Foreword
Dear readers,
I enjoyed the opportunity to attend the recent SIAL international food exhibition in Paris. While there, it was very interesting to hear how buyers and industry players perceived macadamia supply. Despite seeing the immense nutritional benefits and other appealing attributes of macadamias, many felt that kernel supply was still too unpredictable and unreliable and that macadamias, although the kernel price dipped dramatically, had the potential to become too expensive soon — rendering it suitable for niche, premium markets only. There were concerns that global kernel prices could return to pre-2021 levels, compounding the perspective that macadamias are a difficult bet especially when supply is insecure. This year has been characterised by a sharp return to shortages when suppliers sat with excess stock not too long ago. A regular view shared during our engagements was that the current structure of supply leaves little room for the development of new markets.
Buyers were aware of kernel shortages and the surge in supply of unprocessed nuts to China, but not too many were aware of the large plantings around the world that will come to fruit in the next few years. Suppliers therefore face the age-old problem: if factories use growing production towards kernel processing, how will we generate increased demand for kernel at short notice, especially given entrenched buyer perceptions about supply?
There was great interest in the role the MSM platform can play in answering this question.
The platform serves a crucial role in not only preparing the market in advance for more produce, but also in indicating and availing the numbers/volumes at stake as tangible futures that can be locked into purchase contracts to further sales. The platform generates market information and market transparency which immediately translates into visible market opportunity. Such decision-making supports were previously not available to prospective buyers. The intent of MSM is bringing visibility to deals, prices and stock through its market reports and trade requirements, thus availing opportunities that await registered buyers and suppliers.
We were encouraged from our engagements at SIAL to see that the MSM platform offers a real opportunity to overcome trading difficulties that characterise macadamia trade. Sign up today, browse the stock we have loaded on the platform, place orders to meet your market requirements going forward, and create a more secure future for extended macadamia trade!
Macadamia Price Trends
The two graphs below compare average prices in reported trades for the most recent five-week period (Weeks 39-43) with the five-week period that preceded it (Weeks 34-38).
On the whole, average kernel prices in observed transactions showed a stronger upward tick than in the previous report. Fewer transactions were observed in second five-week period as supply declines and buyers take longer to settle trades at the prices offered.
Not untypically for this time of the year, NIS transactions are few and far between. The second half of the year is mostly focused on kernel transactions. Demand for NIS is expected to grow towards the Chinese New Year in early 2025 but supply is not yet certain, especially with Kenya’s decision to ban harvesting until March. Forecasting for the 2025 crop will become more accurate once Southern Hemisphere orchards reach the nut drop phase in November.
Available on the MSM Trading Platform
Explore the latest stock available on the MSM Trading Platform, as summarized in the table below. These offerings are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at your desired price. We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
| Single Style Offers from Kenya Available on the MSM Trading Platform | ||
| Style | Containers | Quantity (kg) |
| Style 1L | 2 | 34020 |
| Style 1S | 2 | 34020 |
| Style 4L | 3 | 48648 |
| Style 4S | 2 | 34020 |
| Mixed Style Offers from Kenya Available on the MSM Trading Platform | ||
| Style | Containers | Quantity (kg) |
| 16% Style 1S, 84% Style 4L | 1 | 17010 |
| 8% Style 0, 48% Style 1L, 44% Style 1S | 1 | 17010 |
| 12% Style 4L, 80% Style 4S, 8% Style 5 | 1 | 17010 |
| 1% Style 0, 31% Style 1L, 20% Style 1S, 12% Style 4L, 35% Style 4S, 1% Style 5 | 1 | 17010 |
Sign up on the MSM Platform today to access exclusive offers and make the most of a dynamic, transparent trading experience tailored to the needs of the macadamia industry.
Market Sentiment
Engagements at the recent SIAL international food exhibition in Paris highlighted vulnerabilities in the current trajectory of the macadamia industry. There is presently little kernel supply available as a result of lower-than-expected production in key regions together with a strong supplier focus this year on the supply of unprocessed macadamias to China. There was a sense from buyers attending SIAL that rising kernel prices would not attract significant new supply in the short term, further cementing the macadamia’s reputation as an expensive, niche market nut. In addition, established buyers will protect supply relationships meaning there is little opportunity for market development and new market opportunities. The situation is reinforcing a bearish approach by buyers towards the available kernel supply, slowing the pace of trades at current prices while others have shifted focus to planning for next year.
While global production is forecast to expand substantially as large plantings become fruit-bearing over the next few seasons, handlers will be reticent to commit rising volumes of macadamias to processing without being sure of market uptake: will kernel demand be sufficient if there is a sudden increase in supply? Lack of information for both buyers and sellers still plagues confidence in international macadamia trade, which only reinforces the current trajectory.
Industry players engaged with at SIAL welcomed the role that an online trading platform could play in providing information to remedy this situation. Elements of the platform that drew attention included the depot for aggregation and standardisation of supply; the transparency generated through the distribution of information to platform traders; and, the superior brokering experience a data-driven platform could provide over traditional brokering. Recognition was also given for the key role the platform could play in preparing the market for supply increases, and to help identify available volumes that could be secured via the platform to boost sales.
In The News…
25 October 2024: [Kenya] Government Slaps Macadamia Farmers With Ban, Issues This Directive.
24 October 2024: Bright Prospects for Macadamia Nuts in China.
23 October 2024: Mundus Agri global macadamia market update.
21 October 2024: [Kenya] Macadamia growers want more control on exports.
18 October 2024: Bundaberg macadamia orchard sales attract international interest.
17 October 2024: [Video] Chaine des Rôtisseurs Young Chefs Competition proudly sponsored by SAMAC.
What does MSM Offer You?
MSM not only provides market information through these updates, we offer solutions. We’re continuously growing and improving the tools available for every stakeholder in the industry to better position themselves in this ever-changing landscape. Click the link below to read more.
Stratamarkets
In the past we’ve shared Stratamarkets Weekly Reports in this report to increase market transparency and encourage industry players to participate in the sharing of market information. Since the beginning of July 2024 this information is only available behind a Stratamarkets paywall.
Stratamarkets offer price reports for macadamias and other nuts. Please visit their website, and we encourage you to subscribe as a member. Stratamarkets offer a variety of subscription plans and incentives for access to valuable market information.
Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.