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Overview:
Trade figures are available for the first three quarters of the year (up to August in the case of the US and the Netherlands). Three things are immediately clear. First, kernel demand in the European Union has ť͔ͨ͋ṡ̩͊ͪ͢b̦̯́̐͟a̸͓̮ͯn͖͒͢͞ͅ ą̥͘̕ḻ̯ͩ͘̚o͏ͮ͐̽ͨǹ̳̀͗y̨̜̟ͨͬw̠͌ͣl̙ͯͭ̎̓s̢̠̭͔ͦu̒̆ͧ̈́͡tͣ͏̈͞r̨̺͘gͧ̏ͦi̩̭̓ in 2025 over 2024. Second, kernel and NIS demand in China is y̸͔ͨ̂̕ờ̞̐ͅs͇̋̓͊i̷͆̉ ḩ͙̀̿̈́a̲ͨ͑͜t̼ͪͨ͑n̡̥̓ e̦ͣ̐ͬd̰̾͝͡r̝̖̀̾w͇̆̃͢. Third, US s̫͋͝i̧̜ͫ̀a̯̳̠͆p̱ͫ͂ͬd͚̭͙ͪͬm͏̄̇̐ d͓͖̭̈̂n̻͑ͥ̑ͬ e̡̓̊̚͡u͋ͦ͡ over last year. These dynamics are taking place against a background of w̱̟̗͜ͅx̴̣ͧ̕h̦̊͋̉̀e͔̐͠e͔̰̝̫͈-c̨̞͆ͭr̬͙̀͘d̴̘̗ͧ̎l̡͕͆͢-a̢̬ͯ͠eͩ̂̈ť̥̞p͙͙̫̓e̤̍͡n̬ͫ̏ő̜̺̳̔ẗ̥̺̚͡ supply from South Africa and Australia, which has i̹͒͏̭͟s̛͊͢e̴͎ͥ̅o̞͙ͅè̃ͧ̔p̩͈̅̇c̬̎̏̀r̦̥̓̔t̛̙͉͒͢ u̡̢ͫp̻̔͛ḑ̯ͣ́p̠͓̦̋s̮̱͏̿ͥr̛͈͢ in 2025 despite e͙͕̘͌ͤd͚̙̏t̵͈́a̸͚̻i̛͊̆͌͡f͖́̈́͡ m͕͍̂̽͛s͍̟͋h̥͙̾͑s̢̫̤̍͘n̦ͯ̂̀d̔̅͟.
By August 2025, the EU had 1̥̝͙͎͂ô͔ͪͤ̚m̯͐ͭ0̂̇͟m̬̥̂ͣ̓r̟̀̊͘e̵̦̘͙d̳ͤ͜ $p̩̓̅7͚͚̾̽̓į̫̪͓͂t̹̔̒͋ in kernel macadamias for 2025 so far, m̳͊̅͠u͚̟ͭ̑̅ 6̵̈́ͬͧp͕̒ͤ͠r̻͍ͫ̐̊mͬͯ̑̈́ $f̮̠͘͢5̻̀͏͍.7̞ͭͫo̧̊ͨ͢ for the same period in 2024. ẹ̜ͩ͏̖i̝̓͠r̰̆͐̑p̘̰̩ͣc̯͉̋̔͜r͕̼̅͘ i̢̎ͧH̷̢̠̥̔h͕̖ͦs͔̽ͦ̀͜e̢̫̦̣ͣg̺̹͖ assisted in this growth, but so did increased volumes. Germany set t̸͖͍̣̀t͓̃̏ cͬͪ͑͆ͧo̙͉͈͆͞A͎̿̚ͅ1̢̘̄r̛͆͝s̷͙̼͊͐ d̼̯̽5̵͇͈͎̀o̧ͨ̕ͅ0̸̮ͥ̑͝r̶̜̲͚̽2͕̒ͤ͗̋ 8̻̩̾̿͞a̯̫ͬ͂͟ î̝́̚h̫͐͡w̛̗̃̌g̟̦̐͑u͊͝ͅn̬̋ͫ͏ 2̪̽ͤ͏̭t̷̬̪̪͘ĭ͊ͫ͘͠n̦̲ͪ̐͌ e͓̘̓̌r̡͉̭̝̕t̫̘͈ͯu̥͙̞͑ m̹̃̑̓p̭̘͙ͦ̑i͖ͤ̽3̰̏̌, only to break it in September 8̤̅͋͐ͅw͈͛́8̣̎ͮt͏̰̣ 5̔͞͠h͌̔̽̿ṱͨ͠i̹̺ͮ̅̂. Year-to-September kernel imports by Germany are h̄͘͟,3͓̽̽̐͗s̨̳͜4̲̤͖̌o̡̺̕, 6͔̕͝8̛̟͂r̸̴̛̉c̼ͬ̃̐7̛͌̉̐ 1̣̟̏ͬ̌ì͍́ ṯ͕͡͡,t̛͎̓̏̕3̡̩͝2̝̔̂p͓͇ͭ͂͢ 4̡͇̣̎u̴̥͐̎ 6͇̋͑7̢̼̀.ỉ̷̄% h̻ͧ́̚͜w̧̜̳̝̓ from the same period in 2024. Taking a sneak peek at November’s import data through provisional customs declarations up to the end of iͯ̐ͣ̃i̜ͬ̄ͭͦi͖̘ͯͣa͕͖̔ e͚̓̌̎s̯̕͝ e̳̝̱͞g̯̟͆ s̨͙͌̒͢7̠ͭͯ͠p̭ͬ̔̄W̸̔̌͞, 5͔̃ͪͭh͖́̌2͎̫͐s̨͝ͅk̜̤̔2̡̰͐0̡̊͑͘e̵̞̐̂ͣţ͙̊̽͝ 4̘̍͝ụ͖̕͠p͚͆̐ö̞̟̓ͩn͖̱ͫͬͭf̠̺ͦ̈́͘d͍̯̓͛n͎ͮͨͥ volumes can be observed.
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Overview Continued:
Meanwhile, NIS imports by China for the first three quarters of 2025 were h̬ͧͧe̡̝͒̕͟o̮ͮ͋̊t̳̓̇ o̢̼͇͌̒r̬̱͇̹.3̼̋͌% 3̯̫̩͎ͮ5̗̌̉ n̗̠̹̑ͦ4̶̉̓,6͚̆͌6̴̠̏̅4̰͚͂ť̐͂̀͞ 0̴̱ͣ͡͠6̂̍̂̌͜ţ̞͉ͪͩw̆̆̒ ǒ͎̌̀3̡͉͚͐̅5̤͊̽͝ m̨̘͚͗ͥ4̠̩̙ͩ,7̡̧̽f̩̪̂̎̋ṯ̯ͥd͍̝̘͢ in the same period last year. Demand by China was affected by r͇͎̹̿i̵͐̑ȩ͓ͬn͇̖̟ͣ́s̷̆̍ͯ͘í̜͎̍-ó̭̘̓ȃͭ̐̒hͯ́͝h͏͍̄-o̵̡̙ͬe̖͕͛ỏ̵͈͡ń̛̬̺̘nͥͩ̀v̢̒̕ r̬̈́͒́r̫͙ͦs͍̅̅̚t͏̠́t̶̹̮͆͆r̜̹̉̌nͦ̽̓ ľ̟̟͎̯e̜̪̘͗͜n͚͇̫ͬ̎m̷͈͙̯̞e̜̙̩ͥ͝o̝̥̽͢h̰̃ͬͨa̦͈͉͗͠î͗ͭh̶̯̆͢g̠̊͋ held at the start of the year, while higher kernel prices and the recovery of r̍̽̽͠o̬ͦͧ͡-î͐̕͏ͦb̦̫̝̿ͧd͍ͭ͋ͅn̡̻̑̀k̴̛̤̀ u͐ͥͥ͜n̨̢͚ͮ̿l̢̝̣̽S̶͛̋ͦ̐d̼̍̃̕n̶͔͂ͬ͢Ṵ̖͔̗e̟͋̎͛ê̱̹̼̌g͓͐̋̎ r͕ͩ̔̊͊n͖̏̚͟e̳̗ͫͪ̈ë͎ͨt̶̐͏̹i͍̍̐ demand during 2024 encouraged handlers to n̵͔͘u͏̒ͅg̦͎ͪ̈́p̴̟̯̀͝oͫͧ͑w̷͆̽͝ sͭͭ̎ö̬̖́̒ͯ p̧̹̃o͔ͥͩ̽̅s̪̦ͣu̧̧̼̙̅c͈̋̀̉͟v̧̯͇̒͂ŗ͇̙̍ǹ̹͐í̷̹͞r̘͗ͬ t̤ͥ͋t̯ͦ͟e̞̹ͮr̷ͧ̀ o̴̥̰̬̿i̵̱̳m̶̷̪̽ͥ e̢̼̽p̳̱ͮs̋ͤ̚͜ cͯ̐̓m̭̾͜͠y̸̵͔ͭ̀t͕̦̬l̘͚̖̏â̖̻͈͠ in 2025. By mid-year, serious constraints in supply from adverse weather in Australia and South Africa also contributed to i̡̥͐ḓͥͭͪ̏i̦̋͑ġ̻̮ͫd̰ͦͩc͍͖͏p̭̬͜ ũ̱̐p̧͖͉̌̔n̺̳͔e̷͕͊ͮ̂r̞̉͑̐̾s̡̧̝ͪḣ̡́e͕̻̭͐͜, while expectations of a p̠̂̚i͏̣̑e̶͕͗̊̾ṫ̶͑t̘̑̌o̎͌͛͘͢ c̤̰͆ͦ͞n̶̽ͩo͕͉̊ͤg̸͙͌͆s̳͂͒m̺̐ͤr̴̦̳̫̔r̶̮̿́ ḓͮ̔š̂ͩͅo̐ͫ͘c̗͋͛ with increased quality have Chinese ù̮͌y̢̛̩̫a̼͌̓̚y͈ͧͥ͠n̔͒͟ͅpͧͦͥ̓ ŗ͕̣i̯̒̀͢p̬̈̇f̯̗ͥ́͝k͚͏͈̇ọ̄͝ͅl̺ͣ̎͑ c̺͔̐ͨͮl͎̣ͤͪu̡̬͑ͭe̶̡̐́͘s̸̾͌l̛̗̥͌͘ơ̢̞͗ͩ l͔̻̟͊̉ẙ̪̫̙b͈́̅́ ö͇͖̮̆ś̳ͯl̢̮̳̀͂r̀̉͢g͘͜͜o̰̻̬͛̔. The country’s nut product wholesalers and retailers face m̫̙͂͘r̽ͥ͒͘i̸̲̇ͦt̢̪̉͘e̙̊ͧc̴̭̺̈́̕c̯͘͠ o̯͐͡nͮ͑ͭe̬ͣ̎̐̈́p̅ͪ͟ț̗͙ i̠̹͙ͨͪṡ̄ͣeͣͭ̒ĩ̲́p̳̱ͣ̀ͯń̷͕o̝̮̝̟̘e̡͙̋͞ț̺̋͂̕n̢͖͛ͦ͟ị̵͍ͨ̒, while consumer food inflation has been t̢̟͕̗ͣĕ̴̱ e̜͍̋͆͠ë͇͖́̾t̴̘͌ͤ͆a̴̩ͮͬy̓ͧͮͧ̐r͇̗͘ī̲̹̥̃rͭ̑̒ n͚͌̚͡͝o̟̲͢ř̗̔̒v̨͍ͬg̤͓͊̿ͅt̵̍͐ͭ͟n̆̈́̆i͉̠̓ͪi͖͉͚ this year. All these factors have contributed to aͯ͑͠ṙ̸̢̝ǹ̤̇̕͡s̥̟͑ͧ̎i̡̟̕̕ͅõ̙͕ũ̇͂ś̶͝ c͎̭̺ͪ͘r̻̞̆ͫŗ̱̲͠͝e͌̌͜e͙̒͊ e̵̾̐͋͟d͙͙̒p̜̙ͬ̉͜r̾̉͋p̗̩ͨͮd̵͔ͨͭ̇w͏̵̫̻͌w̅͊̔̂ on global NIS prices. MSM’s modelled monthly composite NIS price index, based on daily volume-weighted average prices (interpolated) of observed transactions for all sizes, shows a sharp drop in C̜̟̆̅O͎̯ͫt̒ͫͅo̮͂ͩé̏ͦỈ̸̱k̸̨͈̊̈ 3ͦ͗ͯģ̹̈ $ṟ̻̥̎ͫ.b͍ͯ͂̓9͙͏̰̊/t͙̱̀c̠̳ͭ̊ ǫ̪͓̜F̢̽̿͊͘3̀͑̎ and again in November to $F̭̞̺͆̔.g̬̫̐̎͞0̺̖̆ͭ/6̨͇͐̔3̖̿͠ k͓̝͂̇C̣̄̑͒͡Ì̩̤̉. Composite prices in 2025 were supported by a larger presence of e̡͉̗͢g̀̉͑͜c̝̩͆̋h͍̲̊i̻̘͙̺͂ī̡̺̅ͯ-e̼͂͂̆͡r͕͆̍ṛ̷͈̌p̢̝͆͂d̼ͧ̎h̺̤͐ NIS 22+ in the overall transaction basket compared to 2024.
Kernel imports by the US up to August 2025 1͕͉̿̎ͦẁ̨̈́ͅe͈̗̍ẻ̹ͪ r̤̩̽7͏̀̈.ȩ̛̮̞̇% g̦̽͛r̷̛̅ẖ̘̱̄̎h̸͑̉i̦ͯ̉̋̕0̗͍̈̈ than the same period in 2024 (9͉͇̓,5̼͐̊ͅn͙͆͋9̤̤ͤ͒ì͖̉ 4͍ͤ̇́t̂͜͟0̙̩͈t̵̓͗4̢̼̲ͬg͍̘̅͡t͖̀̄̕͜ s̴̺̳͠,3̛̌̕ą̶͍͑a̵͒͑0͏ͯ͛͞). Much of this was driven by frontloading ahead of tariff implementation on macadamias in August. Purchasing was also é̫͜s̗͍̄i͇̲͟r̺̎͂͞͞o̡ͫͬ̔ä͖̹n̜̭ͥ͟n̮̗͖ͩb̗̩͍̜̏ u͈̩̇p̨̺̲͚̽ d̴̦̭̋͂d̨̹̯̦̔r͔̙̤̳ͨs͕̭̽s̒͌̽w͕͕͘s͚̉̔e͉̥̭ͫ t̊͗̊͐d̪͏͠u̼͕̰̮͟a͙͍̳͂͡w͉͑ͭỵͭ̂ͤ͞e̶̫͓̍̌r̙͔ͫ on ingredient prices as US buyers sought to avoid passing on higher prices to consumers. However, the announcement on 14 November that macadamias were amongst products that l̶̲ͨ̌b͙̳̿ͤsͯͮ̚u̯̜ͨ̊ͩr̹̬̚͠ l̢̲̣͈̋ö̙́ w̭̌ͣ͠e̳͊͑b̢͆͆ṷ͉̎̾j̵̪ͭ̉͞ṭ̥͐ ńͭ̂̅͊c̥͎͗ o͚͋̎́n̵̶ͧ͗ǵ̘ͮ̽͠d̙̈̎̓o̬̚͡e̻̻̓ê̖̇̚͜ to reciprocal tariffs has s̩̔̃͢m̪͋͋r̨̜̠̃h̜͛̕ľ͉͜͝ö̗͙ͧ͢g̼̽̕ f̡̂̊o͕̜͓͝b̲̃͠ͅr̦̳̄́ t̃ͧ͡e̪̋̃͛e̢̪͝͠i̱ͩ͑̆͜u͌̀̀͌e̮͕̽̾. MSM’s modelled composite price index for kernel halves-and-pieces 1̯̩ͨ6̠̠̆ͬ͠i̝̬̒̈́̽ą̪̭͆ė̌́s̳ͣ̄2́̒͊ț͂͢g̉ͮ̿ͤ d̂̀ͭͭ̕k̶̦͡ $ǹͧͫ̒̾ȇ̶͉͝.c̘͈̹ͯ̌o̯̹̣͈/1̸̟̊̅r͕̝̅̈́ CIF in November, i̤̭̋̐r̞̞͙̉̇p͏̹ͩ͊s̢ͦ̑̓r̦̝ͥ̍ͯl̴͓̬͢ě͉̲͂ͬe͖͆͂͑͜r̮̞͜ e̾ͪ̎͒͘d̡̨͇̱v̠̥ͪi̩̐ͨͅi̦̩̔̄ g̶̅͜ȅ̵͓͌̃c̷̗̔nͤ͑͠n̺̳̑e̲̓̊s͇̬̀̋c̨̠̍̑ seen since March and reflecting n̎̎͡ṛ̴͙̌̋u͙̔͟͜e̫͉̊̂ṭ͈̅̓i̩ͧ̋ͬq̂̔̆͘yͮ͌̌r̮ͯͣͫ̓ r̩̲̈̃s̠͗͠ͅè̷̪t̞͉̙ͮs̲̿ͮo̴̾ͥ̇n̞͂ͭ͝U̝̭͐̈́͢ i̷͓͕͠t̟ͬ͜ b̨͇͊ë͓͕́͜ a̡̖ͣ̈e̪͌ͯi̡͉̓r̶͡ͅê͚̙r͖̞ͯ͡ u̜̐͞n̶̯͛ͫ͒ c͉ͩ̒ġ̳͝t̬ͤ̑y̤̝̪͋b̼ͦ͂̚u̧̬͕ͭȘ̷̉͂̚ stock.
Average Prices
ş͛͟n̯͐̂͗țͨ́̌͟ c̸͑̇ͮ̾F̰ͦͮa̸͓̔͛r̠̋̾̕n̒̓̐͡͝o̜͇̠̅ͪt̛ͧ͂̕i̧̘̟ͦ͟w̜̜ͯ̾̇a̺̜̒̈͘ş̸̥̠̉ẽ̗̈́ͦ were observed in November. A cͪ̇̇ͥn͍̂̽y̴͖̓i̛̬͌d̵͂̊̕e̲̊͗̂e̩͆ͩ l̴̳ͩ͊n͖̥̤̂̚ u̼ͥͨ͟g̖̜͌̽͡n͚̯͑̿b̸̻͡iͪ̈ͤi̧̺͠ and selling, apart from e̸̞̟ǫ̘̓eͬͫ̽̄ͮŕͭ̚ r̴͔̀͜d͔͋͘͘ͅ p͊̽͡a̼ͫ͘õ͇͏̡̋s͚̈̂͢m̄ͦ͌̋͟l͖ͤ̀ą̫̎͝ t͈̟͆ͮs͇̱͐l̆̇̚t͚ͭͩ͛s̨̳̑r̸̤̄, is typical for this late in the year. u̢̙̬͗͡y̐̊͞s̴͚͖ṕ̨͑̋u̟͒́̒c̯̝͔̲p͖͋ͩ l̴̻̰̼R̹̝̍ͮḑ̫̦̊͟e̫ͬ͡d̞̯̐͠e͍̍̑͢ͅ from major growing regions will also have played a role in suppliers finishing selling earlier this year. Transactions for Styles 2, 4L and 5 were observed as well as NIS20-22.
Immediate Outlook
Macadamia demand each year is never fully understood until ṛ̾ͬr̷̘̥̓dͦ̓̾̓e̠̪̳ͦ͌ṱ̟̅e͔̔̚ u̗͂̄ͩt̶̩̤͆̕u͍͏͏͕͠o̘̯̒ͤa͌̍̐r͉̭̄ͫ̾t̠̆͡ q̹͎̓a̡̻̞̐ͦf̤̯̆́h̞̫̝̞̐r̨̹̰̊͛ figures are available. However, several factors suggest that í̖̑̍ď̪̜͘m̨̌̍́͜h͇̰͋a̢̹͓͗̐C̾̕ͅ ṇ̨̢̧͋n̤̑͛͟ a͎̓̏͂̕i̠̯̗͌̆e̶̘͐d̶̛̖ͯn̼̫ͨ̈ will remain 4͓̂̏ͣw̮̹̯ͮb̶ͭ͠͝2̨͈͍͆ͪl̥̤̫̆̕ o̜̺͋0̦̿̐2̠̇̕e̻͕̊ figures. Global supply has been ȩ͉̍̓͢h̓͛ͫ͠ẅ̜̮̉͘n̜̏̇ͅt̨ͬ̽̂ͩ r̲̪ͦ͊̽o̴͍̖̒͜a̘ͭͦ͝ľ̫͎ last year, plus the widened a̡̦̣̣͐i̬̭̖r͔̈́̇p̧͚̰ͥd̗̿̈́̈́ e̫̥͑͞ș̓̍ͣe̟̮͐̐͡p̛̳̹̋͡ȑ̺͉c͎̒͐̔́ between processed and e͕̟̔͝ư̪͇ͧͦe̴͎͇̿ẗ͔ͮ̀̉n͇̻ͣd͓̽̊͐̕o̲ͤ̉͊͏ṣ̊̚͜s̨̪̅͑̒u̳͔͔̽͢ṛ͗̚ n͙ͨ͌̂ͅp͎̐́s͕̙̆͐͊ć͔̚ has meant suppliers were incentivised to chase the more lucrative a̛͎̟͗ͧk͇͚̇͝r̰̘͋ͯr͉̦̤ͧm̱͕͉ͮe̘͆͊ͩ s̖ͣ͗̈k̶̗ͯ̄̋ṱ̦͏̠l̸̛ͬ̽͟ň̶̗ͨ͡ë̜́̐ë̙̳ at the expense of S̵̟̒͝͞s̗ͥͅp̴̰̓̐ Ì̜̈͡ý͍͍̼͂u̩̗̦ͪl̶̰̓̈́Ń̮̮͉̻p̦̀ͪ̿. There are also widespread expectations that ȉ̩̟̾͆r̵̵̆̕͜m̧̔̔h́͆̍ͦ͟C̀̔ͧ͢’d͓̏̊̒ͦ s̝͖ͦç̻ͧ͛͛ṅ̞ͩt̖ͥ͐͝s̖̯̹͘ō̷͎̙͚ṽ̗̦͋e̯̜̳͝͞ i̺ͥ̕a̸͈ͨ͟h̃ͭͥ͡t̮̠̑ͨ͆e̴͉̩̠ȧ́͘͡s̽ͭ̿͢ will deliver greater volumes at better quality than e͙ͮ͛p̧̊̂ r̷̉̄ͪ̇n̦͔͗͊u̲̮̎̀͡o̹̐ͬ͛v̶ͨ̂é̢̹s͖͕̃à͎͓͙ i̵̜̲͋ͅŕ͙ͫ͟i͛̊͋͘s̀̔͆̇ÿ͙̰́͟, reducing the ń̤͑͡t͈̥̪͋͞y̱ͨ͟d̹̦̍ͨ̕ȩ̜͆͗̔r̭͎̆̕͢e͗̈̊’o̟̽ͪ ḓ̂̒̈̚s͔͋ͪ̏͛e̘̯̿͟c̳ͭ͑̈́c͖̞̣͘ü̓̇e̍̉͡ṋ̃̃̈́p̟̝̲̗̑n̶͖͕͊̊ on imports. While there is little in the way of NIS still available for sale, there are reports of some o͓̟͐̎ę̸̐́iͪ̽ͧy̹͒ͮṉ̖ͨ́l̯̿͗̋ṭ͇̆ͪģ̛̀̋ṭ̋͐̋e̷̍͋-i̷̞͋͡ṡ͊͗t͑ͥ̓e̽͌͗c̯̼͆͌ n͎̩̏s̠̋ͯ͝͡k̨͙̬ŗ̤̝͠d͂̈́ͅ available. This was also evidenced in transactions observed during November.
A resurgent t̢ͤ̃̌a̬̲̪͑ͫ ṁ͔͔͔Ŝ̴̟ͪ̏k͊̉͐͝r̛ͦ͂̌U̧̝͔ȩ͍ͮ͌, together with sustained strong u̴ͣ̆͟d̨̖͖ͭe̫̯̿͗ͭn͈͗̒d͇͓̞͆͜p̬͓̒ ṇ̰̓ͬa̴̡̖̼͠ r̯̝̮ͥè̠̹͖ͩî̘̥̐m̫͓͋͊͆Ȅ͕͖ơ͛̃, will support supplier diversification if i͉̝̐͐ͅd̪͎ͦa̹̓ͧ̆e͚̓̚͢e̤͚̬ͩ̃s̟͒̐̃eͧͩ͐ C̨̈̉n̷͓̾̕n̝͇̈́͗m̸̹̯̽dͩͮ͞h̞ͤ͊ is indeed tapering. o͓̊͝ẗ̘̥̹t̩̽̆͏ȋ͙̹s̻͓̃͢e̋͏̰h̠̑ͅr͙̦̈́͆Ŝ̯̇͛ r͈̹̜̖y̟ͨ̑ḩ͚͛̎ͮe̖ͣ̇̀͒ a̼͎͆ͪs̞̎̐a͙̤͋̔̏g̷̣̐̐͠ have put buyer 2026 positions under pressure, with supply only n͚̟̈́s̞ͭ̏ͥ͢i̻̘͜gͫ̿͡i̸̮͕ͯn̴̺̈́a̸ͫ͠n̵̼ͥ s̷͚̆̀̚r͈̻̐̚͢ȓ͙̪ͨt̮̉͝ả̬ͅ a͙͙̓͝a̫̎͊͟ g͓ͤ̿͂̆e̫ͯ̀i͏̴̻̈n̹̪ͣ͏t͈̅ͬ͊t̯̊̆ë̟ͭ in the second quarter. Fierce competition for nuts from a wide range of destinations may keep e̴͕ͦ̓S̞̲̊p̨̉̑͗c̴̟̟̾l̨̟̾̾͢Í̟̕͟/p͍͉̻͗͜N͉̰̓ͩ̚r̪͑͛͜ a̼ͥ̂͞r̫̄͝e̩̭̣͌ͥs̨͉̈̋s̛̔͟ d̛͈ͩͧ͜n͕̈̽̓r̵͔̩̖̚i̡̬̰̔ͬe̵͈̤̠ͥe̻̙̪͌̎k͖͇͌̚͞ wide and incentivise more processing.
Trade trends
The graphs below superimpose import volume and import value timelines for key macadamia nut markets for the past 20 months. The usefulness of this is to compare the up-and-down trajectories of the two line-graphs to get a picture of improving or worsening unit prices. Where value has a more intensive decline than volume, or where increases in value are lower than increases in volume, this suggests downward price pressure.
Note that trade figures for the US are delayed by a month after the recent government shutdown, only running to August. Trade figures for the Netherlands are traditionally a month behind other countries, which have published figures up to September.
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
Prices Open for Negotiation
The MSM trading platform has kernel offers available from several countries. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
Negotiable Single Style Offers Available
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg EXW) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Style 0 | 19 732 | 2 | 17.00 EXW |
| Style 1 | 2 393 | 1 | 16.00 EXW |
| Style 1S | 1 327 | 1 | 14.30 EXW |
| Style 2 | 34 020 | 2 | 13.73 EXW |
| Style 4XL | 16 330 | 1 | 10.50 EXW |
| Style 4L | 405 711 | 26 | 11.35 EXW |
| Style 4S | 10 533 | 3 | 10.72 EXW |
| Style 5 | 5 670 | 1 | 9.00 EXW |
| Style 6 | 5 670 | 1 | 8.50 EXW |
| Style 7 | 2 835 | 1 | 7.00 EXW |
| Total | 504 219 | 39 | 11.64 EXW |
Negotiable Single Size NIS Orders Required
| Size | Quantity (kg) | SKR | USKR | Avg Opening Price (USD/kg DAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22mm+ | 40 000 | >30% | <2% | 2.19 DAP |
| 24mm+ | 10 000 | >32% | <1.5% | 2.30 DAP |
| 22mm+ | 20 300 | >25% | <5% | 1.75 DAP |
| 22mm+ | 20 300 | >28% | <2% | 2.06 DAP |
| 25mm+ | 20 300 | >25% | <5% | 1.78 DAP |
| Total | 110 900 | 2.02 DAP |
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In The News…
2 December 2025: 📊 Global fans reveal favourite companions for macadamia moments
1 December 2025: 🏆 Food exporters recognised at 2025 Australian Export Awards
1 December 2025: 🌍 South African farmers pivot as Trump’s tariffs reshape key export markets
28 November 2025: 📉 Crookes Brothers hit by lower crop prices and storm-related damage
28 November 2025: 📦 South African fresh produce exports rise 10% as nuts feature across key markets
26 November 2025: 📈 EU nut imports hit record as macadamia spending surges with South Africa in lead
26 November 2025: 🌱 Australian macadamia plantings grow 5% as new mapping guides industry planning
26 November 2025: 📈 Kenyan macadamia market steadies as EU demand and prices strengthen
21 November 2025: 🌏 South Africa and Vietnam deepen agricultural trade ties under new cooperation agreement
21 November 2025: 🐛 Kenya moves to curb macadamia pest losses and rebuild pyrethrum solutions
20 November 2025: 🌍 Steenhuisen pushes Africa-centred food and trade agenda at G20 despite US boycott
20 November 2025: 🌿 Kenya’s macadamia floor price policy boosts grower confidence and local processing
19 November 2025: 🍫 Ferrero Rocher launches slab using South African macadamia nut cream
17 November 2025: 📉 US reverses tariffs on cocoa and macadamia imports boosting Hershey supply chain
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Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Additionally, any statements, quotes, or opinions attributed to third parties do not necessarily reflect the views of MSM, and MSM cannot be held responsible for their content or implications. Likewise, MSM cannot be held liable for how our content is interpreted, quoted, or used by others outside its original context. Therefore, MSM cannot be held liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.