Foreword
Dear readers,
The Chinese New Year is almost upon us with orders placed and shipped, and increasingly the industry’s attention is shifting towards 2025. South African farmers are focused on nut set, nut drop, hail warnings and adverse weather conditions. Meanwhile, marketers are wondering what impact Kenya’s early harvest ban will have and what the muted NIS price signals from China mean for the market next year. The MSM trading platform provides buyers and sellers with an additional means of learning about next year’s market, providing much more transparency and insight into how the market is viewed. By placing/increasing offers, bids and orders on the platform, the market can grow in understanding and buyers and sellers can more effectively assess their risks and their options.
Since MSM’s launch, we have worked hard to prime the market for this.
Onboarding and uploading operations will pick up steam as uncertainties regarding Kenyan supply are resolved and South African activities get into full swing after the Christmas break. Sign up in time and ready yourself to take full advantage of the new opportunities presented through modern trade. Start sending market signals through offers, bids and orders and let’s make next year a more intelligence-driven and transparent one for a market set on growth!
Macadamia Price Trends
The two graphs below compare average prices in reported trades for the most recent five-week period (Weeks 43-47) with the five-week period that preceded it (Weeks 38-42). Average prices in observed transactions continue to increase for whole styles after an uptick in noted trades for Style 0, Style 1 and Style 4L in recent weeks.
There was little observed movement in prices for NIS categories.
Market Sentiment
The World Macadamia Organisation published a revised 2024 crop estimate for South Africa. The new estimate of 88,048 metric tonnes (at 3.5% moisture NIS) is significantly higher than the 83,726mt forecast in July. The international organisation reports that better-than-expected performance by the country’s new and young orchards late into the harvest period led to the upward revision by the local industry. This means that South Africa’s crop is now thought to have increased 12.7% over 2023’s production (78,110mt), which was itself 15.7% bigger than the 2022 crop. Only Vietnam is estimated to have experienced larger crop growth this year (15% growth over last year, with a crop of 10,350mt). Australia’s 2024 forecast remains unchanged at 50,830mt (5.0% growth over the previous year). South Africa’s production growth has been estimated by the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council to be on track to reach 150,000mt per annum by 2029. Extreme weather events earlier this year affected volumes and nut maturity at harvest leading to an estimate in July lower than the initial 92,000mt crop thought possible. The November upward revision is accompanied by optimism that further production growth is expected in 2025.
Currently, the South African industry is closely observing nut set amidst reports of hailstorms that might have a significant influence in the year ahead along with prevailing hot and dry conditions into early summer.
Recent storms in the Mpumalanga Lowveld, for example, have affected macadamia farms in key grower regions, causing losses. Farmer’s Weekly in South Africa reported one Lowveld farmer losing around 25 hectares of crop to hail during nut setting. “The trees were looking really good,” the farmer lamented, “and we were expecting a very good crop.” In addition, concerns in both South Africa and Australia continue about the impact of insect damage on crops. Despite these concerns and a degree of orchard neglect due to recent low farm gate prices, most industry players feel that the large number of young orchards coming to fruit will yield a larger crop next year. There are also reports from various sources in Australia that nut set is good, also leading to optimism about the crop to follow.
The expected production growth in both South Africa and Australia could see more producers and processors favouring kernel production since NIS price recovery has cooled. Muted NIS prices reflect China’s changing domestic production, processing and consumption patterns, and its bearing on the decision-makers in that arena. Meanwhile, kernel prices have shown sustained increase, and the kernel/NIS price spread has grown during 2024.
In The News…
14 November 2024: [Zimbabwe] Macadamia Exports Hit Five Year High.
14 November 2024: Demystifying the voluntary carbon market for farmers.
13 November 2024: [South Africa] From the corporate world to macadamia cultivation.
12 November 2024: A Crunch for Macadamia Nuts?
11 November 2024: Milkadamia’s Sheet-Form Milk: Innovating Sustainability In Plant-Based Products.
What does MSM Offer You?
MSM not only provides market information through these updates, we offer solutions. We’re continuously growing and improving the tools available for every stakeholder in the industry to better position themselves in this ever-changing landscape. Click the link below to read more.
Stratamarkets
In the past we’ve shared Stratamarkets Weekly Reports in this report to increase market transparency and encourage industry players to participate in the sharing of market information. Since the beginning of July 2024 this information is only available behind a Stratamarkets paywall.
Stratamarkets offer price reports for macadamias and other nuts. Please visit their website, and we encourage you to subscribe as a member. Stratamarkets offer a variety of subscription plans and incentives for access to valuable market information.
Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.