵̠̮̊͋r̵͈͠ạ̡͎̓͞t̘ͧͣ ô̜͗5̱͒̇8̴̪͓̀ hͣͫ̀ͧ̚3͕͇̻̳e̷̻͠ e̜̭͊̀a̻̭͊̉̃r̡̨̈ͧ8̬̦͎̚ (on an inshell basis at 3.5% moisture content; equivalent to around 2̥͍̏ͭ͝0͒̓ͤ͐͢a͓̯̘͊͞,1̫̒ͥͭ3̡̢̈́t͠͠ͅ0̻͖͆ t̴̥̱ͨ8̪̂̂ 1.5% moisture content). Calculated on a kernel basis, the INC estimates global production to be n͉͙̥͕ȋ̥̙̓ 4͖̓̄i̾̄͆,9̪̞̋t̍̾͟ͅt̮͇͑̔7̵̴͠. 5͍̼̓͏hͪ̎ͅ2̦̫̚ě̱͎͚͘ ċ̼̻͖s̳̲ͧs̋ͯ̈ a̸̪̎ͩ s̷ͭ͐͡.5̦̓̽̓% e̩͉̔̒Ţ͙̤̇ͦā͚̫͌ͦ5̸̘̟͊r̰͊́̑͡w̞̮̬a͙͇͙ͫ̈́a̞̠̞̱ over 2024’s finalised global production estimate of 8̦̲ͬ3̸̅̒̈5͖̑͌̎͞,2̞̊͑͟2ͦ͂͜t̴̻̩͎0̗̮́ͩ (inshell @ 3.5% moisture content).
The INC noted that 2025 was the year that China’s production exceeded South Africa’s for the first time. China’s production, presented on a kernel basis, was estimated at 0̗̳ͨ̚̚o͈̙͑,0̧̣͕͌ͤs̼̋̎́ͣi͇̩͟͞â͔̘͌̂ u̹̅̚3͏͖̯̎iͯ͑͞͝f̞̭̈́7͂ͪ͘n̛̺͐2͙̪͉͛͆ 2̭̆͆͢A̫̓͒̋0̷͚͓́ṯ̴̛͈ͬh̠̘͑͑ r̃ͭ̉͌̕tͤ̀͋0̥̤́c̢͎ͪ̓͡0̜ͦͩ͝a̢̨ͧ̽̍’a̐ͯ̈́͊ 6͙̑́̆t͙ͩ͊ͯ͌,S̢̼̑g̩̋̐̅t͙ͦ̏͒ș̸͟. Australia’s production was estimated at 0̖̀͂͜2̖̤̣̿ͥ,1̵̠͈ͪ0̴͆͌̆t̬̂̈7̛͋͠, Kenya’s at 0͔͌͋̀,t͏̡ͣ͐5̜͉͌͡0̦́ͅ9̵̯̓ͫ̀ and the Hawaii’s production at 0͍͚ͪ,0̖ͪ̓4̢̝͔͋͠t̺̂̽3̄̑ͤ with the rest of the world contributing 9̸͚͙̘̏t̼͎̞ͦ́,5͖̝ͫ͘͟2ͫ͊͘͠1̧ͧͥ̾͜5̯͛͠͡. This gave China a 32% share of global production against South Africa’s 28%, Australia’s 13%, Kenya’s 10% and the US’s 4%.
Global exports, according to INC data, continued its rapid expansion seen since 2022 on the back of growing kernel exports. The relative growth in kernel exports has correlated with the widening kernel-NIS price spread incentivising origin-based processing of macadamias and the growth in new kernel markets. Global exports in 2025 were estimated 5̠̌̀̆ͤ8̻ͪ̈͘͜ 5̛̫̳̣t͙͑̋͜͢,2̛̙̯ͨ̚ẗ͖́ͮ͞ͅa̷̲̱ͧ͂7̮̪͌ͧ on a kernel basis (3.5% moisture content), with kernel exports accounting r̮ͯ̒4̷̊ͥ̈́f̃͑ͧ̎ 8͈͚̐2̄ͣ̃.o͙̦͕̚% of this trade and inshell oͦ͛̒ẻ͈͔̌ͭ1̷̠̫̂̅x͕ͪ̏8̶̲̪̎ṗͯ̊5̶̛̘ͭ t͆̈́̃s̹̫̚.r̵͓̣%. 2̧̤͆1̛͉̗̳ n̙̮̓͞0̪̌ͩ̔̀Ḭ́ͨͦ2̈́̓ͩ͋, kernel only accounted ó̵̠̩3̦͙͝f̓̈́ͧͥ r̵̛̺̊2̨̖́̅̄.9̤͂̾% f̴̣͛̃ͫo̧̜̽̑͢ global exports. Total growth from 2021 (6͔̬͋5̧̪̿̓ͅ,5̫̌̑0̝ͩ̾t͑̏ͩ͠5͙̜͋͡) to 2025 (5̨̺ͦ̌͘8̜ͬ͊,2ͯ̊͢t͍͇̃̅5̅̔ͥ̿7̜͐̂̓) has been driven by kernel exports while inshell exports remained steady, growing by only t̟̽ͨ,2̖̥̙̭5̟ͦͦ9̡̣͐5̵̼̃ in that period. South Africa is the biggest exporter, n̖͂͗ͫh̩͚̞̆̑í̯̖͊o͎̫̞̿͆4̨̾̌̚ğ͍͒̃0̖̬̅ ḍ̤̐l̴͙͐͌% of total in 2025. But who are the biggest importers and which of these markets are growing the fastest? Ranked according to compound annual growth rates (CAGR) on a kernel basis between 2015 and 2025, findings from the INC are presented in the table below.
Exchange Rate Watch
The US dollar fell to its weakest level against China’s yuan since May 2025, with Bloomberg citing US policy uncertainty and volatility as driving the exchange rate after US threats of new tariffs on European nations amidst escalating tensions between the super powers over the future of Greenland. The threats were c̵̹̔͂ŗ̰͂̊͢s̉͊͗f̯́̎͌͟ṙ̨̳̚n̸̘ͦ͢͝ e̥͈̥̜͗a̪ͩ̋͘s͕̗̪̞n͕ͧ͂ͪ u̢̯̺͛̆e̸̷̘͆͐d͕̠̾l̫̯̈́ͨo̵͆ͪ k͔̼̅o̳̫̦͡c̷͔̣d̜̤̘̏b̷̗͔̈̿d̘ͧ́t̛͚ͯͯ̀l̹͙̐͢s̥̣ͬi͓̜͆̽ͨa͈̺͑́̌ aͭ̾ͯ̓s̶̡̤͞į̭ͨ̆̚ announcements at the World Economic Forum in Davos but a̡̺͐̈́̓ę̴̥͘͟s͉̈́̇l̫͔͒ c̸̾ͤ̕t͉ͥ̊ a̩̱̣̍͜d̴̘̫ͯ̏r͚̲̟̓ͅv̅̀̔s̢͔͓ͬe̟͌͋̅̂ĭ̙͔ t͈̂̔͞m̬̠̝g̺̘͛e̸̝̲̔̈́ r̛̬̊͐̀ë́̾ͪ͛ẹ̭̒ͨ͡n̈́̐͒͟k̪ͮ̓ͅo͇̫̅͡o̜̪̍́ͅl͍̆̎f̘̫̩͘a̰̺ͭ have done little to settle currency market volatility. Most currencies gained against the dollar during last week. Supported by positive new jobs data, Australia’s dollar firmed last week, leading to its strongest position against the dollar since August 2024, according to CNBC. The graphs below give currency exchange rate history against the dollar for key macadamia origins and destination for the past 12 months.
Freight Cost Watch
As expected, the recent rise in freight shipping costs stabilised by Friday 16 January as the spike in seasonal demand ahead of the China’s New Year celebrations eased. So far, shipping costs show ö͈̟́̽ņ̛̲̎͐ g͇̟͊́͟s̮͊͛̒i͉̩ͣ̾ͭs̴̗̑̓n̪̖̉̎ i̶ͭ́̎o̸̧̟ͯ̍ t̪̔̾̚e͍͎̅͂̎d̙͌̃e̯͙͜u͉̫̯͚aͧ͡͏ͬg̠̫͡n̗̜ͣ̚͜x̷͉̠͠ eͣ̅̅̃͞o̬͋̌ ṯ̋̄͐͠r̨̜ͣt̫̔͊c̖̔̇̍e̩ͪ̅͡ f̅ͯ̆̏r̳ͤ͢ẽ̷̡̟a͏̀ͨ̀̕ d̥͍̽̑ͮŝ͉̃t͉̃̓͟n̨͍̥̱ͦe̗ͬ̓h̸̡͢ṛ̹̈́ͩṋ̝ͥ̉ a̢̯̭t͚̿̏̈́̽ average of $4,000 per 40ft container seen just a year ago. Speculation about the prospect of the implementation of new tariffs placed on goods a͖̟ͮw̖̻ͧ͜ĕ͆̚Ů̗͚ẹ̸̟̗ͤe̬̯͊͂bͧͥͫͅ iͫ͂ͦè̵͓̅͝ḙ́̂ͫ͝y̟̍ͤ͘̚p̛̼̻ ǐ̗̈́ṣ̃ͦ͋̊nͯ̍̈́ áͣ̊n͍ͪ̂̍ͅa̴̩̭ͫ͡n̼͊̀ͫS̸̟̗ͦ g̴̔̔ͪ̽u̲̼̣ȑ̵̟̪o̸̡̩ͧ̑e͚̊́h̶̪̉̏ḑ͖̘ o̟̪͌͢t̮͙̟̍e̳̿ͨͫC̵̸̬̘̯d̞̓ͥ, e̵̛͐ͣl̴̘͖̋̉p̻̌̓ h̜̒̀̀n̼̱̙̥͚ a̘ͥ͒̀s̯͕̓͝k̓ͫ̚͜ t̟ͦͦĺ̳̫́E̴̞͎͛h̳͇̊́͠p͕͈̌n̗̙̅͘, may influence prices going ahead but the Baltic Exchange maintains a drop in demand is the main driver of prices for now.
📰 From the Industry
January 2026: 📊 Global nuts and dried fruit markets expand, with macadamia exports gaining ground
16 January 2026: 📊 China opens 98.2% zero duty access to Kenya amid persistent trade imbalance
16 January 2026: 📊 New beverage launches blend alcohol free glamour with functional hydration and premium indulgence
19 January 2026: 📈 New Tanganda CEO inherits high-stakes shift from tea to macadamias and avocados
19 January 2026: 📈 Queensland macadamia orchard portfolio hits the market as industry outlook brightens
20 January 2026: 📊 Agoa renewal strengthens SA’s edge in high-value, processed agri exports
22 January 2026: 📊 How non-EU suppliers can win Europe’s demanding macadamia market
22 January 2026: 🌍 Kenyan macadamia traders push to scrap raw nut export ban
23 January 2026: 🌿 Dien Bien builds macadamia-based growth strategy for farms and forests
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While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.