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In the market this week:
It has been a busy week in the macadamia trade. More deals are being made, especially for kernel products, as buyers rush to lock in good prices. At the same time, sellers are holding out on in-shell (NIS) sales, hoping for better offers.
The kernel/NIS price spread widened slightly this week on the back of an increase in kernel transactions. Trade figures from the first quarter bear out processor bias for kernel transactions this year over inshell sales, as both the United States and the European Union imported substantially in value over the same period last year. Average observed kernel prices have remained steady (even declining slightly since April), supporting the rise in concluded contracts, while the gap between inshell buyers and sellers on pricing has meant thin trade continues despite high demand.
The MSM platform was built exactly for times like these—offering market participants an independent, structured environment to trade, price, and plan with confidence when external conditions are volatile and complex market differentiation is risky within the face of substantial yearly increases in production and trade volumes.
If you need any assistance, call or message us on +27 67 331 2720, or simply hit reply to this email.
Macadamia Price Trends
The graphs below compare prices in observed transactions in the most recent five-week period of 2025 (Weeks 16 to 20) with the previous five-week period (Weeks 11 to 15). Where trades were observed and comparison is possible, the trend shows upward movement in average prices for Style 1 and Style 2, with declines for Style 0 and Style 4L.
Average observed prices for inshell categories remained steady over the two periods as trading remained thin and buyers and sellers continued to see pricing differently.
The wide kernel/NIS price spread is at the heart of quieter NIS trade. At average NIS prices observed of late, it is more profitable for processors to crack nuts received from farmers than to sell them on as inshell. The price spread widened slightly on the back of an increase in the number of kernel transactions this past week, with prices remaining buoyant. Given limited market visibility, MSM’s volume-weighted daily average kernel/NIS price spread calculation should be read as an estimated trendline indicating direction and magnitude rather than as providing detailed statistics.
Market Sentiment
An increase in kernel transactions was observed this past week. In keeping with previous business cycles, the number of kernel transactions is expected to remain elevated through July while shipping will lag by a few months. More kernel transactions were observed in the first quarter this year than last year, which is now borne out by trade figures published to the end of March, which show a significant increase in the value of US and EU kernel imports from the top eight macadamia supplying countries over the same period last year. Recovering demand in these two consumer markets, a favourable kernel/NIS price spread, and a pre-tariff surge in imports by US buyers are likely behind the rise in kernel trade. In addition, although kernel prices are elevated against last year’s prices, they have steadied this year, while average prices even declined in certain categories since April. More details on trade figures will be provided in MSM’s monthly report in early June.
The strong demand is being met with a growing supply. The recent International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) annual congress confirmed crop estimates from earlier this year, projecting a 9% increase in global macadamia supply in 2025 (on a kernel basis). South Africa and Australia, accounting for over 40% of global supply, were estimated to produce 151,000 metric tonnes (on an in-shell basis) between them, a figure revised downwards slightly after extreme weather events in Australia affected crop production.
The booming kernel market is affecting NIS supply to China. Demand for in-shell trade remains high in China, but current pricing makes opting for kernel contracts more lucrative for suppliers. China’s crop estimate was also confirmed at the INC congress at around 75,000 metric tonnes (on an in-shell basis), indicating substantial domestic production, but the country is still dependent on the international supply of larger, higher-quality nuts used in onshore processing for its evolving consumer markets.
Exchange Rate Watch
The US dollar strengthened against the Euro and macadamia-origin country currencies last week as key trade deals were concluded and speculators increased dollar demand under a perceived easing in global risks. By the end of the week, however, the dollar weakened with news of a downgrade in the United States’ sovereign status by credit rating agency, Moody’s, over concerns with the country’s deteriorating debt situation. In addition, with improved global conditions, emerging markets such as South Africa became more attractive, boosting their currencies.
Freight Cost Watch
US-China trade rebounded with news of a 90-day pause in the two countries’ trade war, substantially reducing import tariffs. A container-tracking company noted a 300% increase in cargo bookings for the route from China to the US in the week following the trade agreement between the two countries. Freightos Baltic Index’s benchmark global pricing—based on actual container bookings, quotes and transactions—edged upwards in response to the sudden increase in demand for containers.
How does MSM verify sellers, and what protections are in place to prevent buyers from being scammed?
User Verification & Certification Requirements:
All users must complete detailed onboarding documentation and sellers provide third-party food safety and quality management (FSQM) certifications—such as BRC, FSSC 22000, or HACCP. Each consignment sold on the platform requires COA’s and 2 samples: one retained in storage by MSM for potential dispute resolution, and one for organoleptic testing.
Due Diligence Window:
Upon entering a contract, users have a 10-day due diligence period during which they can cancel the agreement with valid cause. During this time, MSM shares a full information pack on the counterparty, including their certifications, compliance documents, trade history, and any audit notes.
Physical Facility Verification:
Where possible, MSM conducts in-person inspections of seller facilities. If a site has not been physically verified, this is transparently flagged in the documentation provided to the buyer.
Optional Escrow and Third-Party Financing Services:
MSM offers users the option of phased escrow payments or third-party intermediaries who can provide financing and phased logistics and payment solutions. This offers an additional layer of transaction security.
Standardized Cover Contracts:
All trades on the MSM platform are governed by uniform, pre-vetted cover contracts. Though this standard robust contract template can be supplemented with agreed-upon addendums to allow flexibility, it is designed to ensure that both parties operate under clearly defined standard terms—reducing the risk of misunderstandings, misaligned expectations, or ambiguous obligations.
By minimizing room for interpretation ambiguity or legal maneuvering, this structured standard agreement helps foster fair, transparent, and efficient transactions for all parties involved.
Ongoing Risk Mitigation:
MSM’s verification protocols, transparency measures, and secure transaction services significantly reduce the risk of unethical behaviour. While no system can guarantee zero risk, MSM’s structure allows users to reduce their exposure through the additional tools and processes offered and constantly improved upon.
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
Prices Open for Negotiation
The MSM trading platform has kernel offers available from several countries. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 199 584 | 11 | 15.14 EXW |
| Style 1S | 85 050 | 5 | 13.87 EXW |
| Style 4L | 588 546 | 36 | 11.50 EXW |
| Style 4S | 162 162 | 10 | 10.47 EXW |
| Style 5 | 39 599 | 3 | 9.18 EXW |
| Style 6 | 28 169 | 3 | 6.70 EXW |
| Total | 1 103 110 | 68 | 11.13 EXW |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10% Style 0, 50.13% Style 4S, 10% Style 5, 10% Style 6, 10% Style 7, 9.13% Style 8 | 16 839.90 | 9.10 EXW |
| 137 Bxs Style 1, 214 Bxs Style 1S | 3 980.36 | 14.20 EXW |
| 9 Bxs Style 0, 298 Bxs Style 1S | 3 485.58 | 13.05 EXW |
| 244 Bxs Style 0, 230 Bxs Style 1S | 5 375.16 | 15.03 EXW |
| 644 Bxs Style 5, 195 Bxs Style 6 | 9 514.26 | 8.66 EXW |
| 34 Bxs Style 1S, 448 Bxs Style 4S | 5 465.88 | 10.64 EXW |
| 650 Bxs Style 5, 800 Bxs DP (6 – 14mm, diced pieces and halves, No Immature Nuts) | 16 443.00 | 6.64 EXW |
| 190 Bxs Style 0, 550 Bxs Style 2, 150 Bxs Style 5, 70 Bxs Style 6, 77 Bxs Style 7, 230 Bxs C1 (>14mm, 99% wholes, Minor Defects, No Immature Nuts), 183 Bxs DP (6–14mm, diced pieces and halves, No Immature Nuts) | 16 443.00 | 10.53 EXW |
| Total | 77 547.00 | 10.98 EXW |
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In The News…
16 May 2025: Global nut and dried fruit industry meets in Spain.
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Stratamarkets
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Disclaimer:
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