Foreword
Dear readers,
Once the Chinese New Year passes at the end of this month, the world’s macadamia buyers will be focused on restocking for the 2025 trading cycle ahead. Buyers and suppliers seek optimal price and volume commitments ahead of southern hemisphere production, which will begin shipping in the end of the second quarter. Ears and eyes will be alert for news of early agreements from first movers, for what the chatter at conferences or industry gatherings is, and for what some early enquiries look like. For companies without resources for intensive data collection during this period in a market that lacks transparency, this can be a stressful and anxious time. With global economic uncertainties prevailing and only very early crop estimates to go on, what is the optimal price to sell at? What volumes should be committed in early contracts? At what level should buyers be pitching enquiries? Which way will the market pitch later in the year?
The MSM trading platform is ideal for periods such as this. It allows for greater transparency in price discovery, where offers and bids can be placed, monitored and responded to.
Early market signalling is supported by smart contracts and quality assurance of traded stock through the platform’s associated services. At the same time as it reduces transaction risks, the platform also reduces transaction costs. It puts all players on a stronger footing, allowing them to assess and manage risks, develop cost scenarios, and plan the year. The stability provided is not only good for participating suppliers and buyers, but it also puts the entire industry on a more stable path; one that fosters innovation and demand in downstream manufactured food, health, and cosmetic products where macadamias are ingredients. Contact us to discuss how the MSM trading platform can support your business to become part of the evolution in macadamia trading.
We trust all delegates to the annual Peanut and Tree Nut Processors Association Convention are enjoying productive sessions and engagements, and we wish them safe travels home.
Macadamia Price Trends
While NIS trading is expected to pick up from February and March after the Chinese New Year passes, there have been some kernel trades observed during January. Kernel exporters will be keen to see early gains in kernel prices to attract producer stock away from NIS exports to China, which remains a competitive option for direct marketers. At least one European wholesaler has cautioned that upward kernel price movements in the first quarter may affect early commitments that buyers are prepared to make.
The graph below compares average prices in observed transactions in the most recent five week period (Week 52 of 2024 to Week 3 of 2025) against the previous five week period (Weeks 47 to 51 of 2024).
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
The MSM trading platform has Kenyan-origin kernel offers available. These offerings are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
| Single Style Offers from Kenya Available on the MSM Trading Platform | ||
| Style | Containers | Quantity (kg) |
| Style 1 | 3 | 51 030 |
| Style 1S | 3 | 51 030 |
| Style 4L | 1 | 17 010 |
| Style 4S | 3 | 51 030 |
| Mixed Style Offers from Kenya Available on the MSM Trading Platform | ||
| Style | Containers | Quantity (kg) |
| 16% Style 1S, 84% Style 4L | 1 | 17 010 |
| 8% Style 0, 48% Style 1L, 44% Style 1S | 1 | 17 010 |
| 12% Style 4L, 80% Style 4S, 8% Style 5 | 1 | 17 010 |
| 1% Style 0, 31% Style 1L, 20% Style 1S, 12% Style 4L, 35% Style 4S, 1% Style 5 | 1 | 17 010 |
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Market Sentiment
Macadamia farmers have experienced four difficult years under price drops, supply disruptions, rising input costs, and extreme weather events. Despite this, both South Africa and Australia recorded growth in production while the value of exports in 2024 (to October) surpassed what was achieved in 2023. Both countries are expected to have good crop years with good availability of water through summer rains and healthy dam levels after La Nina weather conditions have finally kicked in. In South Africa, the suspension of power cuts means farmers begin the year with energy security, critical to irrigation. There are some reports that South African supply may increase as much as 10% in 2025. Margins for both major producing zones will continue to be thinned by production costs, which have elevated in recent years. The cost pressure comes on top of a disappointing recovery in NIS prices during 2024. This means that yield and quality are of utmost importance in the growing year ahead.
There are reports from Kenya that government agencies have been slow to process certifications for NIS exports despite the ban on such exports not yet being reinstated. What happens in Kenya in the first quarter will compound or relieve the sense of shortages in the global market. Meanwhile, perceptions of supply shortages have been balanced with recent news from multiple sources that Chinese traders still have some NIS inventory from last year’s procurement (reportedly of Chinese and Kenyan origin) and are moving it through discounted prices this month.
Farmers, especially direct marketers, will be seeking continued recovery in NIS prices in the hope of restoring fortunes for themselves. However, if there is inventory left over after the high consumption Chinese New Year period, this may slow buyer demand in the early stages of this year.
On the kernel front, the year looks set to at least retain price levels, if not see them rise further. Traders in the United Kingdom and the EU note particularly that demand for Styles 1, 2, and 4L remains high. This will incentivise handlers to commit increasing proportions of product received from growers to kernel production. A key factor influencing prices, however, will be the restoration of consumer confidence in major consumption markets. Between 2021 and 2022, consumer confidence nosedived in the United States although there has been some recovery since then. Consumer confidence in China also fell off a cliff in early 2022 and has remained in contractionary territory since then as the economy battles disinflation and weak consumer demand. EU consumer confidence has typically been low for a long time but has also declined further since 2022. It is currently nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Low consumer confidence, especially of the nature seen in these key markets, suggests consumers are reducing discretionary spending to focus on essential spending, discount-hunting, and savings as they have concern over the future direction of the economy. Price sensitivity for premium products like shelled macadamias may intensify under prevailing consumer sentiment unless these major economies respond to stimulus measures being implemented by fiscal and monetary authorities.
In The News…
16 January 2025: [Zimbabwe] New technology to boost Ariston macadamia earnings.
15 January 2025: [Germany] Macadamias: looking ahead.
15 January 2025: Chelmer Foods Macadamias Market Report.
15 January 2025: China is scouring the globe in search of new food suppliers .
14 January 2025: [Kenya] Sasini PLC reports US$4.3M loss in 2024 amid rising costs.
12 January 2025: [Vietnam] Macadamia provides new direction for Dien Bien’s agriculture sector.
December 2024: Ofi Nuts Market December Report.
What does MSM Offer You?
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Stratamarkets
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Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.