Foreword
Dear readers,
2025 is punctuated by uncertainty, and the global macadamia industry is not immune to this reality especially considering its volatile track record. Ultimately, price risks are intensified. In contrast to last year, the market is slower to settle early commitments, unsure which way the market will go. A mechanism which gives visibility to price signals, allows for transparent price negotiation through listed offers and orders, and which independently verifies the quality of product on the market, can go a long way to engage particularly new markets with less risk, and stimulate growth of existing trade by mitigating uncertainty. The MSM Platform is such an instrument, providing unique advantages to macadamia buyers and sellers. Its trading services are wrapped in market intelligence updates to keep buyers and sellers informed.
MSM is an innovative business solution to support the trade of macadamias. Our goal is to stimulate demand for macadamias through improved price discovery, enabling visibility of demand and supply, and providing much-needed assurance in international transactions. To better support participating buyers and sellers with underlying market intelligence, we’re focusing our efforts more directly on their needs and are going to intensify research to deliver more comprehensive data, statistics and trend analysis. To this end, MSM will be restricting the free circulation of these market reports to buyers and sellers who are registered to trade on the platform from April 2025. What does this mean for existing subscribers to our market reviews?
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We look forward to strengthening our support of your business in its trade of macadamias this year. Start the verification process on the platform today as a buyer or seller and retain free access to our market reports. The macadamia industry is poised for growth—trade through the platform to ensure that your business maximises its potential through transparent, multi-channel participation.
Macadamia Price Trends
Kernel price increases continued to taper off in the recent period but overall levels in observed transactions are holding. There is substantial demand for kernel products and more recent price levels suggest that the market will find its liquidity at eased levels this year. In sharp contrast to last year, there is little NIS trading being observed at the moment. Buyers in China appear to view market conditions as being in their favour while suppliers feel they have options beyond raw exports. The waiting game may keep a lid on NIS prices in the near future.
Market Sentiment
At this early stage in the year, it appears that kernel products are holding their price levels while there are continued questions over the direction of the NIS market. There were further confirmations this past week that Chinese wholesalers hold some inventory. The presence of existing stock together with the prospect of higher domestic production in China in the fourth quarter of this year has buyers firm in their bids and responses to offers. However, China’s rapidly evolving consumer market suggests that the slow start to the year signals a more discerning approach by buyers rather than a drop in demand. A European-based trader recently highlighted the growing demand for smaller, coated whole-kernel products in China. Under domestic processing, this shoud mean increased demand for smaller NIS sizes of high quality that can produce volumes of S1 style. Suppliers may not feel hard-pressed by greater supply demands as the kernel market offers good returns at the moment, especially for whole styles.
A more even marketing split between NIS and kernel will increase the latter’s supply and could exert downward pressure on prices over time.
At the very least, it may mean that kernel prices retain their levels and don’t show the increases they did in 2024. This may be tough news for farmers. Farmers’ Weekly reports that presentations at the recent Ambermac event in South Africa showed that growers still face viability threats despite last year’s price recovery. A solution will lie in farmers increasing volumes, something to be expected as the country’s relatively young crop starts to mature. Given the long shelf life of macadamias, it will be important that increased supply is met with efforts to stimulate consumer demand for macadamias otherwise rebuilt buyer inventories may become an unexpected form of competition for suppliers in the days ahead. Both European and Chinese authorities are focused on stimulating economic growth in 2025 with the former cutting interest rates this past week and the latter committing to achieving 5% growth this year and raising its fiscal deficit to allow for more spending. China is already showing improved consumer confidence despite overall negative sentiment. Reinvigorated consumer markets will assist with demand for macadamias.
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
The MSM trading platform has South African and Kenyan kernel offers available. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
Prices Open for Negotiation
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 131544 | 8 | 15.31 |
| Style 1S | 51030 | 3 | 13.75 |
| Style 4L | 68040 | 4 | 11.50 |
| Style 4S | 145152 | 9 | 10.53 |
| Style 5 | 39599.28 | 3 | 9.18 |
| Style 6 | 14560.56 | 2 | 7.20 |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10.1% Style 0, 50.6% Style 4S, 10.1% Style 5, 10.1% Style 6, 10.1% Style 7, 9.2% Style 8 | 16839.90 | 9.10 |
| 2.9% Style 0, 97.1% Style 1S | 3485.58 | 13.05 |
| 39% Style 1, 61% Style 1S | 3980.34 | 14.20 |
| 51.5% Style 0, 48.5% Style 1S | 5375.16 | 15.03 |
| 7.1% Style 1S, 92.9% Style 4S | 5465.88 | 10.64 |
| 76.8% Style 5, 23.2% Style 6 | 9514.26 | 8.66 |
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In The News…
8 March 2025: Kenyan macadamia processors reject claims of government policy causing price drop.
7 March 2025: [South Africa] Healthy returns on macadamias still two years away.
6 March 2025: Ariston Holdings Feels Pinch of RBZ U.S.$ Retention Thresholds.
5 March 2025: Macadamias: start of harvest in Kenya.
March 2025: Global Nuts Market & Crop Update
26 February 2025: Billionaire family’s company gets green light to buy nut butter brand.
What does MSM Offer You?
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Stratamarkets
In the past we’ve shared Stratamarkets Weekly Reports in this report to increase market transparency and encourage industry players to participate in the sharing of market information. Since the beginning of July 2024 this information is only available behind a Stratamarkets paywall.
Stratamarkets offer price reports for macadamias and other nuts. Please visit their website, and we encourage you to subscribe as a member. Stratamarkets offer a variety of subscription plans and incentives for access to valuable market information.
Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.