Dear Readers,
March 2025 marks a turning point in the global macadamia landscape. After a volatile few seasons, key developments in supply, trade policy, and consumer behavior are setting the tone for a complex and high-stakes year ahead. From a reshuffling of Chinese demand to the impact of US-imposed tariffs, the macadamia market is now more globally entangled than ever before. In this issue, we unpack the signals emerging from March activity—and what they mean for producers, processors, traders, and buyers navigating this dynamic terrain.
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Overview
The month of March delivered significant clarity to the market. Activity and news from both the kernel and NIS markets gave vital insight into dynamics that will shape the year. These include:
Crop forecasts are in, and notional offers are out: Early estimations of supply have been published. Key grower regions are expecting good years—to a large part because of younger orchards coming into fuller production—but recent extreme weather in Australia has raised some questions about early-harvest quality, while South Africa’s own hot weather with late rains has also raised concerns about average nut size achievable. Kenya looks set for a good production year while the United States and Guatemala look to bounce back from a bad season last year. Another bad year is expected for Brazil. Globally, supply is expected to increase by 6.1% when calculated on an NIS basis and 9.0% on a kernel basis. Major processors have released notional offers to farmers. By and large, conditional offers are a significant improvement upon last year, with Australian processors offering more than Aus$ 4.00/kg for the first time in a number of years. Assurance for break-even or profitable prices will encourage farmers and support crop improvements for 2026.
China’s demand will be more discerning and price sensitive: There is now widespread confirmation that China has macadamia inventory remaining from the recent New Year festive season. Apparently, the inventory is predominantly domestic product focused on inshell-snacking, which did not perform as well as kernel snacking and ingredient markets did during the celebrations. With expanding local production expected to contribute more to in-shell snacking needs in the future, Chinese demand is expected to be more discerning of international supply, seeking higher quality NIS that can be processed onshore for changing market tastes. In this regard, smaller NIS sizes such as NIS20-22 (which can produce Styles 1, 2, and 4), which are preferred by the market, may increase in importance while demand for other sizes may not. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council reports that the poor quality nature of domestic supply weakened consumer interest in in-shell snacking—this may also tip consumer preferences towards kernel products in the period ahead. Consumer markets are very competitive in China, and retail sentiment is low, so the redirection of NIS to onshore processing will put further bearish pressure on international prices as local manufacturers manage their returns. As it is now, the NIS market is much quieter than this time last year as suppliers hold out for better prices and seek kernel sales opportunities.
Kenya legislates for the supply of kernel again: The Kenyan government has reinstated a ban on the export of raw nuts; only kernel macadamias can be exported. The ban was temporarily lifted at the end of 2023 to give farmers access to alternative markets in the face of low prices from domestic processors as they faced low demand for kernel in that and previous seasons. Brokers were quick to enter the market and redirect product from processors for export as NIS to China, which led to a shortage of kernel supply from the country in 2024. And this in a time when the global markets significantly recovered in price and demand. Processors have welcomed the return of the ban, which is accompanied by a minimum farm-gate price to meet grower interests. The renewed ban has blocked the export of 2024 season NIS, already bought from farmers and stored in export warehouses in Kenya. This could increase supply of stock available for processing, in addition to this year’s harvest. Authorities, however, are concerned about smuggling of raw product out of the country. Processors are chasing kernel markets: As expected, rising kernel prices and the growing kernel/NIS spread has handlers favouring processing of nuts. South Africa’s Green Farms has not even released an NIS price offer at the present time “due to the significant stock carryover in China, together with the country’s ongoing economic challenges”, according to ProAgriMedia. The processor will focus on kernel markets.
Kernel prices have sustained during the demand recovery period: During the macadamia price recovery period, kernel prices have been less sensitive to demand recovery than NIS because they support a longer value chain of food and beauty products. Globally, kernel volumes increased despite stress in consumer markets in the US, Europe and China, while prices also increased by over a third in 2024 and have kept their levels in Q1 2025. Current price levels are also supported by inventory rebuilding by buyers in Europe and the United States. Sustaining the rate of product innovation, and therefore the stability of demand, will be important as inventory rebuilding is a short-term phenomenon. As can be seen in the case of NIS, inventories can become a source of downward price pressure in the season ahead if not consumed within the market season.
Monthly averages for kernel and NIS categories in transactions observed during the month of March are summarised in the charts below.
Immediate Outlook
Kernel markets look buoyant. Supply looks to increase this year while demand from a diverse range of markets appears to be growing even as prices are holding their levels. The stimulation of demand in the light of growing supply will be important both for prices and for longer-term handler perceptions of kernel markets. Stable, high-quality supply met with stable demand will go a long way to boosting the global industry, allowing market players to focus on quality and investment as they spend less energy trying to survive volatility. A key concern, however, will be the likely trade war that seems to have been sparked by the United States as the Trump administration seeks to promote American interests through the imposition of tariffs. These moves by the United States have caused alarm across the world and prompted major regions such as China, Canada, and the EU to consider and implement retaliatory tariffs. Nut trade will not be unscathed. Already, China has imposed a ten percent tariff on nut imports from the United States while the EU announced a 25% tariff on American almonds (implementation delayed to mid-April). The US pecan industry is closely integrated with Mexico, with some US pecans being processed there before being returned to the country.
The implementation of 25% tariffs on products being sent from Mexico to the United States is leading to pricing and profitability complexities for pecan producers and processors. South Africa had “reciprocal tariffs” of 30% imposed by the United States in early April. While the country’s agriculture will definitely be impacted, it is not yet clear if and how macadamia exports to the US will be affected. Australia is facing a 10% hike in tariffs.
The Trump administration has also questioned its Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides tariff-free access to African countries supplying into the US as long as they comply with a host of conditions. South Africa’s relations with the US have deteriorated, with many in Washington believing that the country has politically cut itself out of AGOA and its benefits. ProAgriMedia estimates South Africa’s exclusion from AGOA might result in an additional 5 US cents duty per kilogram of kernel, which it views as a “manageable blow” for the industry. The Trump administration favours bilateral agreements over multi-lateral ones and blanket laws such as AGOA. Given the stance of the administration towards South Africa, the jury is still out on whether the country can negotiate favourable terms for trade with the US.
Available on the MSM Trading Platform
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 131 544 | 8 | 15.31 EXW |
| Style 1S | 51 030 | 3 | 13.75 EXW |
| Style 4L | 554 526 | 34 | 11.50 EXW |
| Style 4S | 145 152 | 9 | 10.53 EXW |
| Style 5 | 39 599.28 | 3 | 9.18 EXW |
| Style 6 | 14 560.56 | 2 | 7.20 EXW |
| Total | 936 411.84 | 59 | 11.25 EXW |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10.1% Style 0, 50.6% Style 4S, 10.1% Style 5, 10.1% Style 6, 10.1% Style 7, 9.2% Style 8 | 16 839.90 | 9.10 EXW |
| 2.9% Style 0, 97.1% Style 1S | 3 485.58 | 13.05 EXW |
| 39% Style 1, 61% Style 1S | 3 980.34 | 14.20 EXW |
| 51.5% Style 0, 48.5% Style 1S | 5 375.16 | 15.03 EXW |
| 7.1% Style 1S, 92.9% Style 4S | 5 465.88 | 10.64 EXW |
| 76.8% Style 5, 23.2% Style 6 | 9 514.26 | 8.66 EXW |
| Total | 44 661.12 | 11.78 EXW |
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Trade Trends
The graphs below superimpose import volume and import value timelines for key macadamia nut markets for the past 20 months. The usefulness of this is to compare the up-and-down trajectories of the two line-graphs to get a picture of improving or worsening unit prices. Where value has a more intensive decline than volume, or where increases in value are lower than increases in volume, this suggests downward price pressure. Publication of trade statistics lags by some months, so trends will only become clearer as this year progresses.
Global trade faces uncertainty as the United States announces reciprocal tariffs on trading partners which have more protection against the import of American goods than the US has on goods imported from them. Macadamia nuts will not be unaffected by this move, but time will tell to what extent trade trends are disrupted. Stimulated by the price drops in 2023, demand for macadamias rose strongly in Japan, Europe, the US, and the United Kingdom during 2024. Imports to Taiwan also grew strongly in 2024. Meanwhile, Zambia has secured tariff-free access to China for macadamia nuts.
In The News…
3 April 2025: [South Africa] Trump’s tariffs to disrupt global trade.
3 April 2025: What Donald Trump’s tariffs could mean for Australian exports.
28 March 2025: [South Africa] Macadamia prices continue to rebound.
26 March 2025: Unveiling Taiwanese Appetite for Tree Nuts.
26 March 2025: Macadamias: Cyclone damage less than feared.
24 March 2025: UH Economists Talk About Trump’s Impact On Hawaiʻi.
24 March 2025: [Australia] Quiet-achiever asset class gets on with the job.
24 March 2025: [Zimbabwe] Opportunities exist in the macadamia, pecan sub-sector.
21 March 2025: [Australia] Ex-Cyclone Alfred costs NSW farmers millions in stock loss and damage .
20 March 2025: [Australia] Cyclone Alfred’s Impact on Macadamia Farms in the Nambucca Valley.