Foreword
Dear readers,
Having experienced recovery during 2024, the macadamia industry is poised for a good year ahead. But what does the market see as a good price in the season ahead? What volumes will be demanded, and which styles and sizes are sought? These questions are very difficult to answer in an industry where deals are secured through private contract. A custom-built macadamia trading platform not only brings visibility to market dynamics and provides early opportunity for market signals to be responded to, but it also improves trade efficiency through better coordination along the value chain. This is needed more than ever before if the macadamia industry is to seize on opportunities in an uncertain year.
The platform is designed to facilitate the trade of both NIS and processed macadamias, standardising product sold to enable trade financing and vendor-managed inventory.
This supports sellers and buyers alike, ensuring lower transaction costs, greater planning and more effective market timing.
Start your year off right by contacting us to see how the MSM trading platform can benefit your business.
Macadamia Price Trends
No trading was observed during December as suppliers focused on fulfilling Christmas and Chinese New Year orders. Average November prices in observed transactions are reproduced here below. Shipping typically spikes towards the end of the fourth quarter each year, declining after January the following year. Order fulfilment picks up again in the second quarter after a brief period of early contract negotiations. This period can affect pricing depending on the nature of early commitments made.
Market Sentiment
Suppliers start the year on a stronger footing this year in a market characterised by shortages, especially in the kernel market. With uncertainty in Kenya around the legal status of regulations managing the flow of macadamias to the market, it is not clear if the country may provide significant stock in the first quarter or not. The world’s buyers could be left waiting until late in the second quarter for kernel demand to be satisfied. This is a very different scenario to the start of 2024 which saw the market characterised by surpluses while suppliers were cash-strapped and eager to make early commitments.
Many processors are considering increasing the proportion of kernels in their output mix this year to take advantage of rising prices. The widening kernel-NIS price spread will also incentivise this move. However, high kernel prices are likely to attract additional supply which could temper further price increases. Increasing demand for macadamia kernels at rising prices during 2024 was underpinned by a surge in food and beauty product innovation using macadamias as ingredients and healthy snacking—a surge in downstream markets that was enabled through price drops in 2022 and 2023. Price sensitivity of these developing markets will be a factor in wholesale price setting in 2025.
This is especially the case with the expected economic slowdown in key consumer markets, such as the United States, Europe and China. While the US economy appears to be responding better to stimulus efforts and may experience a softer decline in the year ahead, the European and Chinese economies are still facing difficulty. Low growth remains in the European Union despite interest rate drops while debt is a concern among some member states. The Chinese economy is battling deflationary trends, declining growth and a property market debt crisis. The malaise is affecting consumer confidence in both economic zones, leading to lower spending. Meanwhile, the threat of a new tariff war sparked by the U.S. Trump administration may add to economic pressure.
The upshot is key consumer markets may not be able to support strong rises in commodity prices in 2025. China’s economic pressures could also affect NIS pricing, especially since a greater proportion of imported NIS is set for domestic processing in China. This requires a careful approach by suppliers in price offers and the critical need to see and understand demand signals from the market.
In The News…
3 January 2025: Mozambique boosts macadamia and lychee exports with growing international demand.
2 January 2025: [Mozambique] Macadamia production reaches 5,000 tonnes
29 December 2024: Kenya’s Expanding List of Price-Controlled Commodities Raises Economic Concerns.
29 December 2024: [Kenya] Embu farmer files petition against State’s macadamia export ban.
24 December 2024: [Vietnam] Macadamia and durian to be grown in Champassak for export.
23 December 2024: Macadamia Prices Expected to Recover for Hawaii Growers.
19 December 2024: Australian macadamia crop finishes strongly despite adverse weather conditions.
18 December 2024: Australian Macadamias Yearbook 2024 available for download.
18 December 2024: [Australia] Macadamia innovations: The most noteworthy products of 2024.
17 December 2024: [Zimbabwe] Bearing fruit: Avocado boom drives Tanganda’s return to profit.
11 December 2024: Making sense of prospects for a complex 2025.
9 December 2024: [Australia] Macadamias: much better than expected.
9 December 2024: [South Africa] KZN expands macadamia exports.
5 December 2024: Kenya temporarily lifts raw macadamia export ban to clear existing stock.
5 December 2024: Chelmer Foods Macadamia Market Update.
4 December 2024: [Kenya] Govt Directs Farmers to Sell Macadamia Nuts Within 30 Days.
December 2024: Australian agricultural outlook 2025. (Mac-relevant info on pages 18-22).
28 November 2024: [Kenya] Kakuzi hosts World Macadamia Organisation CEO, Jillian Laing.
27 November 2024: [Kenya] Kakuzi forecasts over 25% drop in annual net earnings
25 November 2024: [Tanzania] TAHA crowns macadamia as future crop jewel.
Undated 2013 – 2023: Australia Macadamia Society Production figures, 2013 to 2023.
What does MSM Offer You?
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Stratamarkets
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Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.