Foreword
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Last week we announced some important changes to the distribution of our market reviews. We are elevating our market intelligence efforts to better support platform participants with enhanced market information and are going to intensify research to deliver more comprehensive data, statistics and trend analysis. MSM will therefore be restricting the free circulation of these market reports to buyers and sellers who are registered to trade on the platform from April 2025.
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You’ll notice some new elements to this weekly report, the start of improvements we’re making. In April, we’ll also make available our 2024 review and prospects for the macadamia market to all those registered on the platform, either as buyers, sellers or subscription members. Register now and don’t miss out on the opportunity for continued market insights to support your business. Provided free of charge for buyers and sellers and at a low cost for market observers.
Macadamia Price Trends
The graphs below compare the most recent five-week period of 2025 (Weeks 8 to 12) with the previous five-week period (Weeks 3 to 7). Kernel prices climbed slightly on average, sustaining their levels between the two periods under review. There have been some recent NIS trades observed despite the slow start to in-shell contract agreements this year. Average prices in reported trades have risen on the back of some well-priced Australian-sourced deals.
Market trends over the past year have shown a widening of the kernel/NIS spread over the past twelve months. Given limited market visibility, MSM’s volume-weighted daily average kernel/NIS price spread calculation should be read as an estimated trendline indicating direction and magnitude rather than as providing detailed statistics.
Market Sentiment
Initial production forecasts from around the world are in and notional prices have been released to farmers in South Africa and Australia as farmers begin their harvests. This past week the International Council for Nuts and Dried Fruit (INC) published its statistical review for macadamias, forecasting a 6% rise in world supply (on an in-shell basis). South Africa’s outlook is good although early season high temperatures may impact nut size and weight. According to the INC, Growth in China’s production is expected to grow but quality remains a concern—NIS consumer sales were impacted in the last season by lower domestic quality resulting in surplus inventory after New Year celebrations. Severe weather in Australia, most recently through a cyclone, has caused a review of initial forecasts and the damage impact is still being assessed while Kenya looks set for a good production year. The United States and Guatemala look to bounce back from a bad season last year, while another bad year is expected for Brazil.
| INC ESTIMATED MACADAMIA PRODUCTION 2025 ON AN NIS BASIS (metric tons @ 3.5% moisture; as at March) | |||
| Country of Origin | 2024 | 2025 | Growth |
| South Africa | 89,200 | 95,500 | 7.1% |
| China | 69,500 | 74,500 | 7.2% |
| Australia | 53,950 | 56,890 | 5.5% |
| Kenya | 44,000 | 47,500 | 8.0% |
| United States | 15,000 | 15,500 | 3.3% |
| Malawi | 10,200 | 11,000 | 7.8% |
| Guatemala | 10,000 | 12,000 | 20.0% |
| Vietnam | 8,000 | 8,000 | 0.0% |
| Brazil | 6,500 | 5,000 | -23.1% |
| Rest of the world | 18,100 | 18,350 | 1.2% |
| TOTAL | 324,550 | 344,240 | 6.1% |
| INC ESTIMATED MACADAMIA PRODUCTION 2025 ON A KERNEL BASIS (metric tons @ 3.5% moisture; as at March) | |||
| Country of Origin | 2024 | 2025 | Growth |
| South Africa | 28,800 | 30,600 | 6.3% |
| China | 17,400 | 21,500 | 23.6% |
| Australia | 17,300 | 18,200 | 5.2% |
| Kenya | 8,800 | 9,500 | 8.0% |
| United States | 3,300 | 3,400 | 3.0% |
| Malawi | 2,500 | 2,800 | 12.0% |
| Guatemala | 2,000 | 2,400 | 20.0% |
| Vietnam | 2,000 | 2,000 | 0.0% |
| Brazil | 1,625 | 1,250 | -23.1% |
| Rest of the world | 4,495 | 4,530 | 0.1% |
| TOTAL | 88,220 | 96,180 | 9.0% |
Some processors in South Africa and Australia have recently announced their notional average farm-gate prices that supplying growers can expect. The announcements reflect what the processors believe they can achieve in the market and therefore what can be paid to producers. While the announced prices can still be influenced downwards by market conditions later into the year, they represent a significant improvement upon last year. Australia’s Marquis Macadamia announced a notional price of Aus$4.22, just over Aus$1.00 more than was offered at the outset of the 2024 season. Analysts have long held that profitable macadamia farming is difficult to achieve below Aus$4.00 so this offer will encourage farmers. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Global Macadamias has announced price increases of up to 37%, depending on quality and styles achieved at crackout. Other notional pricelists seen similarly offer South African farmers price improvements over 2024, depending on crackout rates and unsound kernel recoveries.
Higher notional offers are being supported by a strong recovery in kernel demand.
This demand itself is being supported by a significant increase in the use of macadamia in downstream food, milk alternatives and cosmetic product manufacture in the recent period. Global Macadamia CEO Shane Hartmann explains the significance of this development: “The ingredients and confectionary industries are doing exciting work to develop new products that contain macadamias. It’s a big investment to bring out a new product, which means that once macadamias are in, there is long-term, stable demand. With prices becoming more stable, steady demand is likely to follow suit. This is exactly what the industry needs right now, after the roller coaster prices we saw over the last decade.”
Kernel demand stimulation occurs at an important time in which young orchards in Australia, South Africa, China, and other origins are coming to fuller fruit. This means that stronger more steady demand will meet the greater supply, preventing a drop in prices and hopefully improving price predictability. At the same time, the development of a stronger value chain into more food and cosmetic streams means price increases need to be carefully managed, and suppliers will need to strengthen their understanding of product dynamics well beyond their immediate focus in order to sustain demand.
Freight Cost Watch
The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) is the benchmark container cost index, tracking 40ft container prices across 13 lanes around the globe. Container prices typically decline after the Lunar New Year but a number of issues, such as the Red Sea crisis which is seeing shipping diverted to longer routes, is keeping prices from declining strongly. The threat of a tariff war between the United States and its trading partners hangs over freight costs and may impact the FBX going forward.
Freight prices can be affected by oil prices, regional conflicts that cause longer shipping routes or delays, synchronised economic growth between the US and China leading to container shortages and storage imbalances, and port strikes.
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
The MSM trading platform has South African and Kenyan kernel offers available. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
Prices Open for Negotiation
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 131544 | 8 | 15.31 |
| Style 1S | 51030 | 3 | 13.75 |
| Style 4L | 68040 | 4 | 11.50 |
| Style 4S | 145152 | 9 | 10.53 |
| Style 5 | 39599.28 | 3 | 9.18 |
| Style 6 | 14560.56 | 2 | 7.20 |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10.1% Style 0, 50.6% Style 4S, 10.1% Style 5, 10.1% Style 6, 10.1% Style 7, 9.2% Style 8 | 16839.90 | 9.10 |
| 2.9% Style 0, 97.1% Style 1S | 3485.58 | 13.05 |
| 39% Style 1, 61% Style 1S | 3980.34 | 14.20 |
| 51.5% Style 0, 48.5% Style 1S | 5375.16 | 15.03 |
| 7.1% Style 1S, 92.9% Style 4S | 5465.88 | 10.64 |
| 76.8% Style 5, 23.2% Style 6 | 9514.26 | 8.66 |
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In The News…
21 March 2025: [Zimbabwe] Chinese buyers for avocado, macadamia
20 March 2025: Macadamias: upbeat estimates do not reflect market sentiments.
15 March 2025: Mozambique expands macadamia exports to China with new trade agreement.
15 March 2025: [Kenya] Farmers urged to deliver quality macadamia nuts, reject low prices.
14 March 2025: South African macadamia farmers set to gain from global rising prices.
13 March 2025: INC Macadamias Global Statistical Review
13 March 2025: Mozambique: Country bets on increasing macadamia exports.
13 March 2025: [Zimbabwe] Cashflow glitch delays Tanganda plant project.
12 March 2025: [Australia] First evidence of macadamia pricing for 2025!
12 March 2025: SA and EU to embrace at summit after both suffer Trump abuse.
12 March 2025: Ban on raw macadamia exports to continue, says Kagwe.
11 March 2025: 2025 Australian macadamia crop forecast delayed due to Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
11 March 2025: Nuts: tariffs to hit US industry hard.
7 March 2025: China Imposes 10% Additional Tariff on US Fruits and Nuts.
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Stratamarkets
In the past we’ve shared Stratamarkets Weekly Reports in this report to increase market transparency and encourage industry players to participate in the sharing of market information. Since the beginning of July 2024 this information is only available behind a Stratamarkets paywall.
Stratamarkets offer price reports for macadamias and other nuts. Please visit their website, and we encourage you to subscribe as a member. Stratamarkets offer a variety of subscription plans and incentives for access to valuable market information.
Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.