Foreword
Dear readers,
Informed by our belief in the importance of market transparency, it is our steadfast commitment to keep you informed and as up to date as possible on developments and price movements in the macadamia industry. However, we also want to bring you meaningful updates with substance. This time of the year is traditionally a quieter period as we wait out news of northern hemisphere production, especially that of China. As a result, we will be reducing the frequency our weekly market reports until the news cycle heats up again. We will still be continuing with our monthly reports that contain a broader perspective and trade data on key import markets.
Our August market monthly review will be out next week. Look out for the next edition of this market report in the week of 16 September.
We trust you enjoy the update below.
Macadamia Price Trends
The two graphs below compare average prices in reported trades for the most recent five-week period (Weeks 30-34) with the five-week period that preceded it (Weeks 25-29). Average Style 1L prices in reported trades for the most recent five-week period broke through US$15.00/kg CIF. Average prices for ingredient styles also continue to show price increases with Style 4L rising above US$10.00/kg CIF. Average NIS prices in reported trades remained stable.
Market sentiment
Focus this week has been on NIS supply, stimulated by reports from various sources that China’s production this year may not be as big as expected and may be of lower quality than anticipated. It is still early days for China’s harvest but confirmation of a lower-volume, lower-quality harvest will bring changes to market sentiment. Further news from various sources that sections of NIS directly traded from Kenyan producers to China were sub-quality, together with news of the apparent refusal of the Chinese authorities to allow for the import of NIS from Guatemala, will cement the perspective that China remains strongly dependent on imports for the season ahead to meet its growing domestic consumption of macadamias.
Price drops in 2022 and 2023 stimulated demand and fostered product development in China with new Gen-Z consumers taking up purchases and shifting consumption beyond new years’ celebration in-shell snacking. While NIS wholesale prices have recovered in 2024, they are considered to have stabilised at a level beneficial to both buyer and sellers, while retaining a competitive price position for value-added macadamia products among young, cash sensitive consumers in China. NIS supply shortages may push NIS prices up in the coming months as the grower countries anticipate an increase in NIS buyer enquiries towards year end. Meanwhile, a trader notes that Europe’s kernel inventories cover retailer needs for this year, but 2025 needs are still to be met. NIS commitments generally dominate the early calendar, but the lack of kernel stocks may draw greater supply to take advantage of the better prices on offer. The difficult experience of many Kenyan producers who exported directly to China only to have shipments rejected may cause them to consider returning to sales with local processors. This could restrict the availability of NIS next year depending global production growth. Time will tell but suppliers will have to carefully consider the size of the 2025 harvest, the intensity of early NIS commitments, and their NIS/kernel marketing split to make the most of market opportunities.
In The News…
24 August 2024: Managing macadamia production when margins are low.
22 August 2024: #WorldPlantMilkDay: A closer look at Giraf Macadamia Milk’s journey.
21 August 2024: India-Africa should target to double trade to USD 200 bn over next seven years: Piyush Goyal.
20 August 2024: Kakuzi triples profit to Sh348 million on higher avocado, macadamia sales.
20 August 2024: Mauna Loa Donates Nutritious Macadamia Snacks to Children for National Macadamia Nut Day.
20 August 2024: Australia: $41M to accelerate the development of new almond, apple, citrus, macadamia and mango varieties.
18 August 2024: Australia’s Macadamia Nut Market: Challenges and Adjusted Forecasts for 2024.