Dear Readers,
April is typically a quieter period in the macadamia trade cycle, and this year was no exception—on the surface. Beneath the calm, global economic uncertainty loomed large, driven by shifting US tariff policies and evolving Chinese demand. While kernel sales softened, demand for smaller NIS sizes surged, narrowing key price spreads and hinting at changing consumption trends. As festive season procurement begins to stir, market participants are watching closely. The coming months will reveal whether 2025 holds to seasonal norms—or defies them.
Changes for the Report
As you know, we are elevating our market intelligence efforts to better support platform participants with enhanced market information assistance and are going to intensify We had planned to restrict free access to these reports from 1 May. However, due to some unexpected delays with our payment partner, we will have to delay until a convenient online payment method is in place.
- If you are already registered to trade on the MSM platform, you will continue to receive the reports as usual, at no cost.
- If you are not yet registered, you still have time to sign up as a buyer or seller to continue to receive these reports for free.
- If you want to continue to receive the reports without registering as a trader, you can register as a subscription member at the current discounted rate of $5 per month for a limited time (or $50 upfront for a 12-month subscription) as soon as a convenient means of payment is activated.
We will keep you updated and make the transition as smooth as possible once the payment system is ready.
Now, more than ever, access to real-time, verified market information is critical. The MSM platform offers market participants an independent, structured environment to trade, price, and plan with confidence when external conditions are volatile.
If you need any assistance, call or message us on +2767 331 2720, or simply hit reply to this email.
Overview
March and April each year are normally quiet trading months in the annual macadamia marketing cycle, with the rate of transactions picking up from May. This April proved no different. However, the global economy this year is experiencing anything but “normal”, and uncertainty prevails over the direction of the United States’ economy and the impact this will have on world trade. In the first two quarters, business first responded to this uncertainty through a surge in imports to the US ahead of the expected implementation of tariffs and more recently through a pause to see if implementation would indeed go ahead on shipments arriving at American ports after 8 July. A similar surge-and-pause trend was noticed during President Donald Trump’s first term when he also raised tariffs. The inventory frontloading is seen as the reason for the US economy’s 0.3% contraction in the first quarter of this year. Macadamia imports to the US also rose in January and February this year to a combined US$18m, nearly US$6m higher than the same two-month period in 2024. A rise in the value of trade was experienced by most major origins. More recently, the slowdown in kernel transactions into April after a strong start to the year suggests a wait-and-see approach among US buyers at present.
Meanwhile, the 18th Nut & Dried Fruit Food Expo in Hefei this past month confirmed China’s sustained demand for macadamias. Besides traditional in-shell purchases, the mainstay of demand, Chinese buyers have been increasingly favouring smaller-sized NIS for onshore cracking in response to evolving consumer demand for more processed macadamia products. Various sources this year have maintained that Style 1S is in high demand in China and that this is driving demand for NIS20-22, which can be cracked at lower rates than offshore. Certainly, the price spread between NIS20-22 and the larger NIS22+ in observed transactions has narrowed sharply since December 2024 as prices for NIS20-22 have risen.
Demand for NIS20-22 continues despite prices rising, according to a European trader. Meanwhile, China’s tariffs on US nut imports are making macadamias (sourced from elsewhere in the world) more attractive as a substitute product. This demand, at a time when kernel sales have quietened, has stopped the widening of the kernel/NIS price spread seen since the beginning of the year. Given limited market visibility, MSM’s volume-weighted daily average kernel/NIS price spread calculation in the graph below should be read as an estimated trendline indicating direction and magnitude rather than as providing detailed statistics.
NIS prices have been the big sticking issue in the first quarter, leading to a quieter start to the year. However, it appears that buyers and suppliers are starting to find each other as pressure builds to secure stocks for the festive retail period ahead. March and April have seen an uptick in observed NIS transactions.
Average Prices
Average monthly prices in observed transactions fell slightly in April for Style 0, Style 1, Style 2, and Style 6 compared to March, but rose for Style 1S and Style 4L. Average monthly prices for NIS22+ in April fell compared to March, but NIS20-22 prices have remained steady over the two months.
The implementation of 25% tariffs on products being sent from Mexico to the United States is leading to pricing and profitability complexities for pecan producers and processors. South Africa had “reciprocal tariffs” of 30% imposed by the United States in early April. While the country’s agriculture will definitely be impacted, it is not yet clear if and how macadamia exports to the US will be affected. Australia is facing a 10% hike in tariffs.
The Trump administration has also questioned its Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides tariff-free access to African countries supplying into the US as long as they comply with a host of conditions. South Africa’s relations with the US have deteriorated, with many in Washington believing that the country has politically cut itself out of AGOA and its benefits. ProAgriMedia estimates South Africa’s exclusion from AGOA might result in an additional 5 US cents duty per kilogram of kernel, which it views as a “manageable blow” for the industry. The Trump administration favours bilateral agreements over multi-lateral ones and blanket laws such as AGOA. Given the stance of the administration towards South Africa, the jury is still out on whether the country can negotiate favourable terms for trade with the US.
Immediate Outlook
Uncertainty over if, how, and when the US tariffs will be implemented is the primary “known unknown” that is characterising the global economy now. South Africa and Kenya are more exposed to US markets than other origins, but South Africa potentially faces a stiff 31% tariff while Kenya might only have 10% tariffs imposed on its goods to America. The price impact of tariffs could cause some restructuring of sourcing by US buyers, but they are ultimately dependent on the kernel volumes that South Africa produces. Meanwhile, if alternative kernel markets are slow to come, NIS sales may become more attractive to processors again, especially under sustained Chinese demand. The wait-and-see approach can only last so long as cashflow and market pressures build, and shipping for the festive season retail ahead needs to sail. The market is again seeking clarity while the current juncture in the year’s trade cycle makes it difficult to truly assess trends. May to December are traditionally big months for macadamia trade, buyers and suppliers will be hoping it will remain the case for 2025.
Available on the MSM Trading Platform
| Single Style Offers Available | |||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Containers | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| Style 1 | 199 584 | 11 | 15.14 EXW |
| Style 1S | 85 050 | 5 | 13.87 EXW |
| Style 4L | 588 546 | 36 | 11.50 EXW |
| Style 4S | 162 162 | 10 | 10.47 EXW |
| Style 5 | 39 599 | 3 | 9.18 EXW |
| Style 6 | 28 169 | 3 | 6.70 EXW |
| Total | 1 103 110 | 68 | 11.13 EXW |
| Mixed Style Offers Available | ||
| Style | Quantity (kg) | Avg Opening Price per kg (USD EXW) |
| 10% Style 0, 50.13% Style 4S, 10% Style 5, 10% Style 6, 10% Style 7, 9.13% Style 8 | 16 839.90 | 9.10 EXW |
| 137 Bxs Style 1, 214 Bxs Style 1S | 3 980.36 | 14.20 EXW |
| 9 Bxs Style 0, 298 Bxs Style 1S | 3 485.58 | 13.05 EXW |
| 244 Bxs Style 0, 230 Bxs Style 1S | 5 375.16 | 15.03 EXW |
| 644 Bxs Style 5, 195 Bxs Style 6 | 9 514.26 | 8.66 EXW |
| 34 Bxs Style 1S, 448 Bxs Style 4S | 5 465.88 | 10.64 EXW |
| 650 Bxs Style 5, 800 Bxs DP (6 – 14mm, diced pieces and halves, No Immature Nuts) | 16 443.00 | 6.64 EXW |
| 190 Bxs Style 0, 550 Bxs Style 2, 150 Bxs Style 5, 70 Bxs Style 6, 77 Bxs Style 7, 230 Bxs C1 (>14mm, 99% wholes, Minor Defects, No Immature Nuts), 183 Bxs DP (6–14mm, diced pieces and halves, No Immature Nuts) | 16 443.00 | 10.53 EXW |
| Total | 77 547.00 | 10.98 EXW |
Are you interested but not sure where to start?
Call us:+27 67 331 2720
WhatsApp us:+27 67 331 2720
Trade Trends
The graphs below superimpose import volume and import value timelines for key macadamia nut markets for the past 20 months. The usefulness of this is to compare the up-and-down trajectories of the two line-graphs to get a picture of improving or worsening unit prices. Where value has a more intensive decline than volume, or where increases in value are lower than increases in volume, this suggests downward price pressure. Publication of trade statistics lags by some months, so trends will only become clearer as this year progresses.The graphs below superimpose import volume and import value timelines for key macadamia nut markets for the past 20 months. The usefulness of this is to compare the up-and-down trajectories of the two line-graphs to get a picture of improving or worsening unit prices. Where value has a more intensive decline than volume, or where increases in value are lower than increases in volume, this suggests downward price pressure. Publication of trade statistics lags by some months, so trends will only become clearer as this year progresses.
In The News…
3 May 2025: Their Packaging Implies the Mac Nuts Are Hawai‘i Grown. They’re Not.
2 May 2025: [Zimbabwe] Macadamia exports surges by 77pc.
1 May 2025: Tariff fears extend to Hawaii shipping.
30 April 2025: Weather and trade impact Australia’s horticulture in April 2025.