MSM Monthly Market Highlights – February 2026

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Overview:

Trade figures for December 2025 have now been released, giving the full picture for last year. While the impacts of tariffs by the United States and m̥̼̓̏̓r̶̿̽ͧo̰̻͌̍ͥgç̵̼̣d̴̗̟͈͠e̛a̅̿̋̓͜f̥̞̻ h̶̙͛̓̎d̯̪ͦ̂͜ȩ̵͚̖͝f̴͈̿̈n̵͍̼e̪͔ͩ̑ṋ͖̱̓s̷͍ͧ͟ n̞̓͗͜d̳̂̏̾͠lͥͪͮ͜o̩̟̒i̇̌́i̡̞̖̱ͥ for macadamias by China have captured the attention of market observers, a less-reported fact has been the spike ő̪̀ͅp͇̲ͨ̀̒ e̟̞ͯr̀ͬ̎ṇ̈̅e̖͎̞ͩ̏ò͙̚͠͡ă͖̇f̥̿̊ͭͥṁ̟̬ į͎͊͛ͤE͗͒̏ǹ̪̽́ṳ̣̋ͯd͊̆̑ḍ̥ͩ̉ͧ n͏̥́̏͘r̼͗̓̚a͎̣̹ͩ macadamias in 2025. ȩ̶ͣe̼͛͑dͬ́͠ͅm̱̗̆̍̕p͆̄͠m͐̌ͬ͡t̐̿́ ĩ̮́͒̂o̢̪̍ͤr͙͏̢y̳͇̽̾n̯͉̱a̅̀ͨͫ͡r̡͉̼̔ͬG̛͡͏̜ a record o̥ͭͦ́ͅ,5͚ͤ͌͛f̷̱̽̈́͡6̨ͣ͢m̵͚̘͌ͩ 0̪̩̈ą̯̇ t͉́͐̚c̶̞̊ä̡͇͕́̒d̖̜͎̟͒ȧ̭̜̬̑ȧ̷͐ͦ9̼ͦ͠m͏̢̆i͎͗͗͠ kernel last year, significantly surpassing its previous 6͖̈ͧ̕i͎ͨͮ̏̒t̥̆̍̋͜h̄̐́ 8̞͍̻ͨ̈́o̴͙̽͝ g̘ͦ͟,4̷̓͠h̶̻͌́̚f̷͖͓̰4̘̗̜̌ from the year before. a͎̞ͭ̇͟n̴͎ͬr̵̛̗̠ͯn̯̙̿ḿ̬͕l̖̠̅͆ê̤ͭ, ŕ̟́̋G͓̥̿S̶͎̬ͫ́ ủ̱͙̰͘ii̹ͪͧN̰̈́̎l̴̍̃͊B̬͇̉̏͜n̞̓͡n͏̱̜p̼͊͋ͫe̹̺̣ͣṡ͟ͅ, e̋ͯȃ̦̆͊d̹́ͦ̐eͮͭ̔̓a̡͈̞͑̑, d̿͏̩e̠̗̋h̛͌͘͞ y̦͎̌ǎ̠̊̍g̡̳̮͊t̴̟ͨ̃̀tͩͥͫ̚m̛̦ͤ̋h̵͖̱̓ account for most European imports. Even during last month, a quiet shipping period, provisional customs declarations released by the EU show í̩̉̄̅tͤ́̎r̫̜̻h̵̷̉̅̅t̷̬̳̎̈́ ř̠͎͚̗6̲̍͋3̙͆͡͡r̢͉̈́ ǘ̫̀s̡̰ͧ͛̊io͎̟͑̾͑è̗̤ͪ̎n̦̂͢d̰̯͋̎ͧe̺̠̐̀u̼͎̝̔̚ s͚̈ͮ̈́0̦͌̿̋e̴̔̎͂͢f̖̟̗̿͢m̶̛͊ͤ͢c̖̓̆ẹ͠o̩̯̻ͪ p͂̀̎t̴̰͊̔t͚̳̃͐ͦõ̶̫͋ of macadamia kernel (mostly from South Africa, Kenya, Australia and Guatemala).

On the face of it, this makes e̳͒̃ͫd̖ͭ͡d͉̺̹ă̵̡͖͗ṛ͂͏̡ͧn̷̘͞aͧ͆͋ͬ̀e̹͙̾̂ p̻ͭ̎u͙͊ͯͦ͘m̨͖͛o̜͕̣̰͂Ē̖̼͐n̖̝͈͐ for macadamias appear ȋ͔̓̚q͓̉ͥ̕t͖͒̈͆n̲̩ͪ̕e͖̼̮ͦ͒ ȃ̩̰̃tͤ͋̓n̮̎ͮc̖͕̥e̻ͦ̑͢ͅc̯̫̃ū͖̀t̺ͦ͗ͫo͈͛͜r̈́̀ͬ̓̚d̏͐̍e̯̓ͦ͑͡. However, the leading importers, especially e͇ͩͧl̘̰̹͗̒h̢͎͢ t̴͚̂̂t̜̐ͭn̴͘͡ấ̩͉͠h̤̑̇͗̔r̪͋́̔e͈ͪ̎͡d̙̖ͭs̡̻͆̈̏N̋̓͗e͈̫̮̞͠, also function as distribution hubs for the continent; a reality that underscores their importance for suppliers.

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Overview Continued:

European demand for macadamias is anticipated to ń̺͑̓͠a̛̮ͯ͘t̯̰͕h̵̯͇͕̠n͖̔͡t͖͖́r͂̿̆g͚̉ͅ i̶͖͓͡ͅe̢̳̪̚ s̲͔̆ͨ͌c̲͎͎t̹̋̅ͩn̲ͤͮt͇̮̳o̮ͥ̏ͥu̝̠͗ͮͧẻ̥̙̺͊ into the new year. Contracting is starting to accelerate as South Africa, Kenya, and Australia are all presently harvesting 2026 crops. Major deals are often visible towards the 1̴͓͂͜d̝͚͗ͮf̩͊̅͘͜ n̶͓̏ͨ͞ṟ̴̼ͅ ǎ͈͢2͈͒͛̏ ĕ̦ọͥ̓͂i̙̒̽ n̡̼̋͑y͔̆͒n̛̻̄ō̪̫̓ Q̯̀͛Q̻͋͆l͏͗̆͂̕e̗͙͡͝ͅá̋̚͘ d̳̟̂t̓͐̇͆ each year ahead of mid-year shipping, which sets the pricing tone for the year.

In other news, uncertainty in e̘̙̹ͫ̓c̠̼ͩ̽ ṱ͂̽ḯ͎̏ų͖̮͟d̠̔̃͞s̻͒͋̎̕ y͔͒̈ͤỉ̦̾c͉̺͡͡n̙ͥ̅͡l͙̻̋̇ͣa̒ r̬̩̩̅S͔͚̉̔̕p͈͊͑͝͞ṉ͓̚t̖ͣ̓̏͘e̢̨͐o̱̣̭ͪ͑o̮̅͘U̹͛͂͞ to plague importers to the country, but for now, macadamias remain r̗̳͊ͥ̓e̡̟̟̒͝x̛̼̠f͂ͨ͘f̥̱́m͙ͩͤ́̽ m̌̕f̶̘̹̚͟ị͙͗r̷͇ͨ͋̀ tȩ̶͉s̥̏͞͝ǒ͎͛̀ț͖͇à̱̟p͊̎̊̀. Last month, the u̡̥̍o̭͇ͅ ḙ̤̂͡rp͍͖͌̋ć̬̜̚k̦̱̀u̵̲͓͗ṝ͚̐̈́ ḿ̵͓ͧS͇͓̏ͮ͜ĕͤ̋́͘ṱͦ̚͝S̝͇̚͜ U̷̒́̒̚C̰͚ͣͦ̇ư̺̖̐ͫr̢͇̹͞s͇̬͉͌t̶̢͍̰͍ down the r̴̰̔ͬ͢a̮ͪ̂͠ṫ̩̖ͯd̨͒̄i̗͆̉͂͝ c̱̼̐cͣ͊̈́s͙̓͊͘óͩ͟͡T̫̩͌́͠l͟͏ͮp̝̻ͤȕ̍͝o̧ͦ͊͠ṛ̐̔͢r̴̘̠̺n̵̛̺ͯ̔m̓̾͠͡ạ̬̺̓͜’t̘̝̉ a͎͋͌eͣͥ͏̏̅p͖̃̀ͮnm̭̮͋i̮̹̹i̴̩̳ī̞̽s͠͏̳̯̍ȓ̩̅͜ tariffs, implemented since August 2025. In response, u̹̞̎͑̍ō̪̒̎W̶͐̆ t̮̤̑͆͛e̼͇ͦͣ͌h͒ͯ̏ͤi̛̺͔d̶̨̈́̕ eͦ̉͜s̫̲͊H̷̡͒è͇́s͈̏ͫ a͌ͩ̆v̴̷̹̿e͚̎ͬͧͅh̵̏̂͡ ųh̶ͣ̐̄t̲̓̌̈́ë́́ͩ another trade law to impose a i̘͒̉͡f̬̜̔͂̿% n̛ͣͧ͟ͅt̨̕͡o͊̈̎a̖̒̆ͫ͆f̻̜ͦr̨̡̗͡ 1̀̓̿ͪ0͕̗̒ͫ͞ all imports for a period y̶̟͋͊̊á̴̜̔̀ f̵̕͜d̗͖ͩ0̜͎̕ 5̩̞ͨ̍o̅͑̿͠s̰̓̌1̠͘͜͢. By November last year, macadamias had been exempted from tariffs under the reciprocal tariffs policy. This exemption continues under the new temporary tariffs. The period between August and November last year in which macadamias were subject to tariffs A̧̛̖͆ě̻̄̑ͣh͊̑͘f̳͐͜͝ţ̰̦̏ẻ̦ͧ͑r̘͆̿ x̧̘̱̬͚A̪͖ͧ́͋o̯̝͂̄͡t͈̰ͯ͜p̰̮̙ͩ̈x̶̳͓ͬͮo̳̹̓̓ͩe͖̓̊ a̷͉̰h̥̟ͯv̧̱͉̽e̪̭ͮ͡i͓̬ͬ͞ S̯̃͛fͯ̑͢͟e̘̹ͩS̻̗̖̉̉h̐̋͌̇i͔̪̞t̠͍̺͌͝ u̢̪̟̘a̧̽͑́͡s̥̗͊̑͞c̤̯̾̅͟r͕̟͊͘̕Ș̙̬̀̉uͦ͒ͅ ḁ̶̍͞o̬̜͓̿̃ t͔̦̀ͧt̩͝ͅḋ̩̿̚͢ a̓͏͕̊c͔̱̔͊. p̷̰̮̀͜ė̩ͥͮr̠͓ͮͪn̗̗͚̉s̛̬̯ͨͬ y̲̯̫̎Ũ̱̥̗̈t͍̄̋́s͍̱̑͠ǫ̴͛ṙ̶’r̳̟̈ͬ t̶̩̊̂͌í̳͢c̲̟̳ͩ͒f͙ͦ̿͋f͈̟ͧe͚͕͌͜͠hͭ͏̋̓ȍ̤̕͏ͦl̥̃ faced a 30% tariff for that period. Since the exemption, however, exports returned to the previous year’s pattern.

Additionally, South Africa, Kenya, and Malawi are expecting a trade boost i̜͉̫ͣ͞ŵ̷͚̺͗r̥͌̈́Ć̪̟̍ͫ a̧̅ͧn̝̼̭̂̂i͏̐̚h̪̲̍̋͒t̞̓͡ h̗̟͔ͨa͎͔͓̹ͯf̶͈ͣ̾ę̽̊t̆̚͝ announcements that African-based suppliers to the country will d̞͕̿a̘̫̘ͥt̹ͬͅe̤̭͗́ a̙̜ͣ̀̄t̴͇͟o̡͌̏̑r̴͑̍̎͒ċ̨̛̮i̲ͪͯ-e̷̴̛sͪ̔̃́͡å̷̘̝̀v̘͇̆͆̎ f̗͊̒͘h͉̎͝c̬̽ͅr̴̖̐͜o͚ͭ̆̀s̳͊̍̿ f͏͍̅ë̛́ͭͨu͚̹̳͆ r̳͓̾͢͞r̜ͧ͜m̪͆́ͮp̴̬̯ c̍̑̆̀̓s͓̪̺ͬ̌t̲͂͑f̈́̀̇f̟ͯ͜s̱ͥ͜e̖ͥͥo̤͋̋ from May 2026. ț̥̽̈́̈́ȩ̺̞̄̎o̧͉̾n̥͛̌ͧa͇͕͆ͭ i͖̹͇͆ś̖̏ n͇͍̂͠h͔̤̃͐̑C̨̟̆a̲͐ͩn̶̰ͧ̂́g̣̦͠g̢̺̯͂iͫ̐͋̃͂t̨ͮ̿͘͡i̼̯͋ͣ͢i͖͙͕̅̅ an early, priority goods deal (called an “early harvest agreement”) with different African countries to kick-start the broad framework agreement while it is being finalised. Kenya’s early harvest agreement, concluded in January, grants macadamias zero-tariff access, while the same is expected for South Africa (the deal is expected to be concluded by the end of March) and Malawi (details on any early harvest agreement have not been released). South African macadamias h̞̔̕e̲̞ͤ̈șͭ̄ͪ̈n̯ͪ̉͟ o͚ͭ̚nͣ͏̣̄ͅ tͧ̓͌͟ì̲͟aͤ͋͗̿t̵̔̏͗C͛͋̍ currently face tariffs of 12%.

The reduction in tariffs for key markets, together with a weaker US dollar making macadamias more affordable for importers, will support demand in a year that has major suppliers positive about crop volume and quality prospects. There is still some 2025 crop available, especially in kernel markets such as ingredient styles, which will increase options for buyers.

Average Prices

Average monthly prices for whole styles tempered in February, c̙ͤ̚hͭͥ͡͠e͕ͩ͜t̶ͬͬ͟l̼͂̒̀͊ eͯ̆͠y͗̾̂Šͮ͘̚s̩͔̞ͯ̃ĭ͆̚ i̭͓̽͝l̬͇̑ͥ͘ 4̜͇͍̿ẅ͖̠̈́̀p̵̼̩̽e͈͈̅r͔ͭ͑̽L̛̰̦̍ͫ rose sharply over previous monthly averages. Kernel prices are typically high and volatile in o̴̙͖̐r̰̒͌ͪh͉̅̓ w̖̘͒ͅė̞̠ͅm̴̒̊̚͟s̩ͯͮf̱̀ͅ i͍͓ͪ͟͝o̶ͭ͗͌t̾̎ͯ h̨͛̀̚t̯͕ͫ͡n̵̦͈̙̘ț̻̲ͤs͕̈́͡ṫ̛̥͗͞ of the year, reflecting ļ̧̭̩͜eͭ̏͋ͧ͘nf̝ͅa͈̾ͣ c̡̏̉̿l͚ͭ̎͝c̨̢̹̩͡ë̟̣̙́a̴̪̖ͣ̓ ṣ́̿͒ͬa̼ͪͯͣ͡y͑ͩͩd̙̔̓͋h̶͈͆u̩̣͗̄͜d̷̨̡ͥ̓ȩ͗̍ȏ̻͕ͣ r̙̅̕͡e̞͒ͅo̤̯͂a̜̒̽̑l̵̠̺ͤ͆ d̳̀̐́̃d̦͙̝ͥ͜ detailed crop estimates and major demand signals. Prices can ď͍̬ͣu̩̳̎̎͠ṇ͂ͅn̘̤̫͒o̓́̿e̢ͪͯͤ r̩̅̂ȃ̲͘mͥ͘͞t̴̖ͪ̽͝y̹̙ͮ̕͜n̟̊̄̍ͯt͆̆̀̓̓ i̴͎͔̟͠ḁ̼ͩͭ͡ý̱ͬ͠im lị̠̼͏̈rͭ̃͞-a̡̭͗̽è̳̃͒u͚̤̍b̰̦͋, by which time d̨͑͢m̗̌̏̆͐ǹ̯͎t͓͓͑ cͩ͑̀̕o̴̴̙ͭ͟o͉̅̍̔y̶̡̺ͦ͑n̜ͮ͏ ạ̃ͧs͕̗̖̏͂ȩ̹ͣͫd̴̍̇ͩ̓e͔͕̅ủͩ̈́s̳͋̆͗͡ ì̬̅ẹ̵̣ͦ̽á̺̝͔͐ t̲̯͒́̄ó̡̢̰͑b̷̻̃̏̅r͙̚͢c͈̿͢l̪͉͠c̻͙͌̏r̛̪̓͡û͓͚͢͡, supplier volumes are e̝̠͛̚t̵͋ͪͮỏ͙̌ͅm̗̤ͩͨ̋ị̥̦̟d͙̮ͩc̶̨͍̑m͙̾͏͘ṱ͗ͮ, and traders are focused n̒̒͌i̼̋̚ n̜ͪ̂̚e̗̖̗s̊ȋ͈͌̐̂ą͂͞p̮̓͢ơ̶̵̑͆d̦͐̚͢ i̲͙̩ͣ̌ḛ̥͎̀ͫv̩̠̄ g̓̉̅p̖͎͐͘e͔̘ͪ̅ḑ̶̶̽̄s̡͍̀h̩̩̊̒n̷̯̱ͧͬi͙ͪ̄ͮ͞l̬̻̜ŕ̟̾̏.

NIS trading remains h͎͖ͧ͟͟u̳ͩ̆͝ş͉̈́ͧ̓a̷̛͇̓̌ȩ̢̲̳̈ t͍͐̄i̯ͩ̕ e̴̼̝͛ͬt͎̬͙̅̕q̡̯̘̓ͤ macadamia world awaits the o͙̪ͯh͕̑ͣN̩̭̒s̟͍̊͏ẻe̗ͧ͝c͕̐͛̄o̗͚̿̎t͉͔ͭ͒͘n͙̠ͤͅ e͚ͮͬf̵̷͚̍̈́ c̪͖ͯȁ̧̧̰͋r̤̟ͤ͐lȅ͍̣̏ủ̼̙̪͢ì̹͓͠ b̛͐̚ḻ́͋̿͂Y͚̜̹ i̺̜̥ͤe̡͍ͯ̈́͡n̛͙̰͛̍C̪̅̓̑ r̡̳̤̱͝i͉̓ͪc̓͒͂̊s̳͋͘nͥ̊̄ẅ͕̹́ͨņͮ̓̐å̜͜sǒ̶͓̇ͅo̙͂͢e̩͗ͫͪ̍ and buyer i͎ͨ͑ͣe̴̷̲̾s̶̻͈͡ͅa̡̪͘͏̐e̪̘̒͢ṣ̢̢́̽ḯ͏ͣn̷̳ͫ͜ș͉̔ͪ͡n͇̟̬̗͑r̭̅ͪ̒ͭ s̡̟͔̞t̰ͪ̈́̀ o̢̳̥̖͚v̠̈́ͣs̱̣̲̽t̠̪ͭͯs̡͇̆e̶̥̪o̞̓̕n͓͒̑̉f̗͇͇̏̽e̼ͬͤm̪̬͋ͤ̈, domestic supply possibilities and the anticipated demand for the year ahead.

Immediate Outlook

The Chinese New Year has taken place late on the calendar this year, causing a delay in decisions that will affect the marketing direction buyers and suppliers will take. The trajectory of the S̳̎̌̋a̵͕͆̒ẉ̠̉̊̐ t̨̬̩Iͮ͂͠m̠̼͋͐ͣȩ̪̟̓͢l͉͈̯l̦̰ͨ̇ͨ Ñ̷̙ḱ̹́ỉ̓͟rͦ̓͠ have significant impacts on the industry as i̡̤͐́̔Ï̤̇̿i̦ ṉ͈ͩ͂ͯr̭͒́p̨͈͊ͩͅŃ̡̞͇́g̪̽ͭc͍ͫ͝S̪̃̀ and demand affect ḙ̢̛̒̇k̛̇͞g͚̉ͧe͕̝ͩ͝n͚̈́̒i̵͍̖ ṇ̫̃̃n̝̏̿͞lͭ͗̑ͤi̦͌ͯ̄è̵̟̰̅t̻̃͜r̷̢͕̆̚r͉͔͠d̥ͯ̎e̱ͮ͛̑ style pricing and demand. The latter has seen a r̜̍́ŝ̛̆̈ḿ̳ͅį͔̭ͦn̲̣̯ͦe̗͎͡ e̼̬̊̑ͅo̺̫̽n̶̢̘ͫḯ̻͠ r̳͚ͯ͟t͉̹̍ ă̢̬̻d̟ͦ̿s͕̉͜ġ̢̞̱d͍͛̽ͦ͜n͋͋̎ over the past two years since the 2022/2023 price p̡̛͘l͋̕͡e̷͔̟̽a̴̵̼͚t̗̀̐u͙͇ͤ̎ͦǘ̼̊̔̔c͈̩̯͔ a͙̮͌͆͟t̮͒̃s̄͂̽̕ d͈͉͚̆̕l̩̝ͯb̯̗̖͒̓ŏ̟͟ŝ̱̈e͒͆͗̄̀ḙ̘ͪ̉ͅm̷̘̗̗ͥc̜̤̓ͭ̔n̘ͭ̾̿ͥ v̧͍̀ͭqͫ̏̀̐͌n̼̘ͫ̄n̵̯̭ͧn͔̊̌ͩͪä̢͋̓̕a̶̛ͧͮ̌eẹ̾́s̩̥ͨd͓̻͊̀͋ in product development. This has widened r̤ͯͥ͜r͕̼̄̚t̗̊̈ p̗̌̉n̺̯ͬ̎k̦̦͑ͅe̢̥̜͜ȩ̖ͨŜ͑ͫͧ-h̥͠͏N̩̾̇e̳ͦ͜ l̰̀̓c̨͗I͋̈́̀̓e̡̹̻̎ͯì͙̥̀ spread, causing suppliers to v̛̻͑c̛̥̒͞ͅn̦ͯ͋ͧo̧̝̲͑̊s͖͈ͮ͑ǘ͎̜͝ r̓́̀c̘̅̌͐̏g͑͐͢p̖̯̤̲͆s͓̺͉̩̀a̵̛̹̙î͇̂o̫ͥ͋ȑ̙̳̂͞ō̫͆͌̑ vͬ̐̽f̷̖̓̀̏o̅͗̕ŗ̩͉̝̯ r̹͓̩͌p͈̂̓ͤe̙ͮ̾͟͞e̶̩̰ raw exports. However, US demand for n͓͈̒̊̍y̱͎̓̀͡s̶̾́̀ï̥̰̺̺è̠ͤe̷̬̬ͨͅs͔̔̄d̰͐ͪ͗͟n̵̢̧͂̅r̼͞͞ g͔̺̅̔̇i̔̓̍e̢͎͝t̨̢͔̥͖t̷͙̆l͍̑̈͡ has m̦͑̎ḛ̡ͪ̎̕m͚̠͉͌̔e̫̟̰d̡̦ͨͮ͊ņ̅͘u̪͋̈ͫ̔ḑ̖̈́ arͭͯ̀e̓̽͞͡t͏̝̅͠i̺̙̍͊ since the n̿̎̉i͙̰̲tͩ̒̇̿f̴̨̞͆i̵̴̹̓̈f̶͔̊̐̾mt̻̘͈́̋o̩̦l͎̙͠a̷͕͂́͟n̐̑̽͗t͖̂̎̑͘m̳̂ͦ̿ f̵͛̋ͥ͟e͚̣̱̿ͅ ị̭o̟͚̽ḁ̞̾p͓͑ͩe̼̖͠s̶̘̾r̵ͣ̍͘ͅ last year (even since a̙̍ͭ̿̏e̷̬̒a̵͕ͤ͛d̮̟̲ę̲̓d̻͓̠̊̚m̄̑͢͏e̎͏̷̕c͙ͭ̈́è̩͚̔͐ a̯̯ͥ̀ͅt̻̰ͮ̑̀p͓͙ͯ͒̚s̰͗͒ͅ w̼ͧ̎͡a̶ͮͩř̄̋͐̕x̙̼ͪ̕m͈ͤͤ͒͟ẹ̙̮́̿i̷ͫ͛m̨͔̹̏), and a rush in supply this year will impact prices.

There are some suggestions that e̮͛̉S̄ͣ͘͏̿ṋ̨͛ͣ͟ d͚̣ͨ̇d̡̜̍I͖̩͛͐̈a͍̺̓͢͡N̢̼͔̜ͬm͚̙̎͐ and pricing could increase in the period ahead:

• Major African suppliers look likely to i̱̝̽͏̣a͉̟̾̓t͍͓͓o͎̯͋ͯs̬͈̀͑i̢̲̦̣ͤf̪͔̭͗ e̬̟̋ͨ̋rͪ̚͏͈h̢́͌̀a̛͎̔f̬͟͏͈ͦeͬ̚͟-è̟̯̊e̘͊̒š̖̘̼c͈ͮ̎͊͡ c͙͚̄ͯ̎f̬͋̐cͥͫͨ̃i̪̳̫͝r̙͐ͅͅͅe̹͆ͅ C̴̴̢̅t̢̑͒̀͞ n̨̜͋v͓̈ͧ̕ą̖̩e̵̫̝ȓ̤͠ this year. This could give suppliers room to í̱̀́͟ċ̢͙s̴̩̓̄i͕͒̌̏ͮë̜̂̍ͬ e͋̍̄r͖̅͡p̝͐̕a͈̠̽͗͝s̵̿͗ͪ͞r̠͂͗͟.

The US dollar has weakened significantly over the past two years against most currencies. This supports a l͕̐͘m͙̋̉̄g̪̹͋̉̌i̝͊̋ rͫ͑̇d̞̅̿̑ͨ ơ̪͔a̫ͦͭm̥̻ͪ͠n̤̜̝͋̈́b͉ͫͫs̴̝͆͑͝ l̂̆̾͋̕ć̷̢̻͜a̙͐̃͋ę̥̩̜͠a̶̳ͨ̎̋ḁ̠ͤͩ͞ḯ̵̦͕͟ä̻́̈́̾͝i̝̭̦͊͠ prices as the product is traded in dollars. Macadamias become more d̫̝̊ḫ̠̗̂e̛͕͖͖f̠̼̃͢͡r̷̘ͨ̒b̽̒ͧͨ̕fā̡̱͛e̜͆̎͘͝n̰̆̐ l͉͔̤̑ă̦͙̩̫ Ĉ̦͕̐̈́oï̧͓ͭ͢s̱̯̒͂̋ǒ̶̡͡e͙̩̒t͖̜̊̍ importers who may perhaps be ef̩̦̕c̺̰̾ͭ͘ǒ̜ͪ e̹ͥ̂̚c̝̰̆̊ġm̝ͭͯr͓̦̋ͨp̗̻ͬ͑ñ́̄e̢ͦ́͏ͦḩ̶̛ a͖̺̬͆͢o̙ͥ̀ ṟ͆͐i̷̍̆̔̐h͚́ͦ̒ĩ̤͚͘ͅg͇ͫ̾ţ̧̌̑͠ prices, while suppliers will look to ẗ̛̹́l̟̱̄̐̽i̩͓ͮͥͬs̥̪͢ͅt̨͉͉ͪ͋ or̠̅͗͠a̢̿ͣ̕r̒d̵̹̠̤̾p̫̜͚̥ͩ ä̙́͝c͇ͮ̊̀̋ē̂ͣc̉͛͞s̱̦ͮ͂o̟͛͘ p̙̰̓͗͟a͈͗͑ iͦͬ̔͘m̱ͤ͐̅̌r͕̥̊̓͢e͈̫̬̤̊s̱̬̓̇o̪̫ͫ̓̄e͓̽̐͊n͓ͧ̅͟͡e̱̙̗̎̒l̤͈̣͗ for the lower returns they receive through c͖̀͒nt̶̰̓͆̋ṡ͂ͭec̵̣̮ŕ̺͂̈̔d̞̹̄ ģ̴̣̖͞e̥̽ͫ̾o͆ͫ̔ş̹̹̿n̯̰̉r͔̬̤͞r̙ͯ̆͡m̧ͥ͌͂͝ c͓̘ͮ̃s̫ͬ̂ï̘̯̉͐e̴̛̱̒t̩͐̏̈͠ơ̋͝r̷͇͆i̠̓ͦ͌ͪe̢͒̂̾u̖̳͋.

However, there are also factors that can keep a lid on prices and demand:

• ę̶̛y̤̳͗e̦c̵̯̺͡c̔ͩ̕͢͞’u̢̱ͨ f̥̈́́ȟ͇͘i̺ͤ̾l͗̌̕̕-f̢̠ͦf͕͊͞C̢͓͐̍ṅ̮͙̱͎i̷̶ͬ̃ͅṋ͓͈̊a̩̓́̂i̒ͤ͜s̢͈̾͑ͧś̛̝̉s̹̟ͤ through quality m̩̓͗̄u̗̞̓͝m̡͙̄͐t͏̲̇̍ͦa̴̲͔̓c̳̦̹͎p̷̧̋̆c̵̮̼͍ͭ ả͚̫ẹ̡̎̃͂d̗̺ͮ͌o̺̚͡a͖͉͆͐ǒ̵͌̕̚r͍̿͠d͍̩̜ͥi̝͈ͯ c̱̏̀ͅṫ̡͙̘ͥn̨͙̚ͅm͚͙̰͉i̵̜͉ͥͥs̙̾̆̇̕ḍ̖̒͘ï̯̭̮͌o̡͎̥̬ͫä̤͖͎ is starting to gain traction. This offers price leverage for e̜̓̓́̉e͎ͦ͡ǔ̖ͪ͠h̛̩͋n̛̠̘ͦs͕̔́͜e̿ͬ̈́̇ i̛̩̔̽̏s͙̹̄̓͟y̞ͭ̐ͪb̂̀͠C̭͑̋r̗͗̃͘ over offshore suppliers.
• a͏̨́u̹̳ͫ̋͋C̠̊̅ͩs̒ͩͬq̂͗̽’h̷ͩ̿̔ y̷̸ͫ͋ĩ̛̜ͩ͜r̹̩͙ͤ̒è̘͖̊ļ̦̅ͬn̗͙͜͠i̵̗̱͒ u̯̰͛s̺̪ͤ͝n̴ͬ̒e̶ͥ͐͑ṟ̩͐̌̚e̥̔̋̉i̼ͦ̀ͅṁ͙͝t̵͊͒ạ̍ͦ̓t͓̕͟q̝̺̩ for imported nuts have intensified over the past few years, with an emphasis on e̲̅͜l͓̰̑ĺ͉̖͕̏h͔̍̊̄͘u͈̣̇̇ͯt̡̧̬ a̘͂ͯ̇̌s̘̔̈-r͍̾̂i̜͒̐l͕̯̐͑͜g̜͛̆̍̿n̦̩̓̀̍ ś̴̖̞r̲͖͑n͐ͯͮͯe̥̫͍̊ͤ which can be cracked locally. Additionally, with an increased proportion of imported nuts going e̶̥̼o̭̞̔͢͠ t̫̎̾͢s̢͙ͨ́n̵̡͖g͉̈́̾͑͜ǟ͕ iͧ̽ͬo̩̼̜̐ḽ̶ͯř̮̾c͕̝͐͜p͍̔̔͊͠o̖͉͐̓̚s̻̑̿̑l͏̧̛͉̤c͈̥̖͒, b̹̈́ͮ̑ͯs̑ͣ̏͏ͪs̱͇̎͞e̛̗͎ͪy̖̔ͤh̙̹̳ͩu͎̟ͣ͢ n̺̦̬͡C̽ͬ͡i̪͈̾ȩ̋ͬé͙̋̉̇ŗ̱ͮ will need a lower raw nut price to manage u̱̿̀m̼ͥ̂̅a͑̽ͦu̒̐͊r̛͔̎̿̀n̩̥̠cf̺̜ͥ͛ͩs͙̊ͤr̢̢͎̒ͪn̦̺ͤ͟t͙ͧͪa͉͐̚ i̮̝͉͑ġ̱̚͝n̫͓ͯͮa̛͆͏͚͕m͙̲̊i̼̰ͮ͡g̏̔͂̎̕.
• Supply from e̹̹̺d̪̒̈̿sȑ̫ͣ͗i̗͕ͪḯ͏͕͛͞e͕̲͍ͪ͒n̽ͯͨͭ̚ģ͒ͫ n̘͚͚̔̈́o̶ͯ͜f͕̮ͩͤi̺̺̍ͤf̵̢ͭͯ̓ṙ̝̓̕͞t̞ͮ͊̏̋ s͙͈ͨ̒̑ì͚̀̕͡ increasing, which offers buyers discount alternatives to traditional sources of nuts. Countries such as o̺̒̂e̘̘͠m͈ͨͧͣ͞m͈̔̌̂̒Z̜ͦ̿͠ǐ̢͖̜̍Z͈̽̊͟a̺̗̬, e̺̘͉̕a͔̽ͩ̂̀a̟̥̐̓͛q̨̦ͩM̀̈͆b̭̰ͯ̕, a̮̾͌b̹̥ͩͪ̈́n̪͎̮͌ͧz̞̟͌̀i̵̥͓ͮ͏m͚̻̌̈́â͇̽͞b̬̐ͫM̻̙̃ͨẃ̱͓͗̏ m̝̗͔̽̄u̷͚ͣ͢a̰ͦͭ ȃͭ̂̒͜ḇ̵͒̏͐i̵͇̱͛̚y̕͏͓̇n̦ͫ̂d̲̳ͭr are becoming notable suppliers of raw nuts. In addition, despite the t͇̔͜n̋ͥ̐́̕ó̴̩̮̠ i̟͑̈͞K̵͔̽̎͜ s̵̷̮C͔̄̾x̷̃̾͑ b̼ͯͦn̴̯ͪa̼͕͐̓â͍̆̆n͕ͫ̉ỳr͚͏̀̆ a̟ͦ͢ò̩͋͏̙ w̞̲̲͋y̮̬͈̘͖è̛͍̲͎a̰͚ͤͥ̕e̞̼̙̊, h̩͌̔͛np͒̐̒͂b̢ͩ͑r̭͙̐ continues to receive volumes of NIS from that country. Quality improvements from these new sources will make their supply more competitive.

As mentioned, the trajectory of the NIS market will impact the trajectory of the i̖̫̯̔t͙͛ͫ̏͑k̩̫̰͛n̵̹̮͌̓é̷̌r̷̹͚ e̗ͭ̈́eͩ̾̈r̦̉̊͡d͎͆̾̂̾m̥̂ͦe͉͖ͩ͢͜i̫͗ͩ́͠ǎ̹̹̬͒l̔̀́͠n̨̩̮ͤ̚ t̵͔̝ͪͭe̯͉̙͑̅k̬̖̓͌̑r̶̢͛͗g͙͊ͥ̉̇n̘̒̊͒. The next two months will bring a clearer picture.

Trade trends

The graphs below superimpose import volume and import value timelines for key macadamia nut markets for the past 20-months. The usefulness of this is to compare the up-and-down trajectories of the two line-graphs to get a picture of improving or worsening unit prices. Where value has a more intensive decline than volume, or where increases in value are lower than increases in volume, this suggests downward price pressure.

Trade figures for the Netherlands run a month behind other countries included below, all of which have published figures for the full 2025 year.

Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform

Prices Open for Negotiation

The MSM trading platform has kernel offers available from several countries. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.

We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.

Negotiable Single Style Offers Available

Style	Quantity (kg)	Containers	Avg Opening Price (USD/kg EXW)
Style 0	9 140	1	16.50 EXW
Style 1	70 091	6	15.47 EXW
Style 1S	4 105	2	14.38 EXW
Style 2	38 556	2	13.70 EXW
Style 4XL	16 330	1	10.50 EXW
Style 4L	73 951	4	10.18 EXW
Style 4S	62 631	4	9.85 EXW
Style 5	11 340	1	9.20 EXW
Style 6	19 278	2	6.40 EXW
Total	305 421	23	12.09 EXW

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