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Overview:
August has at times been described as “the Sunday of summer”, a time on the northern hemisphere calendar when transaction volumes, market liquidity and volatility can be at their lowest for the year. That it should be the case in 2025, filled with its uncertainty, is puzzling, according to Investec chief investment strategist Chris Holdsworth, but regardless across equity, currency, and fixed income asset classes and across countries, August was indeed quiet this year, with volatility levels low. Quiet also describes the past month in the macadamia market, with prices and offers stabilising after some movement in June and July ahead of the US tariff announcements.
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Overview Continued:
A quiet August gives opportunity to review the first six months of the year (H̵1̶ ̷2̸0̵2̶5̷). Restricted Australian and South African supply is a factor this year, while the ̴3̸0̸%̷ ̸t̵a̶r̷i̴f̵f̴ on South African macadamias entering the US is expected to lead to some s̴h̶i̴f̶t̵s̷ ̶i̶n̸ ̷g̸l̸o̵b̵a̸l̷ ̴s̷o̷u̴r̵c̸i̷n̴g̷ by American buyers and m̵a̸r̷k̴e̴t̵ ̴d̷i̸v̸e̶r̷s̷i̵f̸i̷c̶a̶t̶i̵o̶n̶ ̸o̵f̵ ̵s̴u̵p̴p̷l̷y̶ by South African suppliers. Some f̷r̸o̴n̶t̵l̴o̸a̶d̵i̷n̷g̸ was observed in the months ahead of tariff implementation, which led to ̵h̸i̴g̸h̵e̶r̶ ̸v̶o̴l̴u̷m̵e̵s̸ ̸i̶m̷p̴o̶r̴t̴e̴d̶ ̴i̸n̴ ̴H̷1̶ ̸2̷0̶2̴5̴ ̵o̸v̸e̷r̴ ̵H̷1̷ ̸2̸0̸2̵4̵, but whether this sustains into H2 2025 is still an open question. H1 2025 also saw the l̷o̷n̸g̴-̵t̷i̶m̵e̷ ̷u̴p̶w̴a̵r̵d̷ ̴t̸r̴e̵n̵d̸ ̸i̸n̶ ̷i̸n̷g̷r̶e̷d̶i̵e̸n̴t̴ ̴s̶t̴y̸l̵e̴ ̵p̶r̶i̷c̵e̶s̶ reverse from March.
South Africa and Vietnam, in particular, but also Kenya, Guatemala, Malawi, and Australia, i̴n̷c̵r̵e̸a̵s̶e̸d̷ ̸s̵h̵i̵p̸m̸e̷n̵t̵s̵ to the US in H̶1̶ ̶2̵0̷2̶5̸, compared to H̶1̶ ̸2̸0̵2̸4̸.
European destinations have also shown r̵o̶b̸u̶s̸t̶ ̵d̴e̵m̷a̴n̵d̷ for kernel macadamias in H̶1̶ ̶2̵0̷2̶5̸, mostly in whole styles. Import volumes to Germany for the six months have outstripped those seen in the same periods in previous years, averaging 3̸8̷7̴t per month since September 2̵0̴2̸4̶ and rising to 4̴5̵4̴t for J̴u̴n̴e̸ ̷2̵0̴2̶5̷. Spain also showed an i̴n̶c̴r̶e̶a̵s̶e̶ in macadamia market activity in J̵u̶n̶e̶ ̸2̴0̴2̶5̷. South Africa and Australia made v̴o̶l̸u̶m̶e̸ ̸g̷a̸i̴n̵s̵ ̸o̷v̷e̸r̸ ̶H̷1̶ ̶2̵0̶2̴4̴.
H̵1̶ ̶2̸0̸2̷5̶ does not, of course, tell the full story of trade trends. Volumes shipped from Guatemala and Vietnam will accelerate into H̷2̸ ̴2̶0̵2̵5̴ as their crop is harvested and processed, while Kenya will also be shipping its ‘second season’ crop in
H̷2̸ ̴2̶0̵2̵5̴. Meanwhile, kernel imports to China have i̶n̶c̷r̴e̷a̵s̵e̸d̶ ̵ from Australia this year against last year, as imports from South Africa and Kenya have d̵r̸o̵p̶p̴e̷d̶.
NIS imports to China have d̸e̸c̴l̸i̵n̷e̷d̶ ̸ in H̷1̸ ̷2̵0̷2̸5̴ compared to the same period in previous years. Rising kernel prices, together with a g̸r̵o̵w̶i̵n̵g̶ ̷k̴e̶r̷n̵e̸l̸-̶N̷I̷S̸ ̴p̷r̷i̸c̴e̶ ̷s̷p̵r̴e̸a̸d̸ (incentivising processors to c̷r̸a̴c̴k̵ ̷a̶ ̸g̷r̴e̸a̴t̶e̷r̵ ̷p̷e̶r̵c̷e̷n̵t̵a̴g̷e̴ of their harvests), have played a part in r̶e̵d̷u̴c̸e̴d̶ shipping, as has the fact that China started the year with some onshore inventory of NIS stock. However, there is still substantial shipping of NIS to c̴o̷m̵e̶ ̵i̷n̴ ̴H̶2̶ ̷2̵0̵2̸5̶.
Average Prices
Average monthly prices of s̵o̴m̷e̶ ̸s̶t̶y̷l̵e̵s̵ ̴f̸i̴r̴m̴e̸d̴ under the quieter trading conditions during August.
Immediate Outlook
Trade data from the first half of the year confirms the s̶h̵i̵f̶t̸ ̷i̴n̴ ̴f̵o̷c̷u̷s̴ ̷t̵o̷ ̸k̶e̷r̵n̷e̴l̵ ̴m̴a̷r̵k̵e̶t̸s̶ from NIS. With supply growth appearing to be c̵o̶n̵s̸t̷r̷a̸i̷n̷e̶d̷ so far this year, this shift has come at the expense of NIS volumes as observed on a year-by-year basis. How much of a concern this will be to buyers in C̵h̴i̶n̸a̴ will depend on the role that early-year onshore inventories played in managing supply, and also what role C̶h̵i̴n̷a̷’̵s̶ ̸d̵o̴m̸e̷s̷t̷i̷c̴ ̵c̷r̴o̸p̶ will play in meeting demand. Various sources are pointing to i̷m̵p̷r̷o̷v̸e̸d̶ ̴q̸u̴a̷l̵i̴t̷y̶ in the harvest, which could r̷e̶d̷u̵c̵e̵ ̴C̵h̴i̶n̶a̸’̴s̷ dependency on i̴m̵p̵o̶r̸t̷e̷d̷ ̸N̵I̸S̸.̸ However, the same sources caution it is too early in the harvesting period to draw conclusions yet. Each year, a larger percentage of C̵h̴i̶n̸a̴ consumer market seeks kernel macadamia products over N̵I̴S̶ ̴s̸n̶a̵c̸k̴i̸n̷g̸. Should C̵h̴i̶n̸a̴ remain significantly dependent on imported macadamias, but the kernel-NIS spread continues to incentivise processors t̸o̸ ̶c̴r̴a̷c̸k̴ ̴s̷t̴o̴c̴k̷, C̵h̴i̶n̸a̴ could enter the kernel market in a more significant way in the future.
Trade trends
The graphs below superimpose import volume and import value timelines for key macadamia nut markets for the past 20 months. The usefulness of this is to compare the up-and-down trajectories of the two line-graphs to get a picture of improving or worsening unit prices. Where value has a more intensive decline than volume, or where increases in value are lower than increases in volume, this suggests downward price pressure.
Latest official trade statistics are available to June 2025. Imports appear to be c̶l̸i̴m̸b̷i̶n̷g̸ ̷s̶t̸r̶o̵n̸g̵l̵y̵ in the US, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain, while d̴e̸c̵l̷i̶n̴i̸n̷g̶ in the UK, Japan, and South Korea. Higher imports in the US may have more to do with f̴r̸o̸n̶t̶l̴o̸a̷d̶i̴n̴g̸ ̷i̶n̷v̷e̴n̵t̵o̶r̸i̶e̶s̴ ahead of t̷a̸r̸i̷f̶f̶ ̵i̷m̷p̴l̸e̶m̶e̸n̸t̸a̴t̶i̴o̸n̴ than i̵n̴c̷r̴e̷a̷s̶e̸d̷ ̶d̶e̴m̶a̶n̶d̶ demand.
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Prices Open for Negotiation
The MSM trading platform has kernel offers available from several countries. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
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Negotiable Single Style Offers Available
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg EXW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Style 1 | 88 452 | 4 | 15.20 EXW |
| Style 1S | 51 030 | 3 | 14.45 EXW |
| Style 2 | 17 010 | 1 | 13.20 EXW |
| Style 4L | 405 745 | 26 | 11.51 EXW |
| Style 4S | 35 721 | 4 | 11.36 EXW |
| Style 5 | 27 670 | 2 | 8.85 EXW |
| Style 6 | 36 742 | 3 | 7.47 EXW |
| Style 7 | 1 361 | 1 | 7.20 EXW |
| Total | 663 730 | 44 | 11.58 EXW |
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In The News…
3 August 2025: 🇺🇸 US tariffs seen m̷a̸n̸a̴g̷e̶a̸b̵l̶e̷ ̵a̵s̷ ̴S̶̶̵A̵̵̴ ̷̸̸ macadamia marketers diversify and processors expand – T̶h̷e̴ ̵M̵a̴c̷a̸d̷a̷m̵i̴a̶
1 August 2025: ⚖️ Appeals court deems Trump’s global tariffs i̶l̸l̶e̶g̷a̴l̶, tees up Supreme Court fight – B̵B̷C̶
30 July 2025: 🧪 Application Solutions Guides deliver tested macadamia formulations ̶f̵o̸r̵ ̸f̵a̷s̷t̴e̷r̸ ̶c̸o̷m̷m̸e̴r̷c̶i̵a̷l̴ ̸l̸a̶u̵n̴c̷h̵e̵s̸ ̴-̵ ̴A̸u̶s̵t̴r̴a̷l̶i̸a̷n̸ ̸M̷a̷c̷a̶d̸a̸m̷i̷a̵s̵
29 July 2025: 🛡️ F&B leaders outline 2̶0̶2̶5̸ ̴p̴l̷a̷y̶b̷o̴o̸k̶ ̷t̷o̷ ̸m̴i̵t̷i̵g̴a̶t̴e̷ tariffs and supply shocks – LinkedIn (Gulfood Digest)
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