Foreword
Dear readers,
I’ve just come back from India where – through the efforts of the WMO, SAMAC and Ampro Marketing – I had the opportunity to attend MEWA 2025, the second edition of the country’s trade show for the global nuts and dried fruit industry. I was impressed again by the enormous potential that India holds for the macadamia industry, and gained further insights and understanding of the market. I’m grateful for the warm welcome I and other delegates received there and for the opportunity to have such meaningful engagements with a wide variety of people at MEWA.
It has reinforced for me the importance of the value that the MSM trading platform holds to bring greater ease to international macadamia trade. The price spread between kernel and NIS, together with the apparent trajectories of the two categories, has incentivised suppliers to favour a greater percentage of the upcoming harvest to kernel markets. For many handlers this will mean new markets with new buyers; and markets such as India will be in focus. The MSM platform reduces transaction risks, costs, and complexities associated with searching out new trade relationships.
The platform provides the market with vetted buyers and sellers, up-to-date market intelligence, and allows for market signalling that contributes to effective price discovery. It provides smart contracts and dispute resolution mechanisms and offers independent verification of food safety and quality assurance. The platform offers convenience and assurance in complex times.
Thank you for hosting us, India! We look forward to growing the macadamia trade with you, bringing strength to suppliers and buyers alike and providing consumers with widespread access to the queen of nuts.
Macadamia Price Trends
Average weekly kernel and NIS prices in observed transactions for the five-week period of Week 3 to Week 7 of 2025 can be seen in the charts below. Average kernel prices for the period are slightly lower than prices observed at the end of 2024 showing a tapering off of the upward trend in prices seen last year. This might be expected as the January/February market can be quiet, with buyers and sellers taking their time to conclude early contracts. The five-week period shows an increase in average NIS prices against those observed towards the end of 2024. However, the recent period includes a single high NIS22+ trade which may not be repeated, and the average may fall in the period ahead. Observed NIS20-22 prices rose consistently since mid-2024 and appear to be retaining their levels despite trading being quiet over the Chinese New Year.
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
The MSM trading platform has South African and Kenyan kernel offers available. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 131544 | 8 | 15.31 |
| Style 1S | 51030 | 3 | 13.75 |
| Style 4L | 68040 | 4 | 11.50 |
| Style 4S | 145152 | 9 | 10.53 |
| Style 5 | 39599.28 | 3 | 9.18 |
| Style 6 | 14560.56 | 2 | 7.20 |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10.1% Style 0, 50.6% Style 4S, 10.1% Style 5, 10.1% Style 6, 10.1% Style 7, 9.2% Style 8 | 16839.90 | 9.1 |
| 2.9% Style 0, 97.1% Style 1S | 3485.58 | 13.05 |
| 39% Style 1, 61% Style 1S | 3980.34 | 14.2 |
| 51.5% Style 0, 48.5% Style 1S | 5375.16 | 15.03 |
| 7.1% Style 1S, 92.9% Style 4S | 5465.88 | 10.64 |
| 76.8% Style 5, 23.2% Style 6 | 9514.26 | 8.66 |
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Market Sentiment
Suppliers remained bullish in their kernel offers in the recent period, although there is some tempering of prices as the market moves towards finalising early contracts. Prices are particularly buoyant for snacking styles, and less so for ingredient styles. However, it is still early days in the 2025 marketing season. Given the rise in downstream macadamia product innovation over the past year, ingredient-style demand is expected to be strong.
Kernel markets hold greater value for suppliers than in previous years which will provide some competition to China’s NIS markets; these have shown muted price movements in comparison. The one exception is the smaller size NIS20-22 which has risen in price since November 2024 closing the gap with NIS22+ prices. During last year, shortages of NIS20-22 grew in the market as suppliers switched from raw exports to cracking the smaller nut to take advantage of rising kernel prices. Suppliers may adopt similar tactics this year and appear to be waiting out the market’s direction, especially in light of large orders from Europe which often occur in the first quarter.
Mundus Agri reports that hazelnut suppliers are in a similar position as they wait for Ferrero to release its orders for 2025. As China’s domestic macadamia market shifts towards processed goods, it needs to carefully manage raw product prices with its fiercely competitive consumer snack market. Chinese buyers may also feel justified in their NIS price stance as their inventory positions are improved against this time last year after higher domestic production in Q4 2024 and softer consumer spending over the country’s New Year’s celebration. While time is still needed to see the impact of these developments on NIS prices looking ahead, it could mean the further evolution of China as a kernel market for the world’s suppliers.
Estimations of 2025 supply have started to come in and both Australia and South Africa are positive about the growth in production in the year ahead. However, Standard Bank reports that extreme heat experienced in South Africa may impact nut size and weight.
In The News…
19 February 2025: The pulse of food, health and snacking: Fresh consumer insights revealed.
17 February 2025: Australian macadamias gain improved market access to India.
14 February 2025: [South Africa] Standard bank Horticulture Biweekly Insights Report.
13 February 2025: [Australia] Marquis Macadamias appoints new managers to expand global market presence.
11 February 2025: MacDay 2024: South Africa’s mac sector urged to cement marketing.
11 February 2025: [Australia] Marquis Group toasts to strong 2024 macadamia season.
10 February 2025: AFA enforces strict measures against illegal macadamia harvesting, trade, and smuggling in Kenya.
7 February 2025: [Kenya] Govt Warns Macadamia Nut Farmers Against Harvesting & Processing Immature Nuts.
6 February 2025: World Macadamia Organisation expands membership to wider value chain.
4 February 2025: How tariffs could impact Hawaii.
3 February 2024: World Macadamia Organisation report on PTNPA.
What does MSM Offer You?
MSM not only provides market information through these updates, we offer solutions. We’re continuously growing and improving the tools available for every stakeholder in the industry to better position themselves in this ever-changing landscape. Click the link below to read more.
Stratamarkets
In the past we’ve shared Stratamarkets Weekly Reports in this report to increase market transparency and encourage industry players to participate in the sharing of market information. Since the beginning of July 2024 this information is only available behind a Stratamarkets paywall.
Stratamarkets offer price reports for macadamias and other nuts. Please visit their website, and we encourage you to subscribe as a member. Stratamarkets offer a variety of subscription plans and incentives for access to valuable market information.
Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.