Foreword
Dear readers,
This week’s report comes at a critical time. Global macadamia markets are shifting fast—U.S. tariffs are shaking trade flows, kernel supply is tightening, and the NIS-to-kernel price spread is pushing sellers to recalibrate. If you’re in the game, now’s the time to stay sharp, get informed, and make sure your listings are keeping pace with opportunity.
We will be working to deliver more comprehensive data, statistics and trend analysis, supporting you in your trading journey. We encourage you to head on over to the platform and check out the listings that have been made, add or adjust your own, and see where buyers are bidding for stock. Remember that all prices listed on the platform are negotiable.
If you need a refresher on MSM and the platform, click on the links in the next paragraph to get reacquainted with why the platform exists, what it seeks to achieve, and a practical run-through on how to trade on it.
Managing Director – Cobus Kok
Click here for a refresher on why platform trading is important, what the MSM platform specifically seeks to do, and who MSM as a company is.
Click here for a practical run-through of how to trade and make best use of the MSM trading platform (including FAQs).
If you need any assistance, call or WhatsApp message us on +26 67 3312720, WeChat at MSMMacNuts, or simply hit reply to this email.
Macadamia Price Trends
The graphs below compare prices in observed transactions for the most recent five-week period of 2025 (Weeks 10 to 14) with the previous five-week period (Weeks 5 to 9).
Observed in-shell prices in the last five weeks averaged $3.46/kg CIF for NIS22+ and $3.02/kg CIF for NIS20-22 (for all origins, all destinations).
The kernel market has been particularly active this year as suppliers have been incentivised by the kernel-NIS price spread to focus on negotiating deals for processed nuts. Suppliers have resisted settling on lower-priced NIS bids while buyers have resisted paying more. As a Chinese market analyst writes: “Chinese buyers are currently in talks with South African suppliers of shell nuts, but price expectations on both sides are still too far apart, meaning that more kernels will be left for sale in South Africa and Kenya.” As inventories reduce in China while kernel prices retain their bullish tone, buyers may begin to accept higher prices for in-shell orders. Shipping to China generally escalates in June each year for product to reach consumers in time for key sales periods, leaving little time for NIS market conditions to significantly alter.
Market Sentiment
Whatever clarity the month of March brought to the market was upended in early April by the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the United States on its trading partners. The impact is expected to be significant for macadamias. The US is the world’s largest macadamia kernel market, while China is the biggest in-shell export destination for US macadamia suppliers. Uncertainty intensified a week later when US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day “pause” on implementation of these tariffs in response to appeals by governments around the globe to negotiate better trade relations.
Suppliers in major origin countries such as South Africa, Australia, Kenya, and Guatemala are trying to process developments and are considering how the imposition of tariffs will affect global market prices and demand in what was expected to be a year of good prices and continued demand recovery. However, the situation is fluid and is constantly developing. The Trump administration has encouraged countries to negotiate in response to the tariff announcements, and this remains a key factor for the near future. After a recent trip of South African business leaders to the United States, AgriSA’s Johan Kotze confirmed there was openness for negotiation. He cautioned that delegations should focus on what deals are possible rather than trying to correct perceptions or to justify positions. Many of the details related to the reciprocal tariffs have not yet been rolled out, and there is uncertainty over which products are affected and by how much and, more recently, what the timeline of implementation is. SAMAC joined other voices in calling for calm and perspective. Empire’s Pieter van der Westhuizen pointed out to online magazine African Farming this past week that because there are global kernel shortages, there may be a redistribution of markets among producing countries because the tariffs are uneven.
Whatever clarity the month of March brought to the market was upended in early April by the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the United States on its trading partners. The impact is expected to be significant for macadamias. The US is the world’s largest macadamia kernel market, while China is the biggest in-shell export destination for US macadamia suppliers. Uncertainty intensified a week later when US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day “pause” on implementation of these tariffs in response to appeals by governments around the globe to negotiate better trade relations.
Suppliers in major origin countries such as South Africa, Australia, Kenya, and Guatemala are trying to process developments and are considering how the imposition of tariffs will affect global market prices and demand in what was expected to be a year of good prices and continued demand recovery. However, the situation is fluid and is constantly developing. The Trump administration has encouraged countries to negotiate in response to the tariff announcements, and this remains a key factor for the near future. After a recent trip of South African business leaders to the United States, AgriSA’s Johan Kotze confirmed there was openness for negotiation. He cautioned that delegations should focus on what deals are possible rather than trying to correct perceptions or to justify positions. Many of the details related to the reciprocal tariffs have not yet been rolled out, and there is uncertainty over which products are affected and by how much and, more recently, what the timeline of implementation is. SAMAC joined other voices in calling for calm and perspective. Empire’s Pieter van der Westhuizen pointed out to online magazine African Farming this past week that because there are global kernel shortages, there may be a redistribution of markets among producing countries because the tariffs are uneven.
Freight Cost Watch
The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) is a benchmark container cost index, tracking 40ft container prices across 13 lanes around the globe. Container prices typically decline after the Lunar New Year, but several issues, such as the Red Sea crisis, which has caused shipping to divert to longer routes, are keeping prices from declining strongly. The threat of a tariff war between the United States and its trading partners hangs over freight costs and may impact the FBX going forward.
Freight prices can be affected by oil prices, regional conflicts that cause longer shipping routes or delays, synchronised economic growth between the US and China leading to container shortages and storage imbalances, and port strikes.
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
The MSM trading platform has South African and Kenyan kernel offers available. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
Prices Open for Negotiation
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 199 584 | 11 | 15.14 EXW |
| Style 1S | 85 050 | 5 | 13.77 EXW |
| Style 4L | 588 546 | 36 | 11.50 EXW |
| Style 4S | 162 162 | 10 | 10.47 EXW |
| Style 5 | 39 599 | 3 | 9.18 EXW |
| Style 6 | 28 169 | 3 | 6.70 EXW |
| Total | 1 103 110 | 68 | 11.13 EXW |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10.1% Style 0, 50.6% Style 4S, 10.1% Style 5, 10.1% Style 6, 10.1% Style 7, 9.2% Style 8 | 16 839.90 | 9.10 EXW |
| 2.9% Style 0, 97.1% Style 1S | 3 485.58 | 13.05 EXW |
| 39% Style 1, 61% Style 1S | 3 980.34 | 14.20 EXW |
| 51.5% Style 0, 48.5% Style 1S | 5 375.16 | 15.03 EXW |
| 7.1% Style 1S, 92.9% Style 4S | 5 465.88 | 10.64 EXW |
| 76.8% Style 5, 23.2% Style 6 | 9 514.26 | 8.66 EXW |
| Total | 44 661.12 | 11.78 EXW |
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In The News…
10 April 2025: Macadamia exporter wary of U.S. tariffs on South African exports.
9 April 2025: [United States] 6 Foods That Will Likely Be Impacted By the New Tariffs.
9 April 2025: [Australia] Ian shares stories of macadamia industry
9 April 2025: Zimtrade hosts China buyers mission for avocados, macadamias.
8 April 2025: Chelmer Foods Macadamia Update.
6 April 2025: [South Africa] Macadamia exporters react to 30% US tariff: ‘Don’t panic’.
4 April 2025: [United States] Higher prices are likely for these 10 grocery items when tariffs hit.
3 April 2025: All with zero tariffs! China will import macadamia nuts from Zambia.
3 April 2025: What Donald Trump’s tariffs could mean for Australian exports.
What does MSM Offer You?
MSM not only provides market information through these updates, we offer solutions. We’re continuously growing and improving the tools available for every stakeholder in the industry to better position themselves in this ever-changing landscape. Click the link below to read more.
Stratamarkets
In the past we’ve shared Stratamarkets Weekly Reports in this report to increase market transparency and encourage industry players to participate in the sharing of market information. Since the beginning of July 2024 this information is only available behind a Stratamarkets paywall.
Stratamarkets offer price reports for macadamias and other nuts. Please visit their website, and we encourage you to subscribe as a member. Stratamarkets offer a variety of subscription plans and incentives for access to valuable market information.
Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.