Foreword
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In the market this week:
Price averages have softened for most styles, with Styles 4L and 5 showing some resilience. In-shell trade remains sluggish, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and trade uncertainty. The US-China tariff pause adds complexity, with some buyers cautiously waiting for better opportunities, though Chinese demand for certain styles may still tighten supply.
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Macadamia Price Trends
The graphs below compare prices in observed transactions from the most recent five-week period of 2025 (Weeks 13 to 17) with the previous five-week period (Weeks 8 to 12). Movements in average prices reflect a quietening of observed transactions. Most styles are down in comparison to the previous five-week period, except for Style 4L and Style 5, which show a rise in average price.
NIS prices show a decline in average prices between the two five-week periods. Across the board, in-shell trade has been quiet this year, affected by higher kernel prices.
The moving average of the kernel/NIS spread has declined over most of April after a strong rise in the spread from January to March. Given limited market visibility, MSM’s volume-weighted daily average kernel/NIS price spread calculation should be read as an estimated trendline indicating direction and magnitude rather than as providing detailed statistics.
Market Sentiment
The United States’ protectionist policies, together with the dramatic way they’ve been introduced and later paused, have caused a slowdown in global trade as international business manages this period of uncertainty. Analysts and shipping companies are highlighting a significant slowdown in trade between the US and China. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5% because of the trade impact of the US tariffs and China’s own tariff response.
The slowdown appears to have affected macadamia trade as well as the market has been quiet in recent weeks. A week after announcing the new tariffs, President Trump announced a 90-day pause in their implementation (except for those placed on China). The pause will be in place until 8 July 2025. Depending on their short positions and market pressures, buyers and sellers may strategically wait it out for better price opportunity down the line. But given macadamia shipping cycles and preparations for festive seasons, waiting the full period out may be challenging. There may be some distressed deals where cashflow or the pressure of immediate obligations means companies compromise on their ideal prices. There is reportedly high demand from China for smaller macadamia whole styles, but current price levels are causing buyers to hold off. The question is for how long, since China’s local production is unlikely to supply all that it needs for these styles, and it will remain dependent on imports. Trends in this next period therefore remain uncertain.
Exchange Rate Watch
Global currency markets have been defined by US dollar weakness this year, but the recent escalation of trade tensions, particularly with China, has led to volatility in exchange rates of macadamia supplying countries.
Freight Cost Watch
The trade war between the United States and China and the uncertainty for numerous countries created by the implementation of the pause of US tariffs is starting to affect global trade. Cargo volumes have become difficult to predict since President Trump announced a 90-day pause in tariff implementation. Roland Berger consulting firm transport specialist Alexandre Charpentier told AFP on 23 April: “In the three weeks leading up to the announcement, we saw a slowdown in trade and many ships were only 50 percent full on the transatlantic and transpacific trades to the United States”. However, in the week after the announcement, “people want to ship as much as possible to the United States, they’re destocking and there has been a rush for space”. As trade in the China-US lanes has slowed, so regional trade in Asia around China has increased. China has also pivoted some of its imports from the US to countries like Australia and Brazil. Ultimately, it is anticipated that freight rates will fall as they did during the first Trump administration’s trade tussle with China.
Available NOW on the MSM Trading Platform
The MSM trading platform has kernel offers available from several countries. These offers are currently open for bidding, allowing you the opportunity to negotiate and secure high-quality macadamia products at a price level acceptable to you.
We will eagerly assist you in brokering any transaction listed on the platform that might be of interest to you.
Prices Open for Negotiation
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 199 584 | 11 | 15.14 EXW |
| Style 1S | 85 050 | 5 | 13.87 EXW |
| Style 4L | 588 546 | 36 | 11.50 EXW |
| Style 4S | 162 162 | 10 | 10.47 EXW |
| Style 5 | 39 599 | 3 | 9.18 EXW |
| Style 6 | 28 169 | 3 | 6.70 EXW |
| Total | 1 103 110 | 68 | 11.13 EXW |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10% Style 0, 50.13% Style 4S, 10% Style 5, 10% Style 6, 10% Style 7, 9.13% Style 8 | 16 839.90 | 9.10 EXW |
| 137 Bxs Style 1, 214 Bxs Style 1S | 3 980.36 | 14.20 EXW |
| 9 Bxs Style 0, 298 Bxs Style 1S | 3 485.58 | 13.05 EXW |
| 244 Bxs Style 0, 230 Bxs Style 1S | 5 375.16 | 15.03 EXW |
| 644 Bxs Style 5, 195 Bxs Style 6 | 9 514.26 | 8.66 EXW |
| 34 Bxs Style 1S, 448 Bxs Style 4S | 5 465.88 | 10.64 EXW |
| 650 Bxs Style 5, 800 Bxs DP (6 – 14mm, diced pieces and halves, No Immature Nuts) | 16 443.00 | 6.64 EXW |
| 190 Bxs Style 0, 550 Bxs Style 2, 150 Bxs Style 5, 70 Bxs Style 6, 77 Bxs Style 7, 230 Bxs C1 (>14mm, 99% wholes, Minor Defects, No Immature Nuts), 183 Bxs DP (6–14mm, diced pieces and halves, No Immature Nuts) | 16 443.00 | 10.53 EXW |
| Total | 77 547.00 | 10.98 EXW |
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In The News…
24 April 2025: Kenya seeks tariff-free access to China for macadamia nuts.
18 April 2025: Zim Eyes Chinese Market to Boost Avocado, Macadamia Exports.
17 April 2025: Chinese investors set sight on Zimbabwe’s avocado, macadamia exports.
15 April 2025: Ariston’s Macadamia Production Rises 3%, Narrows Loss Position.
11 April 2025: Exotic EPZ—How three women revamped Kenya’s macadamia fruit industry.
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Disclaimer:
While we strive to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information provided in our market review newsletters, we cannot guarantee its completeness or correctness. The data and insights presented are based on the best available sources and our thorough analysis. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and unforeseen factors may impact the accuracy of this information. Therefore, MSM cannot be held responsible or liable for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the content of these newsletters.